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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 28, 2020 (Jul 06 - Jul 12)

The_Liquid_Laser on 21 July 2020
noshten said:

No one is even saying for Japanese 3rd Parties need to make exclusive games for the Switch, multiplat strategy is working and brings in the most money.

Why limit yourself unless Nintendo or Sony is footing the bill.

Actually I do think Japanese 3rd parties are going to make a fair amount of Switch exclusives, but also a good amount will be multiplat too. 

Anything that was a 3DS or Vita exclusive last gen I expect to be a Switch exclusive this gen.  (Examples: Rune Factory, Bravely Default, etc...).  There were also plenty of games that got both a Vita and PS4 release (Example: Hatsune Miku, Trails of Cold Steel series, etc...).  These are good candidates for Switch/PS5 multiplat, but some may decide to be Switch exclusives since it has a much higher install base than the Vita did, and it's also a home console.  Then there are games that were PS4 exclusives, but didn't push hardware limits (example: Persona).  These are really good candidates for Switch/PS5 multiplat.  And then there are the PS4 games that did push hardware limits (Examples: Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...).  These will probably stay Playstation exclusive.

Overall Switch is in a very good position to get Japanese third party games.  It should have at least as many third party exclusives as the 3DS/Vita did combined (maybe more), and it will also get plenty of Japanese multiplat games too.



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curl-6 on 21 July 2020
PortisheadBiscuit said:

So we just gon' act like src isn't an alt?? Lol

It's been pointed out so many times and is so obvious by now that its just kinda generally accepted and goes without saying.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 July 2020

src on 22 July 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I really think 8m in Japan for PS5 is too optimistic.  Japanese people do not want first Sony first party games like Uncharted or God of War.  Spider-Man is probably the most popular first party game that they have for Japan.  

That just leaves third party games, and PS5 is going to get very few third party exclusives.  Only games which are bigger in the west like Final Fantasy will end up as third party exclusives, and even then Japanese studios have to seriously evaluate if they want to alienate their own country's fan base.  A third party game on the Switch can sell well both in Japan and overseas.  A third party game on the PS5 will only sell well overseas.  Very few Japanese people are going to want an expensive home console that sits there and collects dust, because they mostly only have time to play a portable system.

Total sales for PS5 is going to largely depend on how much money Sony and/or Nintendo throw at Capcom.  If Nintendo makes Monster Hunter a Switch exclusive (unlikely), then I can see PS5 selling as low as 4m, which is a little above Wii U levels.  If Sony makes MH a PS5 exclusive (slightly more likely), then PS5 might go as high as 7m.  If MH is multiplat (most likely), then PS5 will probably end up in the 5m-6m range.  MH was really the game that helped the PSP and killed the Vita, and Sony and Nintendo might continue to make offers to Capcom to decide the fate of the home market in Japan as well.  On the other hand Sony seems to be giving up on Japan and Nintendo is already winning there without MH.  If Capcom doesn't get money thrown at them, then going multiplat with MH would be the best move.

PS5 sells somewhere in the 4m-7m range depending on MH.

PS5 will get more meaningful third party exclusives than the SW in Japan. Not only that but JP third party games do incredibly well on PS4 so third parties will be more than happy to continue with the PS5.

MHW became Capcoms best selling game of all time, outselling every single nintendo entry combined, all with one game and expansion. MHW2 will be on PS5 and unlikely on SW due to how weak it is.

Shaunodon said:

The only delusional one in this thread is the person blindly believing PS5 will magically inherit PS3/PS4's market share, as if the declining interest for traditional home consoles in Japan isn't already obvious.

SMTIII selling 300k isn't that hard to see however, considering SMTIV alone wasn't that far off on 3DS. SMTIII has never been on a Nintendo system, never been portable, is generally more well regarded/remembered than SMTIV, and is releasing on a system with more interest/momentum behind it than the 3DS, even if sales looks to be comparable in the region with 3DS more frontloaded.

Oh look another delusional poster thinking a PS2 port will sell 300k on SW lmao

Not sure why you are comparing a new mainline game to a PS2 port but I guess you need some mental gymnastics to justify the delusions.

MasonADC said:
PS4 broke a lot of records regarding software, but anyone can see that those same games next iterations will probably have a decline, in japan and worldwide. It wouldn’t make sense for any game that isn’t top tier in graphics to not be on the market leader

Yeah sure, just like how those PS4 entries were probably going to decline and yet PS4 software sales resulted in them breaking records.



src on 22 July 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
src said:

There's so much wrong with this post that its hard to know where to even start.

PS5 will likely do as well as PS3/4 (9-10 million) which is still good. The national sensation that was the Wii only did 12.75 million. Software sales for PS4 are still strong, and even with low digital percentages have surpassed the PS3.

PS4 continues to get better Japanese support that the SW/3DS, and the same will be true for PS5. Playstation always get the best Japanese support simply due to their global software and hardware sales. Domestic sales are not as relevant and even if they were PS4/5 would still get said support.

You mention historical trends yet completely lie about said trends. I'll be showing both WW and JP:

Persona 5, Nier, Nioh, DQH/B, MHW, RE7, RE2R, DMCV, FFXV, FF7R, KH3, DBZ, Naruto, AC7, EDF, Power Pro Baseball, all showed record breaking growth largely if not entirely due to Playstation.

Atlus best selling game of all time is Persona 5 (PS4/3)

Tecmo best selling game of all time is Nioh (sales mostly on PS4)

Capcoms best selling game of all time MHW (sales mostly on PS4)

RE2R and RE7 outpacing RE5/6 (sales mostly on PS4)

DMCV best selling game in the franchise (sales mostly on PS4)

FFXV on track to match FF7/10 (sales mostly on PS4)

FF7R fastest selling FF of all time (exclusive on PS4)

KH3 fastest selling KH of all time (sales mostly on PS4)

DBZ,Naruto best selling anime games of all time (sales mostly on PS4)

AC7 broke franchise records overseas (sales mostly on PS4)

EDF5 best selling EDF of all time (exclusively on PS4)

Power Pro best selling since PS2 entries (PS4/V)

As you can see, in reality JP third parties have had record breaking success on PS4 and hence its no surprise that PS5 support will be stronger than SW.

Despite all that:

PS4: lowest-selling Playstation console in Japan of all times.

You're conflating worldwide sales with Japan sales. We're talking strictly about sales in Japan here, but you talk about worldwide sales. Most of those games did pretty poorly in their home market.

Wrong.

The conversation was about JP third party software, which is determined by global sales, not just domestic sales, hence why PS4 gets better support than SW and Ps5 will continue that.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
src said:

PS5 is a considerably easier market. You guys continue to miss the driving factor for software development: software/ecosystem sales.

3DS/PSV was stronger competition to PS3/4 than SW will ever be, simply because they allowed devs to go exclusive to those platforms. SW can't do that because PS4 makes too much money for JP third party devs.

case in point, CAPCOM. PS4 has almost 8 times the sales of SW.

That's FY 2018, which ended March 2018. It would have been shocking if PS4 wouldn't have beaten the Switch by a large margin at the time, especially with the MHW launch in January. Also, again, that's worldwide sales, not just Japan, which is what this thread is all about.

Try a newer one for size. The one for FY 2020 doesn't seem ready yet (last update October 15), but the one for FY 2019 is. PS4 still leading, but sales dropped quite a bit while Switch sales almost doubled over the previous year:

Also, keep in mind those are just the physical sales, as digital sales are being counted separately and without distinction to which platform sold how much.

This just further proves why JP third parties place PS4 as number 1: 65% of Capcoms packaged sales came from PS4. SW accounted for 19.5%.



Kai_Mao on 22 July 2020
src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Despite all that:

PS4: lowest-selling Playstation console in Japan of all times.

You're conflating worldwide sales with Japan sales. We're talking strictly about sales in Japan here, but you talk about worldwide sales. Most of those games did pretty poorly in their home market.

Wrong.

The conversation was about JP third party software, which is determined by global sales, not just domestic sales, hence why PS4 gets better support than SW and Ps5 will continue that.

Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's FY 2018, which ended March 2018. It would have been shocking if PS4 wouldn't have beaten the Switch by a large margin at the time, especially with the MHW launch in January. Also, again, that's worldwide sales, not just Japan, which is what this thread is all about.

Try a newer one for size. The one for FY 2020 doesn't seem ready yet (last update October 15), but the one for FY 2019 is. PS4 still leading, but sales dropped quite a bit while Switch sales almost doubled over the previous year:

Also, keep in mind those are just the physical sales, as digital sales are being counted separately and without distinction to which platform sold how much.

This just further proves why JP third parties place PS4 as number 1: 65% of Capcoms packaged sales came from PS4. SW accounted for 19.5%.

Doesn't hurt that the PS4 has more Capcom games than Switch does by a mile..Not to mention that most of Switch's Capcom support are mostly late ports. Maybe if there were a few original (non-port) titles on Switch, that percentage might be higher for Switch. Octopath Traveler, Astral Chain, Daemon x Machina, and others have proven that original third party titles can be successful on Switch. Outside of Mega Man 11, has Capcom developed any other original AA-AAA title for Switch?



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HoangNhatAnh on 22 July 2020
src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Despite all that:

PS4: lowest-selling Playstation console in Japan of all times.

You're conflating worldwide sales with Japan sales. We're talking strictly about sales in Japan here, but you talk about worldwide sales. Most of those games did pretty poorly in their home market.

Wrong.

The conversation was about JP third party software, which is determined by global sales, not just domestic sales, hence why PS4 gets better support than SW and Ps5 will continue that.

This just further proves why JP third parties place PS4 as number 1: 65% of Capcoms packaged sales came from PS4. SW accounted for 19.5%.

We are talking about JP third party software in JP only, this article is about JP only, stop bringing the ww sales here.



Bofferbrauer2 on 22 July 2020
src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Despite all that:

PS4: lowest-selling Playstation console in Japan of all times.

You're conflating worldwide sales with Japan sales. We're talking strictly about sales in Japan here, but you talk about worldwide sales. Most of those games did pretty poorly in their home market.

Wrong.

The conversation was about JP third party software, which is determined by global sales, not just domestic sales, hence why PS4 gets better support than SW and Ps5 will continue that.

This just further proves why JP third parties place PS4 as number 1: 65% of Capcoms packaged sales came from PS4. SW accounted for 19.5%

Wrong.

The conversation was about how Japanese third party developers were doing in Japan, not Worldwide. You just hijacked it and tried to push global sales to give a point that nobody asked for.



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Shaunodon on 22 July 2020
Kai_Mao said:
src said:

Not sure why you wasted 10 lines saying "not for Japan" when I already mentioned it included global. I'm evidently more informed about the Japanese market since you can't even get general trends correct.

Nintendo having 80% hardware market share isn't go to stop Playstation continuing to get better third party support, because as I have said, and as history has shown for several generations, Japanese third party support is also dependent on overseas sales. If you want to talk about JP third party support then you need to talk about overseas sales as well. You should know this, since you call yourself informed.

Playstation hence continues to have the best JP third party support, in terms of sales share and number of titles. This is supported by data.

Its cute that you put Taiko as some bar, bu we look at third party sales as a whole (cumulative) and Playstation continues to dominate Nintendo in that regard.

Coming from the guy who thinks a SMT Remaster is going to do 300k on one platform, and justifies it by wrongly comparing it to a newline entry and its later released SKU, your projections are laughable.

All I can say is..at this point, any Japanese developer that ignores Switch, which is selling well in Japan and the rest of the world, are going to be criticized for having bad business decisions. Example would be games like the new SAO game.

Sure, there will be games that sell better on PS, but Switch sales would be an added bonus at worst.

The Switch is selling incredibly well and destroying the top 20 on the weekly charts in Japan. Why ignore an established user base that is still growing?

Out of personal interest, I'm rather baffled something like Granblue Fantasy: Versus released only on PS4 and Steam this year. Seems like a great fit for Switch, with a charming art style and more user friendly gameplay than most ArcSys fighting games. And ArcSys have already ported BlazBlue, Dragon Ball FighterZ, Under Night and a couple Guilty Gear games (not the newest ones yet).

Seems like Cy Games must have some deal with Sony, because they've also had that Granblue Fantasy action-RPG long in development only for PS4. But that's even more ridiculous, as it's a Japanese-centric game that seems likely to be pushed to 2021 now, releasing only for a system that'll be fizzling out by then.

The action-RPG would be harder to run, but if Cy Games had any sense they'd be finding a way to get both of them on Switch asap. Whatever deal Sony may've made, I doubt they care too much now as they're basically ceding the region. It'll just be lost sales, also stinting the potential growth of this franchise by not getting it to more homes in Japan.

These types of games that rely on the Japanese market, won't have much of a future if they stubbornly stick to PS with it's declining market share.



AJNShelton on 22 July 2020
noshten said:

FAMITSU TOP SELLING GAMES JAPAN ALL TIME(physical):

8. Animal Crossing: Wild World (NDS) - 5.241.655

9. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Switch) - 5.114.386

10. Brain Age 2 (NDS) - 5.082.322


New Horizon moves into 9th place, I think it should be very close or in the Top 5 by the end of the Quarter, which would require >5.82M

Do you have to full list ?



Otter on 22 July 2020
src said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I really think 8m in Japan for PS5 is too optimistic.  Japanese people do not want first Sony first party games like Uncharted or God of War.  Spider-Man is probably the most popular first party game that they have for Japan.  

That just leaves third party games, and PS5 is going to get very few third party exclusives.  Only games which are bigger in the west like Final Fantasy will end up as third party exclusives, and even then Japanese studios have to seriously evaluate if they want to alienate their own country's fan base.  A third party game on the Switch can sell well both in Japan and overseas.  A third party game on the PS5 will only sell well overseas.  Very few Japanese people are going to want an expensive home console that sits there and collects dust, because they mostly only have time to play a portable system.

Total sales for PS5 is going to largely depend on how much money Sony and/or Nintendo throw at Capcom.  If Nintendo makes Monster Hunter a Switch exclusive (unlikely), then I can see PS5 selling as low as 4m, which is a little above Wii U levels.  If Sony makes MH a PS5 exclusive (slightly more likely), then PS5 might go as high as 7m.  If MH is multiplat (most likely), then PS5 will probably end up in the 5m-6m range.  MH was really the game that helped the PSP and killed the Vita, and Sony and Nintendo might continue to make offers to Capcom to decide the fate of the home market in Japan as well.  On the other hand Sony seems to be giving up on Japan and Nintendo is already winning there without MH.  If Capcom doesn't get money thrown at them, then going multiplat with MH would be the best move.

PS5 sells somewhere in the 4m-7m range depending on MH.

PS5 will get more meaningful third party exclusives than the SW in Japan. Not only that but JP third party games do incredibly well on PS4 so third parties will be more than happy to continue with the PS5.

MHW became Capcoms best selling game of all time, outselling every single nintendo entry combined, all with one game and expansion. MHW2 will be on PS5 and unlikely on SW due to how weak it is.

I think this here is correct. Playstation 5 is garaunteed very strong Japanese support because Japanese developers typically depend on a worldwide market for their success and Playstation has proven to deliver that. Developers might now look at the success of the Switch and begin to test the waters but there is almost no reason to make content exclusive to Nintendo unless Nintendo is publishing (Octopath Traveller & Bravely Default II for example). However the PS5 is not out, so we don't know how quickly it will pick up. If its slow, developers may instead just focus on the PS4 & Switch, although again thats unlikely. 

For Playstation's success its not about the number of games, it's about the number that strike a cord with a wider Japanese audience, this is something which most developers struggle with, both western and Japanese. Nintendo however have a stronger grasp on this... Playstation 5 growing will depends on what games are being made and I don't think it will help much to just be more of the same. I don't think sony are obvious to this though, things like Astro Playroom coming pre-installed with PS5 highlight sony wanting to have a more interesting and unique make up of games and incourage developers to use the hardware in more interesting ways. PS5's branding is already quite different to PS4 (even down to the white aesthetic) and it will kick off with a much stronger, more Japanese friendly launch line up, so there is hope.

I think people forget that PS4 was kind of a wasteland for the first 2 years. Bloodborne was widely deemed its first must have exclusive and that was 17months after launch.