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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?


Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

Less than 8 million 61 6.92%
8.0 - 9.9 million 45 5.11%
10.0 - 11.9 million 88 9.99%
12.0 - 13.9 million 118 13.39%
14.0 - 15.9 million 203 23.04%
16.0 - 17.9 million 122 13.85%
18.0 - 19.9 million 105 11.92%
20.0 - 21.9 million 61 6.92%
22.0 - 24.0 million 18 2.04%
More than 24 million 60 6.81%

Depends what they can make. But the gen over gen comparison is more important to follow imo

Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 


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10-11.9 million

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.

1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.

2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.

3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.

4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.

1.  "People are used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics...."  Compared to what?  Do you have anything specific you are referencing here?

2.  The industry handles recessions well.  That doesn't mean the PS5 will handle recessions well.  During recessions people buy the cheaper systems.  For example 2008 was the peak calendar year for both the Wii and the DS, and this was the year when the last recession started.  This recession will not be good for the PS5.

3.  I think you basically agreed with me on this one.

4.  Launch performance is neither a good sign nor a bad sign.  It doesn't mean anything.

Think this way. Nintendo Wii is a console designed for bad macroeconomics years. Gamecube, with good macroeconomics, go horrible, just imagine in bad macroeconomics trend 

Ps5 is designer for bad macroeconomics trends?

I don't know. At first glance, the consumption of videogame goes high because all other types of entertainment are off. Then macroeconomics go worst and maybe the "good sells" will dry.  

Ryng said:

10-11.9 million

That's quite low as prediction goes. What are the factors that make you think it'll be slower than the PS4 right out the gate?

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badskywalker said:
Medisti said:

It’s also important to note that PS4 didn’t launch in Japan until months later. PS5 includes Japanese sales already, whereas PS4’s so far would not.

This is the primary reason I think the PS5 will do about as good, if not a little worse. One can make many arguments over PS5 shipments for both sides, but in the end we will have to wait and see.

I expect PS5 to sell just under PS4 once the Japanese PS4 numbers come in, but not by very much. It’s experienced big growth in other regions that’ll basically offset the near-total abandonment of the Japanese market. Likely Sony’s plan anyway.

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Ryng said:

10-11.9 million

I remember you were predicting record breaking PS5 sales a few months ago. Whats with the low 2021 sales, do you expect the stock situation to be that bad?

I went with 10-11.9 million cause I see covid still causing a lot of complications well into the year, affecting sales, distribution, development of titles. However, I do have a gut feeling I'm wrong.

I'm gona go with around 18m because it's speculated thats what Sony are planing to make this year. Since they seem to be having astellear output of games, supply will be the only factor.

As for my game I would uave said god of war but I really dont see that coming this year so I will say ratchet and clank then.

It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

About 16 million.

If they could make enough of the darn things, 20-23 million.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

jason1637 said:
Ryng said:

10-11.9 million

I remember you were predicting record breaking PS5 sales a few months ago. Whats with the low 2021 sales, do you expect the stock situation to be that bad?

I always predicted PS5 launch > PS4 launch , but that would not last for long.

for the first year i expect PS5 to do less than PS4

And i won't lie so far PS5 did worse than i expected...