But the Switch is far more popular than almost all consoles(In japan), and especially compared to the PS4. Plus, by the time MH launches, the Switch will be at what, almost 20 million consoles sold there?

So I personally don't think 2 million first week is the absolute most optimistic sales the game can get. I personally think it's just pretty much what is expected the game to do.

MonHun is a game people buy a console for, at nleast in japan. Bigger hardware base is never bad, but I doubt it really limited previous entries. The changes  made to the formula look enticing though, that may draw in new customers. But MonHun is hit or miss. And I highly doubt that in Japan someone who might like the series was never exposed to it before. So I think MonHun already showed it's potential customer base before. The West is a different thing.

Sounds like a serious low ball if you ask me.

That didn't stop World of pulling bigger numbers and (supposedly) bring new fans in. So factoring in MH newfound popularity with World, coupled with Switch gigantic success and the fact that almost all new historical Nintendo realted game doing better on it( and I would include MH in that), you have 1 million feeling like a very low number.

I mean, anything could happen, but I very much doubt it, and Rise will be at least a great game.

We talk about Japan. MonHun World is my low end example from above. It was OK, but not great in Japan. In the west it was different, and that I said too, that it could look different in the west.

But didn't World do around 2 million with digital in Japan according to Famitsu(1.35 physical + digital = 2 million first week)?

I think you guys are underestimating Rise potential.

Oh yeah, including digital it might've been at 2 million, which is still in the same range, but at the upper end.

Yeah, maybe they mean that (and even then 1M would be low).

I get it companies sometimes low ball their forecasts to say later that they did better than they expected, but just 1 million LT would be some SERIOUS low balling.

1 million for the FY, so for it's first 6 days, should be achievable. Switch is king in Japan, and MH is practically a religion there. They just have to give it a strong marketing push and provide the necessary supply.

It looks really good I thought. The new monster Aknosom looks very fun to fight, and the series' signature combat style seems to be intact while also complemented by the new Wirebug abilities.

Around 2m on a ~6m PS4 install base. Switch will have triple that in HW.