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Otter on 22 July 2020
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src said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I really think 8m in Japan for PS5 is too optimistic.  Japanese people do not want first Sony first party games like Uncharted or God of War.  Spider-Man is probably the most popular first party game that they have for Japan.  

That just leaves third party games, and PS5 is going to get very few third party exclusives.  Only games which are bigger in the west like Final Fantasy will end up as third party exclusives, and even then Japanese studios have to seriously evaluate if they want to alienate their own country's fan base.  A third party game on the Switch can sell well both in Japan and overseas.  A third party game on the PS5 will only sell well overseas.  Very few Japanese people are going to want an expensive home console that sits there and collects dust, because they mostly only have time to play a portable system.

Total sales for PS5 is going to largely depend on how much money Sony and/or Nintendo throw at Capcom.  If Nintendo makes Monster Hunter a Switch exclusive (unlikely), then I can see PS5 selling as low as 4m, which is a little above Wii U levels.  If Sony makes MH a PS5 exclusive (slightly more likely), then PS5 might go as high as 7m.  If MH is multiplat (most likely), then PS5 will probably end up in the 5m-6m range.  MH was really the game that helped the PSP and killed the Vita, and Sony and Nintendo might continue to make offers to Capcom to decide the fate of the home market in Japan as well.  On the other hand Sony seems to be giving up on Japan and Nintendo is already winning there without MH.  If Capcom doesn't get money thrown at them, then going multiplat with MH would be the best move.

PS5 sells somewhere in the 4m-7m range depending on MH.

PS5 will get more meaningful third party exclusives than the SW in Japan. Not only that but JP third party games do incredibly well on PS4 so third parties will be more than happy to continue with the PS5.

MHW became Capcoms best selling game of all time, outselling every single nintendo entry combined, all with one game and expansion. MHW2 will be on PS5 and unlikely on SW due to how weak it is.

I think this here is correct. Playstation 5 is garaunteed very strong Japanese support because Japanese developers typically depend on a worldwide market for their success and Playstation has proven to deliver that. Developers might now look at the success of the Switch and begin to test the waters but there is almost no reason to make content exclusive to Nintendo unless Nintendo is publishing (Octopath Traveller & Bravely Default II for example). However the PS5 is not out, so we don't know how quickly it will pick up. If its slow, developers may instead just focus on the PS4 & Switch, although again thats unlikely. 

For Playstation's success its not about the number of games, it's about the number that strike a cord with a wider Japanese audience, this is something which most developers struggle with, both western and Japanese. Nintendo however have a stronger grasp on this... Playstation 5 growing will depends on what games are being made and I don't think it will help much to just be more of the same. I don't think sony are obvious to this though, things like Astro Playroom coming pre-installed with PS5 highlight sony wanting to have a more interesting and unique make up of games and incourage developers to use the hardware in more interesting ways. PS5's branding is already quite different to PS4 (even down to the white aesthetic) and it will kick off with a much stronger, more Japanese friendly launch line up, so there is hope.

I think people forget that PS4 was kind of a wasteland for the first 2 years. Bloodborne was widely deemed its first must have exclusive and that was 17months after launch.