I wouldn't call this delusional, it's a Remaster of a 2003 game that is being released only in Japan this year. Doing 300K on the Switch is not outside of the realm of possibilities. 90% of buyers never had a chance to play the original, it just depends on whether Atlus pushes this during the holiday. Chances are they do because they 1) want to build an audience for SMT V 2) don't have much else to promote during the holidays

The previous SMT IV & IV Final sold over 400K combined on the 3DS. There is very little competition this year in this genre and there will be plenty of new owners of the Switch looking for games to buy. 

There's so much wrong with this post that its hard to know where to even start.

PS5 will likely do as well as PS3/4 (9-10 million) which is still good. The national sensation that was the Wii only did 12.75 million. Software sales for PS4 are still strong, and even with low digital percentages have surpassed the PS3.

PS4 continues to get better Japanese support that the SW/3DS, and the same will be true for PS5. Playstation always get the best Japanese support simply due to their global software and hardware sales. Domestic sales are not as relevant and even if they were PS4/5 would still get said support.

You mention historical trends yet completely lie about said trends. I'll be showing both WW and JP:

Persona 5, Nier, Nioh, DQH/B, MHW, RE7, RE2R, DMCV, FFXV, FF7R, KH3, DBZ, Naruto, AC7, EDF, Power Pro Baseball, all showed record breaking growth largely if not entirely due to Playstation.

Atlus best selling game of all time is Persona 5 (PS4/3)

Tecmo best selling game of all time is Nioh (sales mostly on PS4)

Capcoms best selling game of all time MHW (sales mostly on PS4)

RE2R and RE7 outpacing RE5/6 (sales mostly on PS4)

DMCV best selling game in the franchise (sales mostly on PS4)

FFXV on track to match FF7/10 (sales mostly on PS4)

FF7R fastest selling FF of all time (exclusive on PS4)

KH3 fastest selling KH of all time (sales mostly on PS4)

DBZ,Naruto best selling anime games of all time (sales mostly on PS4)

AC7 broke franchise records overseas (sales mostly on PS4)

EDF5 best selling EDF of all time (exclusively on PS4)

Power Pro best selling since PS2 entries (PS4/V)

As you can see, in reality JP third parties have had record breaking success on PS4 and hence its no surprise that PS5 support will be stronger than SW.

There is nothing wrong with conflating worldwide sales with the Domestic Japanese market. But if you want to talk about World Wide sales this is the wrong thread to bring up the topic. Out of all the things you listed only two are factually correct for the Japanese market. So in the context of this thread, you seem to be talking more falsehoods than myself. Playstation might continue to receive the "best" Japanese support but when Taiko is outselling this output domestically you won't hear me talk about it too much in Famitsu threads. If you are failing to realize how Nintendo having 80% Hardware market share might effect Japanese 3rd parties output.. well I don't know what to tell you. In any case just in case you aren't familiar with the Japanese market I will break it down for you. 

Atlus best selling game of all time is Persona 5 in Japan

this one is correct

Tecmo best selling game of all time is Nioh

not even close there were Warriors games with 1.2M sales on the PS2

Capcoms best selling game of all time MHW

not in Japan, there are 6 Capcom games that sold more

RE2R and RE7 outpacing RE5/6

not in Japan, there are 9 RE games that sold more

DMCV best selling game in the franchise 

not in Japan, there are 5 DMC games that sold more

FFXV on track to match FF7/10

not in Japan 13 FF games that sold more

FF7R fastest selling FF 

not in Japan, probably won't even pass 1M physical 

KH3 fastest selling KH of all time 

not in Japan, there are 3 other KH games that sold more

DBZ,Naruto best selling anime games of all time

a late port of Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 sold more on the Switch in Japan than any DBZ Game on the PS4 and PS3, there have been over 20 Naruto games that have sold more than the best selling PS4 Naruto game

AC7 broke franchise records overseas (sales mostly on PS4)

again talking about overseas 

EDF5 best selling EDF of all time (exclusively on PS4) 

this one is correct

Power Pro best selling since PS2 entries (PS4/V),

once again these games used to sell close to 1M, the best selling PS4 is 255K 

Lastly, PS5 will be lucky to surpass 8M in Japan, the console is so obviously not focused on the market, that it's actively pushing consumers away - mostly with it's launch price. PS3 launched at a high price and it ended up doing 50% of what the PS2 did. I look forward the lessons you'd be taught when the PS5 launches and you see the actual demand for such a system in Japan. Sadly for Sony they are likely going to lose market share in a lot of cost-sensitive developing markets along with Japan unless they slash the price of the PS4 and keep producing it for price-sensitive consumers. 

