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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is there a possibility that the Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console?

It certainly isn't impossible, but everything would need to line up just right.
I've considered before what kind of sales trajectory it would need to reach that and unless 2020-2022 become three miracle years like the DS did in 2007-2009, I think it can only happen if the next Ninty console doesn't come out til 2025, and even then it would require some damn good years until then.

My current prediction is the slightly-less-but-still-quite ambitious 140-150 mil.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

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GhaudePhaede010 said:
To think when I said Switch would sell Wii-like numbers, I was laughed at. My, how the tides have turned.

I would've laughed at you. I thought NES on the lower end to 3DS on the higher end. 

Now I don't laugh at people that would say it could sell PS4 numbers. Because even though I don't think that will happen, it's possible. I do laugh at those who say it can reach DS or PS2 levels because those platforms were truly lightning in a bottle. If I'm proven wrong, I'll be shocked.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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I don't think so. For this to happen there would need to be a major revision, and at that point, I don't think it would make sense to consider them the same system.



It all depends on Nintendo to be honest. If Nintendo really wants this system to have a longer console life than their previous consoles then yes. If Nintendo in 2-3 years launches a new system then no.

We need to remember
- There will still be at least another revision
- There will be price drops

Also, remember the switch has yet to hit the sweet spot which is $130 dollars.



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Of course not. Still remains to be seen if SW will even match the PS1, GB and PS4, let alone the PS2 and DS.



I certainly think it has the (realistic) potential to be the 3rd best selling - after the DS and PS2.

To be the first isn't impossible, but Nintendo would have to support it for at least 4-5 more years, release more quality exclusives, and probably crank out another new model or 2 + a few price drops. Basically, they'd have to do a LOT right to get the number one spot. 



 

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Kyuu said:
It's not impossible but right now the safest prediction is 120-130 million lifetime, which is PS4 territory.

More like 130-140 million. But yes i agree.



src said:
Of course not. Still remains to be seen if SW will even match the PS1, GB and PS4, let alone the PS2 and DS.

There is no way in hell it does not beat PS1 lol and even Gameboy is the absolutely worst scenario.



src said:
Of course not. Still remains to be seen if SW will even match the PS1, GB and PS4, let alone the PS2 and DS.

In what scenario does it not beat the PS1? Especially when it's pretty much neck and neck with the Wii.

PS1 - 102.50 million
Wii - 101.64 million 
NSW - 55.77 million (As of March 31st.)

And that's after Nintendo reported 21.03 million units shipped for the FY 2019. And so far FY 2020 is looking like it will pass that number without even trying.

Switch Yearly Sales:
Week 30 - 2019: 6,741,282 
Week 30 - 2020: 11,663,173

Right now, it's a whopping 5 MILLION UNITS ahead of last year's total at this point in time. IF Switch sales for the rest of the fiscal year are completely flat/dead even with last year, that would put Nintendo's shipments at 26.03 million units, which would surpass the Wii's peak year (25.94 million units in FY 2008). That would bring its total sales to 81.80 million units by March 31st, 2021 - the end of this fiscal year. From there, it would only need another 20.71 million units for the rest of its life span to pass the PS1.

So again I ask, in what scenario does it NOT even match the PS1? Its sales would have to crash, burn, and explode faster than a tank truck colliding with a gas station on the freeway for that to happen.