Famitsu Sales: Week 28, 2020 (Jul 06 - Jul 12)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

I really think 8m in Japan for PS5 is too optimistic.  Japanese people do not want first Sony first party games like Uncharted or God of War.  Spider-Man is probably the most popular first party game that they have for Japan.  

That just leaves third party games, and PS5 is going to get very few third party exclusives.  Only games which are bigger in the west like Final Fantasy will end up as third party exclusives, and even then Japanese studios have to seriously evaluate if they want to alienate their own country's fan base.  A third party game on the Switch can sell well both in Japan and overseas.  A third party game on the PS5 will only sell well overseas.  Very few Japanese people are going to want an expensive home console that sits there and collects dust, because they mostly only have time to play a portable system.

Total sales for PS5 is going to largely depend on how much money Sony and/or Nintendo throw at Capcom.  If Nintendo makes Monster Hunter a Switch exclusive (unlikely), then I can see PS5 selling as low as 4m, which is a little above Wii U levels.  If Sony makes MH a PS5 exclusive (slightly more likely), then PS5 might go as high as 7m.  If MH is multiplat (most likely), then PS5 will probably end up in the 5m-6m range.  MH was really the game that helped the PSP and killed the Vita, and Sony and Nintendo might continue to make offers to Capcom to decide the fate of the home market in Japan as well.  On the other hand Sony seems to be giving up on Japan and Nintendo is already winning there without MH.  If Capcom doesn't get money thrown at them, then going multiplat with MH would be the best move.

PS5 sells somewhere in the 4m-7m range depending on MH.