Yep, Lite model increasing the baseline, Pokemon reversing its decline & Ring Fit still being severely stock limited should keep sales high until Animal Crossing (and likely a special edition Switch Lite) comes and sees sales skyrocket and keeps sales high through the Spring.
1st half of the year should be notably up YoY, 2nd half is more questionable as last year was absolutely stacked with Mario Maker (last week of June so most of its sales in H2), Fire Emblem in July, improved model in Aug, Link's Awakening+Lite model+DQ XI in Sept, Luigi's Mansion+Ring Fit in Oct & Pokemon+Mario & Sonic in Nov.
That will be a hard lineup to beat so it will be interesting to see what Nintendo has in store this year.
They don't really need to beat 2nd half line up to do better
They only need a price drop and a Animal Crossing themed Switch/Switch Lite.
Animal Crossing demand will be constant hardware driver for a while after it releases.
New Horizon is unprecedented and it will probably be supported for years by Nintendo.
It will be driving sales World Wide during the holidays without the need for any other games. Ring Fit will help and so would any other big game Nintendo has planned for the holiday but at the end of the day we are seeing Animal Crossing mania dominate 2020 and in Japan, you can multiply this by ten. It's the perfect storm of Switch being super popular, Big Breakout for a Big IP(going from 10-15M WW to easily over >35M WW), COVID, a potential financial crisis which usually leads to even more escapism.... and most importantly ZERO competition geared towards the new demographics buying a Switch for New Horizon(young girls and women are hardly interested at buying PS5 or a new Xbox at launch)
It would be amazing when it outsells everything in the final quarter this year. Gotta remember this is the game's first December. I'm thinking it will easily eclipse New Leaf which had it's first holiday shortly after it's launch. The difference is that next year DLC might maintain strong sales for New Horizon which is one of the reason I think this game will do the unthinkable a few months ago... outselling Red/Blue/Yellow/Green by 2022.
New Leaf 2012 Holidays(Dec 3, 2012 - Jan 6, 2013)
- Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 115.556(-3%)
- Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 213.329(+85%)
- Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 400.320(+88%)
- Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 163.948(-59%)
- Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 135.971(-17%)
Also, I think Pokemon Snap will be huge this holiday.