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Forums - Sales Discussion - Extra Easy Prediction: The PS4 won't be the eighth gen console with the best post-successor sales

I think this thread is missing some crucial data...

We need the data of how consoles sell from launch till their successor is released, and then how much it sells after that point till it's discontinued.

Not how much they sell for the first five years and then how much they sell after that.



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Machina said:

I agree it (probably - depends on Nintendo's strategy) won't. But the reasons why are interesting. It's primarily because Sony's strategy seems to be to cut the PS4's legs out from under it in order to increase PS5 take-up, creating shortages by moving production to PS5 (which won't be returned regardless of demand) and not reducing the price.

The PS4 could have had very strong post-predecessor sales, but I think Sony's calculated that a PS2 v PS3 scenario (where a budget-priced PS4 continues to be produced alongside the more expensive next-gen platform) isn't as profitable as trying to move most of those purchases straight on to the PS5.

A friend of mine said the same thing via message in a group chat last night. I looked up availability of the Pro in my city last night ( because I do want another one ) and the stores with online listings were all sold out. Regular PS4 too. It is the holiday shopping season of course...But what I'm wondering is, are you both speculating, or has there been any evidence of this?



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COKTOE said:
Machina said:

I agree it (probably - depends on Nintendo's strategy) won't. But the reasons why are interesting. It's primarily because Sony's strategy seems to be to cut the PS4's legs out from under it in order to increase PS5 take-up, creating shortages by moving production to PS5 (which won't be returned regardless of demand) and not reducing the price.

The PS4 could have had very strong post-predecessor sales, but I think Sony's calculated that a PS2 v PS3 scenario (where a budget-priced PS4 continues to be produced alongside the more expensive next-gen platform) isn't as profitable as trying to move most of those purchases straight on to the PS5.

A friend of mine said the same thing via message in a group chat last night. I looked up availability of the Pro in my city last night ( because I do want another one ) and the stores with online listings were all sold out. Regular PS4 too. It is the holiday shopping season of course...But what I'm wondering is, are you both speculating, or has there been any evidence of this?

I got that info from @Marth



Barkley said:

There's no reason to end that belief, data clearly shows Playstation consoles are long-lasting, it's an indisputable fact. Xbox 360 being the console with the best legs.

First 5 YearsLifetime% of sales after first 5 years
Xbox 36046.96m85.8m45.20%
PS287.47m157.68m44.50%
PS356.365m87.41m35.50%
PSP54.78m81.09m32.40%
PS172.97m (March 2000)102.54m28.80%
DS113.58m154.9m26.70%
3DS57.02m75.83m24.80%
PS486.465m113.9m24% (still increasing)
Xbox One39.39m48.55m18.8% (still increasing)
Wii90.21m101.64m11.20%
Vita14.94m16.21m7.80%
Wii U13.55m13.97m3.00%
Gamecube21.2m21.74m2.50%
N6432.71m32.92m0.70%
Xbox24.5m24.5m0.00%

As for the actual post-successor focus of your thread, this boils down to PS4 vs 3DS which you could have put the data for in your OP.

3DS post successor sales were 11.3m, meaning the ps4 needs to get to 125.1m lifetime sales to beat it's post successor sales. It certainly won't be that easy but with PS4 support going into 2021 (Horizon 2), it's certainly not impossible either.

PS3 managed 8.19m post successor, 11.3m for PS4 post successor is easily feasible.

60/40 in favour of 3DS.

This is all with regard to "post-successor" sales, so a lot of your data isn't relevant. The PS3 didn't receive a successor until 7 years into it's life, the PSP didn't receive a successor until 7 years into it's life, the PS4 didn't receive a successor until 7 years into its life. PS Vita never received a successor. Using five years as an indicator really isn't helpful. What I think would be better is a graph that shows the increase in sales the the following years after the successor launched. 



That's a very bold prediction when you consider the Switch is a 9th gen console.



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What? So the XB1 or the WiiU will take it?...lol



KLXVER said:

What? So the XB1 or the WiiU will take it?...lol

It's already clear that we talk about the 3DS.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Worth noting that the PS5 is, for the most part, backwards compatible with the PS4. This was not the case for the PS4 when launched, which was not compatible with PS3 games.

If you wanted to play PS3 games after the PS4 launched, you still needed to buy a proper PS3. Meanwhile, if you are the kind of person who might be interested on playing PS4 games, why would you buy a 300$ PS4, when you can instead buy a 500$ PS5 that will play most PS4 games and last the entire generation? (or 400$ for the digital edition).

Therefore I predict that the PS4 will have very small legs; not many people will buy a PS4; unless it gets a massive price drop (dropping to like 200$ or something dirt cheap like that)

Then again the PS2 did have some great legs while the PS3 was backwards compatible early on, but that is probably because the PS3 was outrageously expensive early on, so even if it was backwards compatible you were better off buying a super cheap PS2 slim and then later waiting for a PS3 price drop.



Mnementh said:
KLXVER said:

What? So the XB1 or the WiiU will take it?...lol

It's already clear that we talk about the 3DS.

I nominate the Iphone 7 then...



KLXVER said:
Mnementh said:

It's already clear that we talk about the 3DS.

I nominate the Iphone 7 then...

Oh, so 3DS is no gen 8 console. Doesn't count because *insert stupid reason here*.

Do you have something substantial to add to the thread or did you come here to be obnoxious?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]