This thread is full of the typical stereotypes:
"Sony consoles sell well for a longer time."
"Nintendo console sales fall off a cliff."
"All of Nintendo's big hitters have already launched."
Basically, it's the same story that has been told since 2018, based on cherry-picked data. So here are a few facts:
- The Switch is Nintendo's only system on the market and just days ago they have re-re-re-reiterated (Yes! They talk about it constantly!) that the Switch is going to have a long shelf life. How often will Nintendo have to repeat this before people drop the notion that Nintendo will abandon the console prematurely?
- Launches aligned, Switch sales are ahead of PS4 sales. Switch sales have continued to rise year after year, with the first half of 2020 by far being the strongest period the system has ever had.
- Nintendo has not released all of their big hitters for the platform. What about Nintendogs, 2D Mario, Switch Sports, Switch Fit, a new Mario Kart, a new 2D Zelda, Tomodatchi Life, or smaller titles like Starfox, F-Zero, Pikmin, etc.? Also, sequels can sell hardware and we accept that as simple fact on other platforms.
- The Switch has never had a price cut and it never had a major revision of the main model, just the Switch Lite and a boost to battery life.
Long story short: The Switch is still accelerating and outpacing the PS4, has many big franchises left that can still debut on the console and won't be abandoned prematurely by Nintendo. Also, Nintendo's titles are evergreen titles and sell consoles for a long time, so there's a cumulative effect. The chances of the Switch to outsell the PS4 at this point are higher than 50%. Would I bet on it? No, Nintendo likes to make stupid mistakes. Does the Switch have a way higher sales potential than the PS4 due to it appealing to a broader audience? Absolutely.