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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is there a possibility that the Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console?

Nah there's pretty much no way that is happening. Switch will probably end up around the PS4 at ~130 million give or take 5 million. It'll pass GB for sure, but very unlikely to get anywhere near DS and PS2. Only way that could possibly happen would be if Nintendo greatly increased their game output to pick up that Wii blue ocean crowd with Wii Sports like games and a series of Ring Fit fitness games that had huge word of mouth popularity, plus if Nintendo kept supporting Switch with software for a couple years after they replace it and treated it as a budget system for like $100-$150 alongside the next gen system.



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I mean, it could. But it needs a lot of things to go its way in order for that to happen. A lot more than just a pandemic boost and a big game release.

High volume sales (DS) and a longer, more extended life cycle (PS2) are what it needs for it to happen.

Let's look at the hardware data thus far:
FY 2016 - 2.74 million (2.74 million)
FY 2017 - 15.05 million (17.79 million)
FY 2018 - 16.95 million (34.74 million)
FY 2019 - 21.03 million (55.77 million)

It's a pretty safe bet that this fiscal year is going to be the strongest one to date for the system. Right now, it has ~5 million unit lead over last year. If it maintains its current lead over last year, it would end up shipping 26 million units.

FY 2020 (estimate) - 26.03 million (81.80 million).

Could be more, could be less. The next 7 weeks of data should go the same as it has been, 2020 weekly sales comfortably ahead of 2019, to the point where it could extend its lead to ~6 million. Then, Week 38 will mark the release of the Nintendo Switch Lite from last year, then from there, who knows how the rest of the year will shape out. Time will tell, but for now that's what I'm going with.

After March 31, 2021, it becomes a really big question mark. We have know idea what Nintendo's release schedule looks like beyond this year and what their plans are other than how they repeatedly insist on giving the Switch a long life cycle.

How they intend to support the Switch and for how long remains to be seen. But it's safe to assume the Switch is going to sticking around for a long while. The good thing is that Nintendo still has a number of cards they can play: 1-2 hardware revisions, (Switch Pro, Switch TV, etc.), 1-2 price cuts ($199/$249 when sales start to dip; Then $99/$199 when they're about to launch Switch 2 and they can use the current models as budget, low entry systems, a la 3DS 2017-2019), number of big A-S tier titles that can still move hardware (Breath of the Wild 2, the next 3D Mario game, Pokemon Gen 9, etc.). They're in a very fortunate and enviable position in the middle of the Switch's 4th year that not even Sony was in with the PS4, which already had a price cut and TWO hardware revisions (Slim and Pro) before it even finished its 3rd year. It's intriguing that with how extremely well the Switch has sold within the time frame it has, it may still have more gas left in the tank than most other systems at this point.  

But Nintendo will really need to step up their game on all fronts AND need some help from 3rd parties to make it happen. As incredibly well as Animal Crossing has sold at this point, in particular in Japan, have no doubt that a new Monster Hunter game on Switch would reach similar levels in that region, as well as worldwide (+/- than MH World) if Capcom got off their ass and stopped letting that money train pass them by. But that's for another time. 

I mentioned early how Nintendo still had plenty of A and S tier titles like Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon, at their disposal. But just those games alone are not going to be enough. They need a lot more than that. They need to continue to make new IPs like they have to appeal to different audiences with different tastes, maybe find a sleeper hit that can have killer app potential (Ring Fit, and what Labo was supposed to be.) I also think they need to dig deeper into their back catalogue of old games that haven't had a chance to really sell in this era. As great of a sales monster that Mario Kart has become, I'm very confident that if they really put the effort into making a great new F-Zero game with online, a story, and above all, customization to really appeal to that Gran Turismo/Forza crowd. There's a lot of untapped potential in many of their franchises that can be realized if they really make a serious effort to capitalize on it. Just look at Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, and Animal Crossing. Fire Emblem was on its deathbed before Awakening took off the way it did. Xenoblade (and Monolith Soft in general) wasn't gaining much traction before XC2 raised the bar, now Monolith has quickly become Nintendo's most reliable subsidiary and Xenoblade is well on its way to greater heights. And Animal Crossing just speaks for itself. If they want to pull it off, they need all hands on deck. And I do mean, ALL hands on deck.

Right now, I envision the Switch's sales trajectory from this point onwards going like this:

FY 2020 (estimate) - 26.03 million (81.80 million)
FY 2021 (estimate) - 22 million (103.80 million)
FY 2022 (estimate) - 17 million (120.80 million)
FY 2023 (estimate) - 12 million (132.80 million) - Switch 2 launch
FY 2024 (estimate) - 5 million (137.80 million) 
FY 2025 (estimate) - 2 million (139.80 million)
FY 2026 onwards (estimate) - 0.5 million (140.30 million)

Hypothetically, this would still leave it 15-18 million units short of the PS2 (Sony has it at more 155 million as of March 2012; VGChartz currently has it at 157.68 million. I have no idea what the actual number is.) 

So as I said in my original post - Highly unlikely.

It needs a lot of things to go its way just for it to have a chance.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 03 August 2020

As everyone has said, possible but highly unlikely. I do think it will come the closest though and end up higher than PS4. I think it has potential to be 140mil+ and if Ninty can produce as many switches, it can sell 27mil+ this year alone



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

No matter how good Switch will sell, people will say that it can't be compared to other systems since it's a hybrid. Even if it would sell more than PS2, people wouldn't count it as a success, because it's two systems in one or stuff like that.



DPsx7 said:
Anything is possible if they keep selling it long enough.

Not really, at some point the sales drop to very little numbers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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It's gonna end up third behind DS and PS2



There's a small chance to do so. I don't think it will, but I'm sure it will get at least pretty close.



I still wouldn't bet it will pass the Wii.
We don't know anything of the lineup of the upcoming months, Ps5 is about to release, plus don't underestimate Nintendo's talent to screw up.



Is it a possibility? Yes, just a very very small one.

Switch doesn't have another 100m sales left in it.



It'd need to continue selling 20 million units a year for another 5 years. In order for THAT to happen, the PS5 and XSX would have to have horrible early lives while the PS4 and X1 continue to decline, forcing more multiplatform games to be released on the Switch. And even then, you'd need enough Megahits to be released on the Switch at the same time as the competition from 2021 to 2025. I'm talking about all the annual and semi-annual series like FIFA, Call of Duty, Far Cry, etc, IN ADDITION TO once in a generation blockbusters like Grand Theft Auto VI, Monster Hunter World 2, Resident Evil 8, etc.

And of course, this is assuming that Nintendo does everything correctly, from new big games to new models and price drops to strong marketing.

So it's possible, but it's never going to happen.



Love and tolerate.