I bet no, Nintendo always aborts their consoles abruptly like an unwanted fetus so that they can position their next console between the Sony and Micro new hardware releases, focusing all their software for the new console.
One thing that could prove me wrong though, third party small titles that may be popular in the Switch may carry the console further than how Nintendo consoles have done in the past, but I have no idea about numbers of how well small third party titles do on the Switch so I really don't know.
If the Switch's success depends entirely on first party sales on the Switch then in will come the drought of titles as Nintendo moves to their "Catch Up Gen" release with whatever comes after Switch and with that drought so to will come the death of the Switch, put to pasture as soon as Nintendo decides to abruptly abort once again another console in favor of strategic release dates,
Your scenario is historically true for Consoles, but not so much for how Nintendo has treated their handhelds. Switch being a hybrid of the two, and the videogame market being very different from what it once was, there's no guarantee that Nintendo will abruptly drop support for Switch like they did for most of their home consoles. I also don't foresee there being much pressure on Nintendo to "catch up" to Microsoft and Sony from a hardware perspective as their system caters to a different market with different expectations. It's not like they felt pressured to make the 3DS catch up to the PS4 when it launched.
So gonna throw my hat in and say Switch will equal, but not exceed PS4 sales, with the PS4 having only a slightly longer lifespan.