Not sure why you wasted 10 lines saying "not for Japan" when I already mentioned it included global. I'm evidently more informed about the Japanese market since you can't even get general trends correct.

Nintendo having 80% hardware market share isn't go to stop Playstation continuing to get better third party support, because as I have said, and as history has shown for several generations, Japanese third party support is also dependent on overseas sales. If you want to talk about JP third party support then you need to talk about overseas sales as well. You should know this, since you call yourself informed.

Playstation hence continues to have the best JP third party support, in terms of sales share and number of titles. This is supported by data.

Its cute that you put Taiko as some bar, bu we look at third party sales as a whole (cumulative) and Playstation continues to dominate Nintendo in that regard.

Coming from the guy who thinks a SMT Remaster is going to do 300k on one platform, and justifies it by wrongly comparing it to a newline entry and its later released SKU, your projections are laughable.

Agreed that just as PS4 sales will end up a little below PS3, PS5 sales should definitely fall below PS4 sales. PS5 is gonna have to compete against a completely dominant Switch from the get go, meaning there is very little chance it sells as well as PS4. 8 million is a reasonable expectation. Also I would certainly expect some of those big japanese games start moving to Nintendo, or at least be launched on Switch as well, which will hurt PS4 sales when it doesn't have those big Japanese as exclusives. Some of them will stay exclusive to Sony (to their own detriment), and some will be multiplat. It is obvious that something like Dragon Quest should be made Switch first and then ported to PS5, but something like Monster Hunter will probably just stay on Sony and then get ported to Switch 2 later on now that it has become a big western title and they seem to want to focus on graphics rather than dominating the Japan market.

Sony has all third party support and the results was a market decrease,  the ps4 contenders: one disastrous stationary console ( WiiU), an old but good console ( 3DS), and another niche console ( PSvita) in Japan.  This not good. PS3 fights against the better portable all time( DS), another great portable (PSP), and a great action carnival arcade machine( Wii). Don't have the same support. And maybe, in the end, sell the same. 

Whats ps5  potential market space, easier or more difficult? 

With the way Switch is dominating, I just dont see PS5 topping 8 million

It's looking less and less likely that PS4 will manage to reach PS3's Japanese sales.

From what we know of PS5 thus far, it doesn't seem like it will arrest this decline either.

PS5 is a considerably easier market. You guys continue to miss the driving factor for software development: software/ecosystem sales.

3DS/PSV was stronger competition to PS3/4 than SW will ever be, simply because they allowed devs to go exclusive to those platforms. SW can't do that because PS4 makes too much money for JP third party devs.

case in point, CAPCOM. PS4 has almost 8 times the sales of SW.

As I pointed out, Square Enix, Capcom, KT, NB, Atlus all had their best selling games of all time or franchise record breakers on Playstation. They're going to support Playstation even more considering the growth they had on PS4.

And we already see that, with Capcom, SE, NB launching a completely new IP already on PS5: Athia, Pragmata, Scarlet Nexus. None of this is going to be on SW. Neither is FF7R2, KH4, FF16, MHW2, RE8, etc

I really think 8m in Japan for PS5 is too optimistic.  Japanese people do not want first Sony first party games like Uncharted or God of War.  Spider-Man is probably the most popular first party game that they have for Japan.  

That just leaves third party games, and PS5 is going to get very few third party exclusives.  Only games which are bigger in the west like Final Fantasy will end up as third party exclusives, and even then Japanese studios have to seriously evaluate if they want to alienate their own country's fan base.  A third party game on the Switch can sell well both in Japan and overseas.  A third party game on the PS5 will only sell well overseas.  Very few Japanese people are going to want an expensive home console that sits there and collects dust, because they mostly only have time to play a portable system.

Total sales for PS5 is going to largely depend on how much money Sony and/or Nintendo throw at Capcom.  If Nintendo makes Monster Hunter a Switch exclusive (unlikely), then I can see PS5 selling as low as 4m, which is a little above Wii U levels.  If Sony makes MH a PS5 exclusive (slightly more likely), then PS5 might go as high as 7m.  If MH is multiplat (most likely), then PS5 will probably end up in the 5m-6m range.  MH was really the game that helped the PSP and killed the Vita, and Sony and Nintendo might continue to make offers to Capcom to decide the fate of the home market in Japan as well.  On the other hand Sony seems to be giving up on Japan and Nintendo is already winning there without MH.  If Capcom doesn't get money thrown at them, then going multiplat with MH would be the best move.

PS5 sells somewhere in the 4m-7m range depending on MH.