Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will PS5 repeat the success of the PS4, and achieve 50 % marketshare?

Will PS5 achieve 50% marketshare?

Yes 30 26.55%
 
No 64 56.64%
 
Maybe 14 12.39%
 
I'll have what you're smoking. 5 4.42%
 
Total:113
Jranation said:
JRPGfan said:

I view it as last gen.
Last gen Nintendo released 2 consoles, the Wii U, and then afterwards the Switch.
Part of the issue is sony & xbox gens are so long, and nintendo ended the wii u early to launch a new one.
Switch is a in between sort of thingy.

I thought market share is about what is on the market right now. PS5 will be compared to the Switch regardless what generation it is or not. 

Same holds true for Switch vs PS4/XB1, which its done for near 4years.
Also your useing the words "market share" now, when the discussion is generations.

And holy hell, do I feel baited..... I said earlier on in this thread, this discussion is stupid, and we've (vgchartz) has had it so many times already.
We've even had polls about this before too (I think?), which also had most seeing the Switch as 8th gen.

Even then, theres a very vocal minority here on VGCz that are adament about the Switch being a 9th gen system.
Even though it probably wont be able to play multiplat 3rd party AAA games (next gen), and spent most of its life cycle against the PS4/Xb1.

Wiki also has Switch listed as 8th gen.
The majority view it as 8th gen, vocal nintendo fans refuse to accept it.



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COKTOE said:
Nautilus said:
I don't understand the mentality of excluding Nintendo here... they are all console manufacturers, they all are direct competitors, just with different products....

Some people do some crazy mental gymnastics here.

By my estimation the prevailing mentality on Vgchartz, historically and currently, is to not consider Nintendo a direct competitor to MS and Sony. Again and again. Through success and failure. I do not ascribed to this line of thinking, but feel it's quite pervasive.

The prevailing mentality is to disregard Nintendo when they are winning. When the Wii comfortably beat both the PS3 and 360 in weekly sales and yearly sales, the Wii was in a different market and as such comparisons were a no-go. Once the situation changed and the Wii fell behind in weekly and yearly sales, it was perfectly fair to do comparisons with Nintendo.

The Wii U was a failure from the get-go and I've never seen anyone claiming that its sales should not be compared to PS and Xbox consoles. All sales comparisons could be done without objections along the lines of "different markets should not be compared."

With the rise of Switch, the mentality to put Nintendo into a different category altogether returned and it will stay that way. If Sony can't beat the competition, then the competition has to be disqualified. If you wonder why I am not targeting Xbox fans here, it's because they don't believe that Microsoft has a chance at winning to begin with.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Impossible to answer due to some factors:
- is the switch a system of choice for most people or just a "second console" for most players? I dont uave the answer but if you think switch is a contender then we need to wait for switch sales in around 2 years to add it to the math which will make ps4 probably around 35-40% of 8th gen marketshare
- will we add switch to 9th gen calculation? Probably not I suppose so we would have to wait for switch 2.
- will there be a significant difference in 3rd party games on ps5 and xbox? XSX is more powerfull so it may drive more more people to xbox platform if there is a significant difference.

My take:
Ps5 40%
XSX 20%
Switch 2: 40% (if we wait till switch 2 lifetime sales)

PS5 will need to rely on a big fuck up from nintendo to get to 50%



Depends the spinning and mental gimnastics people does to fit their narrativa.



 

Well tricky question. Because rather than timly alignment,
I believe that the hardware, software and feature set of a system defines with whom it would have to be grouped together.

Some people say nintendo started 9th gen early with the switch. However, that means that if the same people consider PS5/XSX 9th gen aswell, you can have a set of systems launch early, and another set of systems launch (way) later, and still consider them the same gen.

Using that argument + what I said first means that the WiiU is technically the same gen as PS360, which would make its successor the same as Ps4/Xb1 (8th)
However that would raise the question, where the Wii belongs to.

Assuming the Switch even belongs into the HC generations, it would have to be a late inclusion in the 8th generation, therefore PS5/XSX being the only 9th gen systems and the answer to the topics question being: no, PS4 didnt manage 50% market share, and so wont PS5 once Nintendos "9th gen" system is out.



Current Gaming Systems

    Handheld   Home Console
Nintendo   Switch   Discontinued
Sony   Discontinued   PlayStation 4
Microsoft   None   XBox One
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Already been pointed out multiple time but Switch sales alone makes this feat impossible.



COKTOE said:
Leynos said:

No. Neither Nintendo nor MS have had a colossal fuck up to give Sony the chance to take an opportunity to do a "$299" moment like at E3 1995 or "Here is how you play used games on PS4" moment. PS5 no doubt well well but unless MS and Nintendo fuck up as badly as Wii U or TV TV TV TV SPORTS! level anytime soon. No. Sony sold best when others around them fucked up and Sony seized a grand opportunity.

Solid points, but you omitted the PS2, which was the most crushing victory in console history. I think, given the outcomes of all the console gens, you may be assigning too much importance to the mistakes of Sony's competition. Not that it's unworthy of consideration mind you. SegataSanshiro!

@OP. It won't.

Well actually.. PS2 also came out when their primary competitors Nintendo and Sega fell over and Xbox was really late to the party. Dream Cast (9m) and GameCube (24m) were even worse than the XB1 (48m) and WiiU (13m). PS2 had even less competition.

Last edited by Azzanation - on 31 July 2020

COKTOE said:
Nautilus said:
I don't understand the mentality of excluding Nintendo here... they are all console manufacturers, they all are direct competitors, just with different products....

Some people do some crazy mental gymnastics here.

By my estimation the prevailing mentality on Vgchartz, historically and currently, is to not consider Nintendo a direct competitor to MS and Sony. Again and again. Through success and failure. I do not ascribed to this line of thinking, but feel it's quite pervasive.

Yeah, it's weird for sure. I know it comes from the Wii, when Nintendo won the 7th gen "playing dirty", in the sense that they took a different approach to reach it's success( The Blue Ocean Strategy).

Either way, Nintendo will always be there, and any sales analysis without them don't make sense. Which is why they are always included when there is serious discussion about console sales.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

No. I've said it before, I'll say it again. PS4 did so well because of the stupidity of Nintendo and Microsoft. Would the PS4 still have cracked around PS1 numbers if Nintendo and Microsoft were more competent? Yeah. But it would not reach 125-135 million like it's projected to right now.
If you include Switch with the PS4 market share, PS4 didn't hit 50%. But if you compare it against Xbox One, or Xbox One and Wii U then the PS4 did hit that. And if we compare the market share of Switch with the PS5 and Xbox Series X, that makes it near impossible for PS5 to hit 50% since Switch had over a 3.5 year headstart.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Well, Nintendo released the Switch years after the PS4 and will release the Switch 2 years after the PS5 so that you will always halve only like half a Switch gen against a full PS gen if you only count the Switch sales till Sony releases a new PS. MS releases everything on PC and soon even as game streaming so that they will never reach 360 sales again (as long as the whole market won't grow a lot) but they obviously know that and care more about their success on all systems combined.

So, yes, if you will count only Switch 2 sales until the PS6 will release, the PS5 will have reach 50% market share. If you will count all Switch 2 sales against the PS5 even some years after the PS6 released then the PS5 probably won't reach 50% market share.

And if you will combine Switch and Switch 2 sales together from the years the PS5 is on the market then the PS5 will probably also not reach 50% market share.

In the end it only reaches the 50% because Nintendo doesn't release their new console just because a new Xbox and PS release.