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Forums - Sales Discussion - Extra Easy Prediction: The PS4 won't be the eighth gen console with the best post-successor sales

That's a very bold prediction when you consider the Switch is a 9th gen console.



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What? So the XB1 or the WiiU will take it?...lol



KLXVER said:

What? So the XB1 or the WiiU will take it?...lol

It's already clear that we talk about the 3DS.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Worth noting that the PS5 is, for the most part, backwards compatible with the PS4. This was not the case for the PS4 when launched, which was not compatible with PS3 games.

If you wanted to play PS3 games after the PS4 launched, you still needed to buy a proper PS3. Meanwhile, if you are the kind of person who might be interested on playing PS4 games, why would you buy a 300$ PS4, when you can instead buy a 500$ PS5 that will play most PS4 games and last the entire generation? (or 400$ for the digital edition).

Therefore I predict that the PS4 will have very small legs; not many people will buy a PS4; unless it gets a massive price drop (dropping to like 200$ or something dirt cheap like that)

Then again the PS2 did have some great legs while the PS3 was backwards compatible early on, but that is probably because the PS3 was outrageously expensive early on, so even if it was backwards compatible you were better off buying a super cheap PS2 slim and then later waiting for a PS3 price drop.



Mnementh said:
KLXVER said:

What? So the XB1 or the WiiU will take it?...lol

It's already clear that we talk about the 3DS.

I nominate the Iphone 7 then...



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KLXVER said:
Mnementh said:

It's already clear that we talk about the 3DS.

I nominate the Iphone 7 then...

Oh, so 3DS is no gen 8 console. Doesn't count because *insert stupid reason here*.

Do you have something substantial to add to the thread or did you come here to be obnoxious?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
KLXVER said:

I nominate the Iphone 7 then...

Oh, so 3DS is no gen 8 console. Doesn't count because *insert stupid reason here*.

Do you have something substantial to add to the thread or did you come here to be obnoxious?

Sure. The 3DS doesnt have a successor since the Switch is the successor to the WiiU. Unless you call it a successor to both which doesnt seem fair to the PS4 or XB1. Also the PS2 was like 100 bucks after the PS3 launced. No Sony console has been that cheap ever since. So this is a thread created to stir up shit with Sony fans and you need to not take it so seriously. 



Doctor_MG said:

This is all with regard to "post-successor" sales, so a lot of your data isn't relevant. The PS3 didn't receive a successor until 7 years into it's life, the PSP didn't receive a successor until 7 years into it's life, the PS4 didn't receive a successor until 7 years into its life. PS Vita never received a successor. Using five years as an indicator really isn't helpful. What I think would be better is a graph that shows the increase in sales the the following years after the successor launched. 

The 5 year sales data is specifically to counter the notion that this "PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting" is false, when it is not.

Yes the data isn't relevant to the "post-successor" sales in the prediction, that's why I addressed that below the table.

Here is post successor data:

Before Successor After Successor % After Successor
PS2 117.89m (March 2007) 39.79m 25.20%
PS1 72.97m 29.57m 28.83%
DS 142.89m 12m 7.74%
3DS 64.5m 11.3m 14.90%
PSP 72.305m 8.79m 10.83%
PS3 79.22m 8.19m 9.37%
Xbox 360 79.76m 6.04m 7.04%
Wii 96.85m 4.79m 4.70%
Gamecube 21.2m (Sept 2006) 0.54m 2.48%
Wii U 13.47m 0.5m 3.58%
Xbox 24m (December 2005) 0.5m 2.04%
N64 32.71m (Sept 2001) 0.21m 0.64%

PS4 would need 9.03% of it's total sales to come after the PS5 to match the 3DS. So it can still do it while still having the worst relative post-successor performance for any PlayStation console.

Though again I still give 3DS a slight edge, but it will be very close.

Last edited by Barkley - on 30 November 2020

Barkley said:

The 5 year sales data is specifically to counter the notion that this "PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting" is false, when it is not.

Yes the data isn't relevant to the "post-successor" sales in the prediction, that's why I addressed that below the table.

Here is post successor data:

Before Successor After Successor % After Successor
PS2 117.89m (March 2007) 39.79m 25.20%
PS1 72.97m 29.57m 28.83%
DS 142.89m 12m 7.74%
3DS 64.5m 11.3m 14.90%
PSP 72.305m 8.79m 10.83%
PS3 79.22m 8.19m 9.37%
Xbox 360 79.76m 6.04m 7.04%
Wii 96.85m 4.79m 4.70%
Gamecube 21.2m (Sept 2006) 0.54m 2.48%
Wii U 13.47m 0.5m 3.58%
Xbox 24m (December 2005) 0.5m 2.04%
N64 32.71m (Sept 2001) 0.21m 0.64%

Okay, but it seems like you didn't read the rest of the sentence. "Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, because the PS4 will already be the fourth PS console in a row (PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4) that didn't come anywhere close to the post-successor sales of the PS1 and PS2.".

It was with regard to post successor sales...that entire sentence was. Basically people have been stating that Sony consoles are incredibly long lasting in comparison to all other consoles because the PS1 and PS2 were incredibly long lasting after their successors launched. However, the graph you provided gives me a different picture. The DS and 3DS outperformed the PSP and PS3 after their successors launched. The 360 did almost as well as the PS3 with regard to post successor sales. This shows me that, by and large, OP is right. The first two Playstation consoles had incredible legs, but the consoles afterwards aren't significantly different from other successful consoles. 

There have been many individuals that I've argued with that suggested the PS4 would beat the PS2 sales because the PS2 sold almost 40M after the PS3 released, and the PS4 was, for a time, outpacing the PS2. Which, based on recent sales data, is just false. In fact, at this rate the PS4 may not reach 120M consoles sold. In other words, I agree that we need to step away from this worldview that Sony consoles are so incredibly long lasting they will sell for years and years after their successors come. It hasn't been the case for two generations and three (and a half?) consoles now. 

Edit: To add, based on Nintendo's financial data the GBA sold roughly 16M additional units after the DS arrived and the Gameboy sold an additional 4M units after the GBA arrived.

Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 30 November 2020

Doctor_MG said:

Okay, but it seems like you didn't read the rest of the sentence. "Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, because the PS4 will already be the fourth PS console in a row (PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4) that didn't come anywhere close to the post-successor sales of the PS1 and PS2."

Well then my problem is more that a console doesn't have to have good post-successor sales to be "long-lasting". A console that is still selling 7 years later is better lasting than a console that dies after 5. Regardless of when the successor came out.

PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, this is a fact, post-successor sales are irrelevant to this statement because it's the wrong metric to use.