The most likely scenario is that Switch will become the best selling console of all time. This year is going to be it's peak year, and it's going to peak higher than any home system ever has. The only system with a higher peak would be the DS, and it's sales fell extremely quickly after it's peak (basically it fell harder than any successful system ever has). All Switch needs is a somewhat gradual descent in sales after it's peak and it will coast right into the #1 position. Mathematically it's very feasible. It's peaking later and higher than the PS2, so it is set up very well to outsell the PS2. Or if you want to compare it to the DS, then it just needs a gradual descent, and it will ousell the DS.
People say "the stars need to align" in order for this to happen. Well, let's actually look at what would needs to happen for the "stars to align" on the most successful system ever and see if that is happening for the Switch. Since DS is the big selling Nintendo system, let's compare Switch and DS. Here is what would need to happen for a Nintendo system to surpass the DS.
1. Incredible First Party Software. Check. Switch easily has this category down. Compare the first party line-up of the Switch and DS. Both had evergreens, but Switch evergreens are actually core Nintendo titles. Zelda and Smash were never considered evergreens before. Now they are. Mario Kart 8 has already outsold Mario Kart DS and it's still going strong. Animal Crossing is heading like it's going to sell 3-4 times what the DS version sold, which is crazy. We can safely add in 2 more Pokemon games and another mainline Zelda before the Switch is done and several more years of other first party titles. DS had amazing first party sales, but Switch is totally blowing it away.
The Switch is set up to be the best selling system of all time. This is actually the likely scenario.
Yep! I guarantee Microsoft and Sony are sweating bullets right now between the smash success that the Switch is and the looming recession/global lockdowns. With the amazing lineup of games that the Switch has it is just a much more appealing option for the next couple years on that alone. I bet many households will be looking at this scenario come the holidays as well:
Scenario 1: Buy a Switch/Lite, maybe a Pro Controller, and MK8/Pokemon/Animal Crossing/etc for $300 to $400...
Scenario 2: Buy this $500 system and another $50+ for a single game... that's pushing $600...
I just foresee scenario 1 being much more appealing to many in the coming months/years.
Nintendo with the Switch: