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Forums - Sales Discussion - Extra Easy Prediction: The PS4 won't be the eighth gen console with the best post-successor sales

Train wreck on 01 December 2020

Rol with only half the story...seems about right. Sony's long legs are a combination of sales AND the support of their systems which on average is ~10+ years.

With the rise of PSN, the need for Sony to buffer losses from new console releases with late push of cheap consoles and software is over (seemed pretty evident with the PS3 to PS4 transition). Having long legs for consoles was out of necessity (cost buffer for the PS2 launch and preventing greater losses from the PS3 launch) and now that they have a corrective action for that, they can just focus on the transition. The PS4 will still be supported by Sony for the next 3+ years, with major software for this year and next, even if sales don't.  Contrast that to their competitors...yeah...longevity.



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Conina on 01 December 2020
Toxicspikes said:
Conina said:

Or the Switch lite is the 3DS successor. The normal Switch with included docking station was a bit out of the price range of "normal" handheld buyers.

Wasn't the PS Vita the same price at launch though?


No, it wasn't.



Wman1996 on 01 December 2020

If you count the Switch as eighth generation, you're probably right. Nintendo does cut their hardware off like crazy, even the mega hits. But even then, I see the appeal of the Switch as a budget platform once Switch 2 is out.
I don't count Switch as 8th gen, so I would say the PS4 will be the most successful. Xbox One will probably barely creep to 50 million units. There's only one SKU of it left at this point. I think the PS4 can hit 120 mil on the low end, and 130 mil if Sony is very assertive with it.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Tridrakious on 01 December 2020

I think the combination of Sony's lack of price drop for PS4, the 2020 pandemic wiping out stock and launching the PS5 will cause the PS4 to have a very abrupt retirement.

Sony wants people buying up the new games and accessories on their new hardware.



Ryng on 02 December 2020
KLXVER said:
Mnementh said:

Oh, so 3DS is no gen 8 console. Doesn't count because *insert stupid reason here*.

Do you have something substantial to add to the thread or did you come here to be obnoxious?

Sure. The 3DS doesnt have a successor since the Switch is the successor to the WiiU. Unless you call it a successor to both which doesnt seem fair to the PS4 or XB1.

what does this even mean lmao

It is the successor of both 3DS and Wii U that's a fact and i don't see what's "not fair"



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KLXVER on 02 December 2020
Ryng said:
KLXVER said:

Sure. The 3DS doesnt have a successor since the Switch is the successor to the WiiU. Unless you call it a successor to both which doesnt seem fair to the PS4 or XB1.

what does this even mean lmao

It is the successor of both 3DS and Wii U that's a fact and i don't see what's "not fair"

So the Switch is the successor to two systems? Well that doesnt seem fair to me. Why cant the PS3 be the successor to the PSP then. You could play the PSP on the TV after all.



Drakrami on 02 December 2020

First time I am hearing that PS's previous gen console will have great legs after a new gen release. Are you sure you are not making this social conventional wisdom up?

With backwards compatibility, all the more reason people won't fork out 200-400USD for last gen's consoles.

PS2 is a special console. It sold 155million units for a reason. It's got great legs for a few reasons. It had a huge library of games which was exclusive and many people still wanted to play those games, it can play conterfeit games. Basically it bought on a lot of value to the consumer, so I am not surprised if it had great legs.



Kakadu18 on 09 November 2021

Really interesting how even an obvious prediction like this can spark so much debate.



Jumpin on 12 November 2021
RolStoppable said:
RolStoppable said:

The PS3 sold ~500k units in Japan after the PS4 had launched. The PS4 has flatlined in the last several months, so it would already be an accomplishment if it managed another 200k until the end of its life.

The PS3 sold ~1.6m in the USA after the PS4 had launched. The PS4 hasn't been in any better shape lately, so that's another major market where it will fall short. October NPD painted a worse picture than it actually is, but it's easy to recognize in which direction the wind is blowing nonetheless.

Globally, the PS3 sold ~7.5m units after the PS4 had launched. The PS4 will have to rely on Europe (mostly the eastern half) and mainland Asia to match or exceed that figure.

However, the actual target is ~11.4m achieved by the 3DS, so for the PS4 Europe and mainland Asia will have to pull a lot of the weight. Which means that Sony's strategy for those regions will have to drastically differ from what they are doing in Japan and America.

...

Alternatively, we can calculate with shipments. The first thing to know is that the PS4 has sold through ~114.0m by the time the PS5 launched, so it needs to get above 125.0m in its lifetime. The decline in shipments has accelerated: In the fiscal year ending March 2018 the PS4 had shipped 19.0m, followed by 17.8m and 13.6m; the current fiscal year is projected to be 9.0m which would bring the PS4's LTD shipments to 119.4m. In other words, another ~6.0m will still be missing by March 2021 and that's a longshot when you consider that Sony wants a fast transition from the PS4 to the PS5.

For too long Sony has not made one last big push to increase PS4 sales (i.e. a price cut) and they aren't going to change their mind now when the PS5 is what they want to sell. The PS4 Pro's production has likely ended already, because its price point makes it pretty pointless in comparison to the PS5 SKUs. A standard PS4 for $/€300 doesn't look great when people can buy a backwards compatible $/€400-500 next generation console. Plus there's the used market which is going to have an increased influx of second hand PS4s due to not-so-well-off people trying to get the funds for a PS5 and a bunch of games.

Quoting myself here because it's the best summary of the numbers. Condensed version:

1. The 3DS sold ~11.4m after its successor Switch had launched, having established the highest value of eighth generation consoles.

2. The PS4 had sold through ~114.0m at the time of the PS5's launch, so in order to beat the 3DS, it needed to get above 125.0m. A year after the PS5's launch, the PS4's LTD sits at ~116.6m, so only ~2.6m units got added in the past twelve months. The most recent quarter saw PS4 shipments of 200k.

By all reasonable accounts, this race is over and the prediction has turned out to be correct. Not that this is something to brag about when it was a Captain Obvious prediction right from the outset.

Whoah, not even close (PS4 sales that is).

People are saying it was obvious, but it wasn’t to many who were invested on the PS4 selling in the range of PS2.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 12 November 2021

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