With the next-gen console launches just around the corner, and the Switch establishing itself as a successful product on its' own timeline, there are many factors at play that complicates the sales discussion compared to the 8th generation. 

What is the general consensus on this forum? I'm curious to know if people feel that Sony will be able to reproduce the success of the current gen, and carry that throughout next-gen. 

Understandably there are some unknowns at this point, like the PS5 launch price and how successful the digital edition is, as well as Microsofts approach to the Xbox Series X/S and its' price. A Switch pro or succesor is also another variable in the eqaution. Nintendo is a much stronger contender going into the new gen and could have more aces up their sleeves.

I know it might be a little premature to have this discussion, but that's part of the reason I wanted to get the conversation started. Please try to keep things civil as I wanted to have a healthy discussion about the topic. 

What console do you plan on purchasing? 

Throwback to 2014 and gen 8's discussion : https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/179045/ps4-achieved-what-wii-couldnt-50-marketshare-may-2015/1/

Poll added.

No, because there is no way in hell it can achieve that with current Switch sales figures. That ship had sunk before it left the harbor.

And if you want to say Switch is gen 8, then PS4 did not really have 50% of the market share, so that correction would need to be made.

If you are speaking soley against XBox (which is not the entire console market), then yeah sure. I think it very well may. MS has much more going for them this time around however, so I doubt it will achieve a full 50% sweep over MS as easily as they did with the PS4.

https://youtu.be/0XWOlmPFg2k

that depends on who tells the story

No. Neither Nintendo nor MS have had a colossal fuck up to give Sony the chance to take an opportunity to do a "$299" moment like at E3 1995 or "Here is how you play used games on PS4" moment. PS5 no doubt well well but unless MS and Nintendo fuck up as badly as Wii U or TV TV TV TV SPORTS! level anytime soon. No. Sony sold best when others around them fucked up and Sony seized a grand opportunity.

Solid points, but you omitted the PS2, which was the most crushing victory in console history. I think, given the outcomes of all the console gens, you may be assigning too much importance to the mistakes of Sony's competition. Not that it's unworthy of consideration mind you. SegataSanshiro!

@OP. It won't.

The NS would go onto sell nothing less of 100M. Even if the XB does poorly, it should still push at least 50M.

PS5 would need to sell 150M consoles to have a 50% market share. And if NS or XB decides to beat these "reserved" estimates, then it would have to sell even more than that.

Does that even sound remotely possible?

I really hate how the fortunes of a platform along all of its generation is associated with or tied to one silly thing or the other.

There are a lot more reasons as to why things went south than the "first reason". Xbox lost this gen not because of TV TV TV and always online. All that shit could have been put to bed before the console even launched. They lost because they simply didn't have the games to drive the sale of the hardware. And secondly, because MS is and was never as big a brand in gaming as the 360 would have led people to believe.

Sony and Nintendo don't need someone to fuck up for them to be successful. MS, however, does. Sony's version of a bad gen is selling only like 80M+ consoles. The XB1selling around 50M consoles isn't even them having bad gen, its what I would expect them to have. The 360 just made people think they had become bigger than they actually were. Its like people forgot that the OG XB sold only like 25M consoles.

Between the XSX & PS5?... yes.

I don't consider Nintendo direct competition and Nintendo doesn't as well. And I expect PS5 to sell between 6-4 and 66/33 against Xbox Series Family (so PS5 basically keeping similar total 120-130, and Xbox improving sales). And if one wants to consider Nintendo on the battle then there is no way PS5 will outsell Xbox and Switch (even if 2) combined.