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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will PS5 repeat the success of the PS4, and achieve 50 % marketshare?

 

Will PS5 achieve 50% marketshare?

Yes 30 26.55%
 
No 64 56.64%
 
Maybe 14 12.39%
 
I'll have what you're smoking. 5 4.42%
 
Total:113
COKTOE said:
Leynos said:

No. Neither Nintendo nor MS have had a colossal fuck up to give Sony the chance to take an opportunity to do a "$299" moment like at E3 1995 or "Here is how you play used games on PS4" moment. PS5 no doubt well well but unless MS and Nintendo fuck up as badly as Wii U or TV TV TV TV SPORTS! level anytime soon. No. Sony sold best when others around them fucked up and Sony seized a grand opportunity.

Solid points, but you omitted the PS2, which was the most crushing victory in console history. I think, given the outcomes of all the console gens, you may be assigning too much importance to the mistakes of Sony's competition. Not that it's unworthy of consideration mind you. SegataSanshiro!

@OP. It won't.

Well actually.. PS2 also came out when their primary competitors Nintendo and Sega fell over and Xbox was really late to the party. Dream Cast (9m) and GameCube (24m) were even worse than the XB1 (48m) and WiiU (13m). PS2 had even less competition.

Last edited by Azzanation - on 31 July 2020

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COKTOE said:
Nautilus said:
I don't understand the mentality of excluding Nintendo here... they are all console manufacturers, they all are direct competitors, just with different products....

Some people do some crazy mental gymnastics here.

By my estimation the prevailing mentality on Vgchartz, historically and currently, is to not consider Nintendo a direct competitor to MS and Sony. Again and again. Through success and failure. I do not ascribed to this line of thinking, but feel it's quite pervasive.

Yeah, it's weird for sure. I know it comes from the Wii, when Nintendo won the 7th gen "playing dirty", in the sense that they took a different approach to reach it's success( The Blue Ocean Strategy).

Either way, Nintendo will always be there, and any sales analysis without them don't make sense. Which is why they are always included when there is serious discussion about console sales.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

No. I've said it before, I'll say it again. PS4 did so well because of the stupidity of Nintendo and Microsoft. Would the PS4 still have cracked around PS1 numbers if Nintendo and Microsoft were more competent? Yeah. But it would not reach 125-135 million like it's projected to right now.
If you include Switch with the PS4 market share, PS4 didn't hit 50%. But if you compare it against Xbox One, or Xbox One and Wii U then the PS4 did hit that. And if we compare the market share of Switch with the PS5 and Xbox Series X, that makes it near impossible for PS5 to hit 50% since Switch had over a 3.5 year headstart.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Well, Nintendo released the Switch years after the PS4 and will release the Switch 2 years after the PS5 so that you will always halve only like half a Switch gen against a full PS gen if you only count the Switch sales till Sony releases a new PS. MS releases everything on PC and soon even as game streaming so that they will never reach 360 sales again (as long as the whole market won't grow a lot) but they obviously know that and care more about their success on all systems combined.

So, yes, if you will count only Switch 2 sales until the PS6 will release, the PS5 will have reach 50% market share. If you will count all Switch 2 sales against the PS5 even some years after the PS6 released then the PS5 probably won't reach 50% market share.

And if you will combine Switch and Switch 2 sales together from the years the PS5 is on the market then the PS5 will probably also not reach 50% market share.

In the end it only reaches the 50% because Nintendo doesn't release their new console just because a new Xbox and PS release.



JRPGfan said:
Jranation said:

I thought market share is about what is on the market right now. PS5 will be compared to the Switch regardless what generation it is or not. 

Same holds true for Switch vs PS4/XB1, which its done for near 4years.
Also your useing the words "market share" now, when the discussion is generations.

And holy hell, do I feel baited..... I said earlier on in this thread, this discussion is stupid, and we've (vgchartz) has had it so many times already.
We've even had polls about this before too (I think?), which also had most seeing the Switch as 8th gen.

Even then, theres a very vocal minority here on VGCz that are adament about the Switch being a 9th gen system.
Even though it probably wont be able to play multiplat 3rd party AAA games (next gen), and spent most of its life cycle against the PS4/Xb1.

Wiki also has Switch listed as 8th gen.
The majority view it as 8th gen, vocal nintendo fans refuse to accept it.

The funny thing was during those times another hot topic was whether Switch was a home console or a handheld. They bring in market share in the topic because if Switch was a handheld it has 100% market share. If Switch is a homeconsole it will be included with PS4 and XB1. Then there was also the question of where does the Wii U belong to. 

Market share have become a stupid measurement because of the Switch timing. Like we have to wait until how much LT sales the Switch has for the complete gen 8 market share. Same in PS5 case when Switch 2 comes out. 

Launch aligned comparisons are so much better for discussions. Comparing major events like the pandemic which can postively or negatively impact the time the console was out. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Not counting NS, yes, counting it, absolutely not.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Interesting, if not imo pointless, arguments about which console is which gen. Honestly, I think gens are kinda pointless at this point, but that seems to be a minority opinion. My only thoughts are, if we are using gens to compare consoles, how do people think it makes sense when the majority of a consoles life in that gen do not align with the majority of another consoles lifespan.

I wouldn't say that we shouldn't compare the Switch/PS4/XBONE together. Nor would I say we shouldn't compare Switch/PS5/XBX together. In fact when the Switch2, or whatever it comes to be called happens, it should be compared to the PS5/XBX as well. Weekly, monthly, launch aligned, etc. Especially while they exist as flashships, compare them.

But still context matters. PS4 and XBONE are right now reaching their End as flagship consoles for SONY and MS respectively. The Switch is mid life. Unless Switch were a failure it makes absolute sense that it sells more than two about to be replaced consoles. Of course the fact that the Switch is very popular and accessible makes that sells gap much larger.

People seem not to like to think about the nuance. Fanbois and haters alike. They just wanna spout PS4 wins, Switch is no competition! or Nintendomination! Switch is outselling PS5/XBX! It's a bit more complicated than that.



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.



It's actually more likely that Switch will have 50%+ market share for Generation 9.



Leynos said:

No. Neither Nintendo nor MS have had a colossal fuck up to give Sony the chance to take an opportunity to do a "$299" moment like at E3 1995 or "Here is how you play used games on PS4" moment. PS5 no doubt well well but unless MS and Nintendo fuck up as badly as Wii U or TV TV TV TV SPORTS! level anytime soon. No. Sony sold best when others around them fucked up and Sony seized a grand opportunity.

MS already did that with the Halo reveal.



If not having 2013 mistakes is enough to convince people...

Lockhart existing officially will play a big role. Will help in lesser developed countries and sell for casuals buying on price alone

Game Pass can potentially be lucrative in a post COVID economy recession.

Studio acquiring spree means more games, more variety, more AAA, and best part: no more game droughts Xbox typically has every gen. 

Seeing the top selling Steam games (Grounded, Sea of Thieves, Halo MCC, Flight Sim should tell us that MS is finally getting their footing with gamers. Their games are resonating with people.

One edge they really have over a PS: their games actually have multiplayer. There is exceptions but for the most part this is true. Games that involve friends playing together can appeal and outlast “one and done” games the competition is now known for.

Last edited by sales2099 - on 31 July 2020

Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles.