Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 28, 2020 (Jul 06 - Jul 12)

PS4 broke a lot of records regarding software, but anyone can see that those same games next iterations will probably have a decline, in japan and worldwide. It wouldn’t make sense for any game that isn’t top tier in graphics to not be on the market leader



Around the Network
src said:
noshten said:

Thanks, we are entering an era where Nintendo will have 70% of Hardware market minimum. Event at the best-case scenario PlayStation family will sell less than 1.5M combined next year. Let's say they lower the price of the PS4 once the PS5 launches, will it sell more than 500K for the year? Very unlikely and if the PS5 costs more than 50K Yen it's very unlikely PS5 sales surpass 1M next year, just for reference PS4 sold 1.27M in 2015, and PS3 sold 1.2M in 2007. The PS4 basicaly had no competition due to the Wii U, while the PS3 was close to that price but Sony's market share has contracted since 2007 and they are facing far more competition than the Wii which only sold 12.75M in Japan.

Overall anyone who is hoping for some sales in Japan will need to do business with Nintendo going forward and this is unlikely to change. Once Sony offers a portable alternative perhaps we might see some competition again but for the time being, even Earth Defense Force a game that has never been on a Nintendo device is set to launch on the Switch next year. D3 Publisher have historically been one of the smaller publishers that never had that much presence on Nintendo hardware but even they see the writing on the wall. By the end of next year, only Capcom and Falcom will be left. The decision will be made easy by the PS5 launch in Japan which will cement Playstation's role of bringing AAA Western Games to the Japanese public. It's a small niche but with gaming habits in Japan, there is little chance of a console like the PS5 to really sell anywhere near 10M, especially while competing with the Switch for AA support. 

Even PS4 with some of the biggest 3rd party Japanese games like Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Metal Gear Solid, Yakuza, Resident Evil, Persona, Nier being 90% exclusive to the Playstation ecosystem the PS4 is struggling to reach 10M. If you risk launching the next Persona or Nier there exclusively you can't even guarantee if it will sell as well as the prior games. Historical trends tell us to expect further decline for series that choose to remain exclusive until they become irrelevant for their home market. 

In the meantime the growth will be seen by those who embrace AA development, ports of forgotten games, publishing indies in Japan, and finally developing new IPs and experiences that could be enjoyed best on the Nintendo Switch(like Fishing Spirits or Fitness Boxing). 

As mentioned before Western indies have filled the void left by the lack of 3rd Party support. Games like Stardew Valley saw growth thanks to the lack of Harvest Moon for example. Games like Overcooked, Human Fall Flat provide co-op experiences that have helped them become evergreens in Japan on the eShop. Small outfits like Fly High Works who are localizing Western indies for Japan and launching their own games set to profit the most out of the current situation. 

There's so much wrong with this post that its hard to know where to even start.

PS5 will likely do as well as PS3/4 (9-10 million) which is still good. The national sensation that was the Wii only did 12.75 million. Software sales for PS4 are still strong, and even with low digital percentages have surpassed the PS3.

PS4 continues to get better Japanese support that the SW/3DS, and the same will be true for PS5. Playstation always get the best Japanese support simply due to their global software and hardware sales. Domestic sales are not as relevant and even if they were PS4/5 would still get said support.

You mention historical trends yet completely lie about said trends. I'll be showing both WW and JP:

Persona 5, Nier, Nioh, DQH/B, MHW, RE7, RE2R, DMCV, FFXV, FF7R, KH3, DBZ, Naruto, AC7, EDF, Power Pro Baseball, all showed record breaking growth largely if not entirely due to Playstation.

Atlus best selling game of all time is Persona 5 (PS4/3)

Tecmo best selling game of all time is Nioh (sales mostly on PS4)

Capcoms best selling game of all time MHW (sales mostly on PS4)

RE2R and RE7 outpacing RE5/6 (sales mostly on PS4)

DMCV best selling game in the franchise (sales mostly on PS4)

FFXV on track to match FF7/10 (sales mostly on PS4)

FF7R fastest selling FF of all time (exclusive on PS4)

KH3 fastest selling KH of all time (sales mostly on PS4)

DBZ,Naruto best selling anime games of all time (sales mostly on PS4)

AC7 broke franchise records overseas (sales mostly on PS4)

EDF5 best selling EDF of all time (exclusively on PS4)

Power Pro best selling since PS2 entries (PS4/V)

As you can see, in reality JP third parties have had record breaking success on PS4 and hence its no surprise that PS5 support will be stronger than SW.

Despite all that:

PS4: lowest-selling Playstation console in Japan of all times.

You're conflating worldwide sales with Japan sales. We're talking strictly about sales in Japan here, but you talk about worldwide sales. Most of those games did pretty poorly in their home market.



src said:
Agente42 said:

Sony has all third party support and the results was a market decrease,  the ps4 contenders: one disastrous stationary console ( WiiU), an old but good console ( 3DS), and another niche console ( PSvita) in Japan.  This not good. PS3 fights against the better portable all time( DS), another great portable (PSP), and a great action carnival arcade machine( Wii). Don't have the same support. And maybe, in the end, sell the same. 

Whats ps5  potential market space, easier or more difficult? 

PS5 is a considerably easier market. You guys continue to miss the driving factor for software development: software/ecosystem sales.

3DS/PSV was stronger competition to PS3/4 than SW will ever be, simply because they allowed devs to go exclusive to those platforms. SW can't do that because PS4 makes too much money for JP third party devs.

case in point, CAPCOM. PS4 has almost 8 times the sales of SW.

That's FY 2018, which ended March 2018. It would have been shocking if PS4 wouldn't have beaten the Switch by a large margin at the time, especially with the MHW launch in January. Also, again, that's worldwide sales, not just Japan, which is what this thread is all about.

Try a newer one for size. The one for FY 2020 doesn't seem ready yet (last update October 15), but the one for FY 2019 is. PS4 still leading, but sales dropped quite a bit while Switch sales almost doubled over the previous year:

Also, keep in mind those are just the physical sales, as digital sales are being counted separately and without distinction to which platform sold how much.



Using CAPCOM as datapoint is not very representative as their releases on Switch have been lackluster at best.
They have pretty much only put late ports and remasters on the System of course they are not going to sell as good as a new Monster Hunter and Resident Evil.

You can even see this in amounts of releases.
They released only 18 games on Switch
Compared to 42 on PS4



German YouTuber and Streamer:

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon 2020 thread

src said:
noshten said:

There is nothing wrong with conflating worldwide sales with the Domestic Japanese market. But if you want to talk about World Wide sales this is the wrong thread to bring up the topic. Out of all the things you listed only two are factually correct for the Japanese ma rket. So in the context of this thread, you seem to be talking more falsehoods than myself. Playstation might continue to receive the "best" Japanese support but when Taiko is outselling this output domestically you won't hear me talk about it too much in Famitsu threads. If you are failing to realize how Nintendo having 80% Hardware market share might effect Japanese 3rd parties output.. well I don't know what to tell you. In any case just in case you aren't familiar with the Japanese market I will break it down for you. 

Lastly, PS5 will be lucky to surpass 8M in Japan, the console is so obviously not focused on the market, that it's actively pushing consumers away - mostly with it's launch price. PS3 launched at a high price and it ended up doing 50% of what the PS2 did. I look forward the lessons you'd be taught when the PS5 launches and you see the actual demand for such a system in Japan. Sadly for Sony they are likely going to lose market share in a lot of cost-sensitive developing markets along with Japan unless they slash the price of the PS4 and keep producing it for price-sensitive consumers. 

Not sure why you wasted 10 lines saying "not for Japan" when I already mentioned it included global. I'm evidently more informed about the Japanese market since you can't even get general trends correct.

Nintendo having 80% hardware market share isn't go to stop Playstation continuing to get better third party support, because as I have said, and as history has shown for several generations, Japanese third party support is also dependent on overseas sales. If you want to talk about JP third party support then you need to talk about overseas sales as well. You should know this, since you call yourself informed.

Playstation hence continues to have the best JP third party support, in terms of sales share and number of titles. This is supported by data.

Its cute that you put Taiko as some bar, bu we look at third party sales as a whole (cumulative) and Playstation continues to dominate Nintendo in that regard.

Coming from the guy who thinks a SMT Remaster is going to do 300k on one platform, and justifies it by wrongly comparing it to a newline entry and its later released SKU, your projections are laughable.

All I can say is..at this point, any Japanese developer that ignores Switch, which is selling well in Japan and the rest of the world, are going to be criticized for having bad business decisions. Example would be games like the new SAO game.

Sure, there will be games that sell better on PS, but Switch sales would be an added bonus at worst.

The Switch is selling incredibly well and destroying the top 20 on the weekly charts in Japan. Why ignore an established user base that is still growing?



Around the Network

No one is even saying for Japanese 3rd Parties need to make exclusive games for the Switch, multiplat strategy is working and brings in the most money.

Why limit yourself unless Nintendo or Sony is footing the bill.



src said:
noshten said:

There is nothing wrong with conflating worldwide sales with the Domestic Japanese market. But if you want to talk about World Wide sales this is the wrong thread to bring up the topic. Out of all the things you listed only two are factually correct for the Japanese market. So in the context of this thread, you seem to be talking more falsehoods than myself. Playstation might continue to receive the "best" Japanese support but when Taiko is outselling this output domestically you won't hear me talk about it too much in Famitsu threads. If you are failing to realize how Nintendo having 80% Hardware market share might effect Japanese 3rd parties output.. well I don't know what to tell you. In any case just in case you aren't familiar with the Japanese market I will break it down for you. 

Lastly, PS5 will be lucky to surpass 8M in Japan, the console is so obviously not focused on the market, that it's actively pushing consumers away - mostly with it's launch price. PS3 launched at a high price and it ended up doing 50% of what the PS2 did. I look forward the lessons you'd be taught when the PS5 launches and you see the actual demand for such a system in Japan. Sadly for Sony they are likely going to lose market share in a lot of cost-sensitive developing markets along with Japan unless they slash the price of the PS4 and keep producing it for price-sensitive consumers. 

Not sure why you wasted 10 lines saying "not for Japan" when I already mentioned it included global. I'm evidently more informed about the Japanese market since you can't even get general trends correct.

Nintendo having 80% hardware market share isn't go to stop Playstation continuing to get better third party support, because as I have said, and as history has shown for several generations, Japanese third party support is also dependent on overseas sales. If you want to talk about JP third party support then you need to talk about overseas sales as well. You should know this, since you call yourself informed.

Playstation hence continues to have the best JP third party support, in terms of sales share and number of titles. This is supported by data.

Its cute that you put Taiko as some bar, bu we look at third party sales as a whole (cumulative) and Playstation continues to dominate Nintendo in that regard.

Coming from the guy who thinks a SMT Remaster is going to do 300k on one platform, and justifies it by wrongly comparing it to a newline entry and its later released SKU, your projections are laughable.

Please tell me the name of this article, why the hell do you even bring ww sales here???



So we just gon' act like src isn't an alt?? Lol



noshten said:

No one is even saying for Japanese 3rd Parties need to make exclusive games for the Switch, multiplat strategy is working and brings in the most money.

Why limit yourself unless Nintendo or Sony is footing the bill.

Actually I do think Japanese 3rd parties are going to make a fair amount of Switch exclusives, but also a good amount will be multiplat too. 

Anything that was a 3DS or Vita exclusive last gen I expect to be a Switch exclusive this gen.  (Examples: Rune Factory, Bravely Default, etc...).  There were also plenty of games that got both a Vita and PS4 release (Example: Hatsune Miku, Trails of Cold Steel series, etc...).  These are good candidates for Switch/PS5 multiplat, but some may decide to be Switch exclusives since it has a much higher install base than the Vita did, and it's also a home console.  Then there are games that were PS4 exclusives, but didn't push hardware limits (example: Persona).  These are really good candidates for Switch/PS5 multiplat.  And then there are the PS4 games that did push hardware limits (Examples: Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...).  These will probably stay Playstation exclusive.

Overall Switch is in a very good position to get Japanese third party games.  It should have at least as many third party exclusives as the 3DS/Vita did combined (maybe more), and it will also get plenty of Japanese multiplat games too.



PortisheadBiscuit said:

So we just gon' act like src isn't an alt?? Lol

It's been pointed out so many times and is so obvious by now that its just kinda generally accepted and goes without saying.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 July 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.