If they mean 1m units from March 26-31 then I could believe that. If they mean lifetime sales...I'd expect it to sell at least 3m in Japan conservatively.
Yeah, maybe they mean that (and even then 1M would be low).
I get it companies sometimes low ball their forecasts to say later that they did better than they expected, but just 1 million LT would be some SERIOUS low balling.
Pretty much this, MHR is guaranteed to be the biggest launch on the Switch for a 3rd Party in Japan, the main question is will it become the biggest launch by surpassing New Horizon, honestly, I'd be surprised if it doesn't ship over 2 million in Japan during launch unless Capcom is trying to generate more digital sales by shipping a smaller amount for the launch. Even MHGU sold over 325K and this was a late port
- Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate - 225.204
- Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate [Best Price] (¥3.990) - 102.216
MHGU could have launched alongside the Switch might have done much better physically or if they actually put in some effort and made a Deluxe version and released it later. DQXI:S is over >500K physical and with a cheaper version releasing this holiday the game might end up >1M shipped + digital in Japan. I imagine an MHGU Deluxe could have sold >1M as well. I'm sure that the game has already surpassed any 3DS Monster Hunter in the West.
In terms of MHR I don't see a bigger game launching next year in Japan, this game alone has the potential to sell >4.5M next year. If Stories 2 is also well received, 2021 will be a record-breaking year for Capcom, but the same could be said for a number of Japanese game developers. We are definitely talking about a great result for the next year in the West and in Japan, it's basically the best time to be on the Switch with such efforts. Worldwide wide its tough to say if it can surpass MHW, but I think there is definitely potential there.
Capcom, Marvelous, Konami, Koei, Nippon, Atlus, Square, Bandai even Falcom due to licensing it's games for Asia and Western markets will be doing well. Fall 2020 and 2021 is lining up a like a very strong year for Japanese studios that have embraced a multiplat strategy or created exclusives games for the Switch. 90% of Japanese studios that have games in 2020/2021 for the Switch have them as a WW launch. Basically from this week with the SMT III launch, we are starting to see a very steady line-up of 3rd Party games.
Nintendo actually doesn't have much issues with Software sales because they know that from a 1st Party perspective they will achieve great sales with Ring Fit Adventure, New Horizon, Pokemon Sword and Shield DLC and a huge number of evergreens that sell about 50% of their annual totals during the holiday. I mean honestly, I expect Ring Fit and New Horizon to sell 2M more copies next year and MK8D to surpass 1M two years in a row.
A for this quarter over 15M hardware looks like a solid bet. Last year they shipped 10.8M so that's a 50% increase YoY, in Japan so far this year they've seen 54.7% according to Famitsu and they launched Ring Fit in China with local partners, we've seen increases in other markets like South Korean and Taiwan, European countries etc. Ring Fit and New Horizon will continue to be driving demand well into 2021 and the Monster Hunter launch. While 3rd Parties stand to benefit.
Momotaro, Age of Calamity, Taiko ports, Bravely 2, BOND, Rune Factory V, SMT V, Story of Seasons Olive Town will all perform very strongly WW and in Japan. It lines up with the financial results for example even before releasing Age of Calamity, Koei is reporting record quarters - Atelier surpassed >500K world wide, a new record for the franchise. They also have BOND which I'm not yet sure what to expect. The great position that Koei have found themselves in with Age of Calamity is the amount of priority Nintendo will give it this holiday, unprecedented for a 3rd Party to have the whole holiday to themselves, I think with Nintendo's push it will ship >5M this holiday WW.
Momotaro is a game that will become the first 1M Japanese 3rd Party seller, I think it will do it before MHR releases in March. I wonder if eventually, Konami will localize it for other markets.
Last edited by noshten - on 31 October 2020