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Forums - Sales Discussion - Extra Easy Prediction: The PS4 won't be the eighth gen console with the best post-successor sales

Mnementh said:
KLXVER said:

I nominate the Iphone 7 then...

Oh, so 3DS is no gen 8 console. Doesn't count because *insert stupid reason here*.

Do you have something substantial to add to the thread or did you come here to be obnoxious?

Sure. The 3DS doesnt have a successor since the Switch is the successor to the WiiU. Unless you call it a successor to both which doesnt seem fair to the PS4 or XB1. Also the PS2 was like 100 bucks after the PS3 launced. No Sony console has been that cheap ever since. So this is a thread created to stir up shit with Sony fans and you need to not take it so seriously. 



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Doctor_MG said:

This is all with regard to "post-successor" sales, so a lot of your data isn't relevant. The PS3 didn't receive a successor until 7 years into it's life, the PSP didn't receive a successor until 7 years into it's life, the PS4 didn't receive a successor until 7 years into its life. PS Vita never received a successor. Using five years as an indicator really isn't helpful. What I think would be better is a graph that shows the increase in sales the the following years after the successor launched. 

The 5 year sales data is specifically to counter the notion that this "PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting" is false, when it is not.

Yes the data isn't relevant to the "post-successor" sales in the prediction, that's why I addressed that below the table.

Here is post successor data:

Before Successor After Successor % After Successor
PS2 117.89m (March 2007) 39.79m 25.20%
PS1 72.97m 29.57m 28.83%
DS 142.89m 12m 7.74%
3DS 64.5m 11.3m 14.90%
PSP 72.305m 8.79m 10.83%
PS3 79.22m 8.19m 9.37%
Xbox 360 79.76m 6.04m 7.04%
Wii 96.85m 4.79m 4.70%
Gamecube 21.2m (Sept 2006) 0.54m 2.48%
Wii U 13.47m 0.5m 3.58%
Xbox 24m (December 2005) 0.5m 2.04%
N64 32.71m (Sept 2001) 0.21m 0.64%

PS4 would need 9.03% of it's total sales to come after the PS5 to match the 3DS. So it can still do it while still having the worst relative post-successor performance for any PlayStation console.

Though again I still give 3DS a slight edge, but it will be very close.

Last edited by Barkley - on 30 November 2020

Barkley said:

The 5 year sales data is specifically to counter the notion that this "PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting" is false, when it is not.

Yes the data isn't relevant to the "post-successor" sales in the prediction, that's why I addressed that below the table.

Here is post successor data:

Before Successor After Successor % After Successor
PS2 117.89m (March 2007) 39.79m 25.20%
PS1 72.97m 29.57m 28.83%
DS 142.89m 12m 7.74%
3DS 64.5m 11.3m 14.90%
PSP 72.305m 8.79m 10.83%
PS3 79.22m 8.19m 9.37%
Xbox 360 79.76m 6.04m 7.04%
Wii 96.85m 4.79m 4.70%
Gamecube 21.2m (Sept 2006) 0.54m 2.48%
Wii U 13.47m 0.5m 3.58%
Xbox 24m (December 2005) 0.5m 2.04%
N64 32.71m (Sept 2001) 0.21m 0.64%

Okay, but it seems like you didn't read the rest of the sentence. "Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, because the PS4 will already be the fourth PS console in a row (PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4) that didn't come anywhere close to the post-successor sales of the PS1 and PS2.".

It was with regard to post successor sales...that entire sentence was. Basically people have been stating that Sony consoles are incredibly long lasting in comparison to all other consoles because the PS1 and PS2 were incredibly long lasting after their successors launched. However, the graph you provided gives me a different picture. The DS and 3DS outperformed the PSP and PS3 after their successors launched. The 360 did almost as well as the PS3 with regard to post successor sales. This shows me that, by and large, OP is right. The first two Playstation consoles had incredible legs, but the consoles afterwards aren't significantly different from other successful consoles. 

There have been many individuals that I've argued with that suggested the PS4 would beat the PS2 sales because the PS2 sold almost 40M after the PS3 released, and the PS4 was, for a time, outpacing the PS2. Which, based on recent sales data, is just false. In fact, at this rate the PS4 may not reach 120M consoles sold. In other words, I agree that we need to step away from this worldview that Sony consoles are so incredibly long lasting they will sell for years and years after their successors come. It hasn't been the case for two generations and three (and a half?) consoles now. 

Edit: To add, based on Nintendo's financial data the GBA sold roughly 16M additional units after the DS arrived and the Gameboy sold an additional 4M units after the GBA arrived.

Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 30 November 2020

The PS3 sold ~500k units in Japan after the PS4 had launched. The PS4 has flatlined in the last several months, so it would already be an accomplishment if it managed another 200k until the end of its life.

The PS3 sold ~1.6m in the USA after the PS4 had launched. The PS4 hasn't been in any better shape lately, so that's another major market where it will fall short. October NPD painted a worse picture than it actually is, but it's easy to recognize in which direction the wind is blowing nonetheless.

Globally, the PS3 sold ~7.5m units after the PS4 had launched. The PS4 will have to rely on Europe (mostly the eastern half) and mainland Asia to match or exceed that figure.

However, the actual target is ~11.4m achieved by the 3DS, so for the PS4 Europe and mainland Asia will have to pull a lot of the weight. Which means that Sony's strategy for those regions will have to drastically differ from what they are doing in Japan and America.

...

