Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

This thread is full of the typical stereotypes:

"Sony consoles sell well for a longer time."

"Nintendo console sales fall off a cliff."

"All of Nintendo's big hitters have already launched."

Basically, it's the same story that has been told since 2018, based on cherry-picked data. So here are a few facts:

- The Switch is Nintendo's only system on the market and just days ago they have re-re-re-reiterated (Yes! They talk about it constantly!) that the Switch is going to have a long shelf life. How often will Nintendo have to repeat this before people drop the notion that Nintendo will abandon the console prematurely?

- Launches aligned, Switch sales are ahead of PS4 sales. Switch sales have continued to rise year after year, with the first half of 2020 by far being the strongest period the system has ever had.

- Nintendo has not released all of their big hitters for the platform. What about Nintendogs, 2D Mario, Switch Sports, Switch Fit, a new Mario Kart, a new 2D Zelda, Tomodatchi Life, or smaller titles like Starfox, F-Zero, Pikmin, etc.? Also, sequels can sell hardware and we accept that as simple fact on other platforms.

- The Switch has never had a price cut and it never had a major revision of the main model, just the Switch Lite and a boost to battery life.

Long story short: The Switch is still accelerating and outpacing the PS4, has many big franchises left that can still debut on the console and won't be abandoned prematurely by Nintendo. Also, Nintendo's titles are evergreen titles and sell consoles for a long time, so there's a cumulative effect. The chances of the Switch to outsell the PS4 at this point are higher than 50%. Would I bet on it? No, Nintendo likes to make stupid mistakes. Does the Switch have a way higher sales potential than the PS4 due to it appealing to a broader audience? Absolutely. 



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I feel like PS4 is safely at 130m

Switch can reach that, whether it will I feel like its just a shot in the dark at this point. I think only when next holiday approaches will it be clear.



Yes, it will.

We are already in the period that pundits kept predicting to show decline for Switch, which is the same period where Nintendo's strategy of combining all of their software output on one platform could be expected to really materialize, provided one paid attention. Previous Nintendo consoles have shown correlations between their declines and diminishing output of EAD teams (nowadays called EPD), but Switch won't see fewer games of EPD teams.

The goalposts keep moving. Switch's peak year was supposed to happen every year since 2017, but its sales kept increasing. Now that we are actually approaching the peak, the focus will be on a rapid decline because that's what is necessary in order for Switch to not pass the PS4 in lifetime sales. What will happen instead is a prolonged sales plateau because Nintendo's top development teams can keep releasing big games while the console itself goes through multiple price cuts and revisions over time. That's three predictable factors that many don't (want to) see, however.

One interesting thing to watch is longevity: The amount of sales of a console after its successor has launched. The common belief is that PS consoles have incredible longevity, but that's solely based on the PS1 and PS2 while shoving the PSP, PS3 and PSV to the side. The best post-successor sales in generation 8 might actually belong to a Nintendo console (the 3DS) and once it dawns on people that there's a strong correlation between first party support and hardware sales, they might just reconsider their stance for Switch lifetime sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Nintendo Switch will become the best selling system of all time.  So yes, it will overtake the PS4.



No it won't.



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It is likely but still hard to say. Ask again in 2 years.



All the No in this thread, even some worse than that. NSW selling ahead of ps4 and is peaking this year and lastly have a longer life cycle than a normal console would. Those that don’t think there is any chance isn’t paying much attention :P



I would say there is a high chance that Nintendo might manage it and as for how they usually drop.support immediately to focus on their next console, that made sense before, what with keeping support would mean 3 consoles to.support at a time, including their handheld lines. Now they only have Switch and their future console to look at.



No. The PS4 will end up selling ~130 million units, and honestly, anyone who thinks that next-gen systems won't start to chip away from the Switch from next year is fooling themselves. The Switch can easily reach 120 million, but IMO it will fall short of the PS4 by ~10 million LT.

The issue is that if Nintendo decides to push out the Swith for let's say 8 years as their sole system, they might remain without a viable platform for 2-3 years until the S2 grows to a sizable install base. I don't see them doing that. They will bring out a successor early 2024 the latest.



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Louie said:

This thread is full of the typical stereotypes:

"Sony consoles sell well for a longer time."

"Nintendo console sales fall off a cliff."

"All of Nintendo's big hitters have already launched."

Basically, it's the same story that has been told since 2018, based on cherry-picked data. So here are a few facts:

- The Switch is Nintendo's only system on the market and just days ago they have re-re-re-reiterated (Yes! They talk about it constantly!) that the Switch is going to have a long shelf life. How often will Nintendo have to repeat this before people drop the notion that Nintendo will abandon the console prematurely?

- Launches aligned, Switch sales are ahead of PS4 sales. Switch sales have continued to rise year after year, with the first half of 2020 by far being the strongest period the system has ever had.

- Nintendo has not released all of their big hitters for the platform. What about Nintendogs, 2D Mario, Switch Sports, Switch Fit, a new Mario Kart, a new 2D Zelda, Tomodatchi Life, or smaller titles like Starfox, F-Zero, Pikmin, etc.? Also, sequels can sell hardware and we accept that as simple fact on other platforms.

- The Switch has never had a price cut and it never had a major revision of the main model, just the Switch Lite and a boost to battery life.

Long story short: The Switch is still accelerating and outpacing the PS4, has many big franchises left that can still debut on the console and won't be abandoned prematurely by Nintendo. Also, Nintendo's titles are evergreen titles and sell consoles for a long time, so there's a cumulative effect. The chances of the Switch to outsell the PS4 at this point are higher than 50%. Would I bet on it? No, Nintendo likes to make stupid mistakes. Does the Switch have a way higher sales potential than the PS4 due to it appealing to a broader audience? Absolutely. 

You may as well type this in notepad, save to desktop and have it ready to copy & paste next time this thread gets made.

hunter_alien said:
No. The PS4 will end up selling ~130 million units, and honestly, anyone who thinks that next-gen systems won't start to chip away from the Switch from next year is fooling themselves. The Switch can easily reach 120 million, but IMO it will fall short of the PS4 by ~10 million LT.

The issue is that if Nintendo decides to push out the Swith for let's say 8 years as their sole system, they might remain without a viable platform for 2-3 years until the S2 grows to a sizable install base. I don't see them doing that. They will bring out a successor early 2024 the latest.

Without a 'viable platform' for what exactly? Playing Nintendo games? I can't see a more viable platform for that on the market right now.