Alternatively, we can calculate with shipments. The first thing to know is that the PS4 has sold through ~114.0m by the time the PS5 launched, so it needs to get above 125.0m in its lifetime. The decline in shipments has accelerated: In the fiscal year ending March 2018 the PS4 had shipped 19.0m, followed by 17.8m and 13.6m; the current fiscal year is projected to be 9.0m which would bring the PS4's LTD shipments to 119.4m. In other words, another ~6.0m will still be missing by March 2021 and that's a longshot when you consider that Sony wants a fast transition from the PS4 to the PS5.

For too long Sony has not made one last big push to increase PS4 sales (i.e. a price cut) and they aren't going to change their mind now when the PS5 is what they want to sell. The PS4 Pro's production has likely ended already, because its price point makes it pretty pointless in comparison to the PS5 SKUs. A standard PS4 for $/€300 doesn't look great when people can buy a backwards compatible $/€400-500 next generation console. Plus there's the used market which is going to have an increased influx of second hand PS4s due to not-so-well-off people trying to get the funds for a PS5 and a bunch of games.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Doctor_MG said:

Okay, but it seems like you didn't read the rest of the sentence. "Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, because the PS4 will already be the fourth PS console in a row (PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4) that didn't come anywhere close to the post-successor sales of the PS1 and PS2."

Well then my problem is more that a console doesn't have to have good post-successor sales to be "long-lasting". A console that is still selling 7 years later is better lasting than a console that dies after 5. Regardless of when the successor came out.

PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, this is a fact, post-successor sales are irrelevant to this statement because it's the wrong metric to use.



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Doctor_MG said:

Okay, but it seems like you didn't read the rest of the sentence. "Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, because the PS4 will already be the fourth PS console in a row (PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4) that didn't come anywhere close to the post-successor sales of the PS1 and PS2.".

It was with regard to post successor sales...that entire sentence was. Basically people have been stating that Sony consoles are incredibly long lasting in comparison to all other consoles because the PS1 and PS2 were incredibly long lasting after their successors launched. However, the graph you provided gives me a different picture. The DS and 3DS outperformed the PSP and PS3 after their successors launched. The 360 did almost as well as the PS3 with regard to post successor sales. This shows me that, by and large, OP is right. The first two Playstation consoles had incredible legs, but the consoles afterwards aren't significantly different from other successful consoles. 

There have been many individuals that I've argued with that suggested the PS4 would beat the PS2 sales because the PS2 sold almost 40M after the PS3 released, and the PS4 was, for a time, outpacing the PS2. Which, based on recent sales data, is just false. In fact, at this rate the PS4 may not reach 120M consoles sold. In other words, I agree that we need to step away from this worldview that Sony consoles are so incredibly long lasting they will sell for years and years after their successors come. It hasn't been the case for two generations and three (and a half?) consoles now. 

Indeed, that is exactly the point I was making. In recent years it has been most prevalent in Switch vs. PS4 lifetime predictions that people gave Switch no chance because Nintendo consoles supposedly decline fast while Sony consoles supposedly last super long. But when you look at all the data, there has been no special difference between successful Nintendo and Sony consoles in quite some time.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Barkley said:

Well then my problem is more that a console doesn't have to have good post-successor sales to be "long-lasting". A console that is still selling 7 years later is better lasting than a console that dies after 5. Regardless of when the successor came out.

PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, this is a fact, post-successor sales are irrelevant to this statement because it's the wrong metric to use.

"post-successor sales are irrelevant"

No they are not, a console that is better selling will generally have much longer support before a successor is introduced, so just looking at the years doesn't present a whole picture as that is going to be mostly indicative of just consoles that have sold well in general. I mean, if we really were to split hairs then Nintendo would probably have one of the highest post-five year sales for consoles because of the Gameboy and NES. Yet most people consider Nintendo the worst when it comes to sales longevity because of the Wii and Gamecube. 

Anyway, to the point, it is an important consideration when predicting the lifetime sales for a console. If the PS4 had post successor sales as great as the PS2 it would end up at approximately 160M and be THE best selling console of all time, but the second that a PS4 successor was ultimately revealed sales dropped dramatically (despite 2019 and 2018 still being fairly decent years). It isn't the wrong metric to use, it's A metric to use. Everything is considered when predicting sales, including the length of the generation. With the PS1 and PS2 the length of the generation didn't really matter. With the PS3 and PS4 though it ultimately did. Therefore, it is accurate to say that the assumption of Playstation consoles should be changed to more accurately predict lifetime sales in the future. 



Machina said:
COKTOE said:

A friend of mine said the same thing via message in a group chat last night. I looked up availability of the Pro in my city last night ( because I do want another one ) and the stores with online listings were all sold out. Regular PS4 too. It is the holiday shopping season of course...But what I'm wondering is, are you both speculating, or has there been any evidence of this?

I got that info from @Marth

Thats speculation from my part but it surely feels this way.

PS4 would still sell if Sony actually bothered to supply it.



From what we've seen this year with incredibly low sales and stocks in Japan and some stock issues in the US as well, it's pretty obvious that Sony is not interested in keeping the PS4 alive much longer. They've put all their efforts in making the PS5 as attractive as possible and focused on making as many units as possible for a quick transition.



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TruckOSaurus said:

From what we've seen this year with incredibly low sales and stocks in Japan and some stock issues in the US as well, it's pretty obvious that Sony is not interested in keeping the PS4 alive much longer. They've put all their efforts in making the PS5 as attractive as possible and focused on making as many units as possible for a quick transition.

Though this is contradicted by them supporting the PS4 by releasing Horizon 2 on it next year possibly as late as Holiday 2021.

But the stock situation does indeed seem problematic. Amazon UK has no new PS4's available.