Let's say PS4 will end up at 125-130 millions
The Switch should be at around 77 millions after 4 years.

I think after this year doing 23-25 millions without a price cut and maybe a new model, I dont see it free falling in the coming years since this situation is completely different from the Wii (Arrival of HD TV in the mainstream market, people actually not really liking the system while the switch is beloved.)

So let's say it can pull off a 19 millions next year and a 16 millions after that which is probably a rough case scenario.. then it ends up at 112 millions after 6 years. Nintendo speaks of making it longer than usual, and I believe them since they now have only 1 system so they will make it work while they have a successful one, it could have another 11 and 6 million years putting it around the same range as the PS4.

So it might seem far but it is really possible. It will probably be a tight, last minute victory

Probably not, but they will come pretty close.

It all depends how long Nintendo supports the Switch after Switch 2 comes out. It looks like Switch will be easily ahead of PS4 through 6 years, but PS4 is having quite a good year this year considering it is about to be replaced. By year 7 I'm sure Switch will be selling less than PS4 is this year. Then it comes down to how much they sell after they are replaced as to whether PS4 can pass it when their timelines are matched up. Ninty systems tend to die out pretty quickly once replaced while Playstations sell for years after being replaced. I wouldn't be surprised if PS4's sales next year match the entirety of Switch sales after Switch 2 comes out. My gut tells me because of this PS4 will end up maybe like 5 million ahead of Switch, maybe 130+ to 125+ million. But we also have to remember Switch hasn't even gotten a price cut and its sales are way hotter than PS4's ever were.

It wouldn't at all surprise me if Switch built up too large a lead this year and next year in their lined up timelines for PS4 to ever catch up, but I do expect PS4 to sell many millions more than Switch after they are each replaced, so it's just as likely in years 7, 8, 9 Switch is selling multiple millions fewer systems per year than PS4 and doesn't quite catch it. It'll be close and could go either way but because of Playstation's well known longevity and how well it seems like it is going to do this year I'm gonna give the slight edge to PS4 but basically it's gonna be like PS3/360, there's gonna be a small difference that doesn't really matter, they'll both have done about as well as each other.

On pace to have a 25 million year without communication and still no price cut.

Yet people think it will die in the next 2 years. I have to laugh.

Yes it will. I think PS4 is going to finish in between 125-130m. Switch will end up between 130-135m, slightly ahead.

First, many seem to forget that Nintendo themselves have already said they plan on keeping this console around longer than they usually do so if it get's 6 solid years of good to excellent support it will likely be in the 120 million range. The last couple years refreshes, special editions, price cuts, an amazing game, etc will easily push it to 140-150 range and it's last couple of years without new releases with a new console out it will likely end up as the best selling hardware of all time.

No. The PS5 is going to hit 120M-130M. Maybe more if they ever get it to <$199 permanently. This year is going to be the peak for Switch. A full year with a $199 SKU and Covid-19 boosting sales. And with Animal Crossing launched, I think that really is all of Nintendo's big titles having at least one entry on the system. In the end, I think it will hit 100M-115M.

I think it will fall just short. Somewhere within 5-10 million of PS4's total.

The PS4 has sold far above what I expected, and it keeps on selling.
I do not think the switch will be able to catch up. It also sells extremely well I just don't think that there is enough market for it to reach 130 mil.

When it comes to Nintendos best sellers the DS and the Gameboy, both of them got revisions of the console that had an upgrade making owners of the first released models dubble dip. And in the case of the game boy, it had a 12 years life span.
I actually bought 4 versions of the DS, one original, one lite that just had a far superior design and screen, another DS lite when my first one got to hackneyed, and a third DS lite, since it was cheap and I wanted a backup if the one I use would stop working. The last one is still unopened in its box.

I just cannot see any upgrade to the switch that will get me to buy another one. Upscaling to 4K in docked mode sure could be nice and there is room for a larger screen while keeping the size of it the same. But upgrades like that will not make my rebuy the thing.
My guesstimate is that the switch will land in the 120 mil range. Still very good, but topping the PS4, i think not.

This thread is full of the typical stereotypes:

"Sony consoles sell well for a longer time."

"Nintendo console sales fall off a cliff."

"All of Nintendo's big hitters have already launched."

Basically, it's the same story that has been told since 2018, based on cherry-picked data. So here are a few facts:

- The Switch is Nintendo's only system on the market and just days ago they have re-re-re-reiterated (Yes! They talk about it constantly!) that the Switch is going to have a long shelf life. How often will Nintendo have to repeat this before people drop the notion that Nintendo will abandon the console prematurely?

- Launches aligned, Switch sales are ahead of PS4 sales. Switch sales have continued to rise year after year, with the first half of 2020 by far being the strongest period the system has ever had.

- Nintendo has not released all of their big hitters for the platform. What about Nintendogs, 2D Mario, Switch Sports, Switch Fit, a new Mario Kart, a new 2D Zelda, Tomodatchi Life, or smaller titles like Starfox, F-Zero, Pikmin, etc.? Also, sequels can sell hardware and we accept that as simple fact on other platforms.

- The Switch has never had a price cut and it never had a major revision of the main model, just the Switch Lite and a boost to battery life.

Long story short: The Switch is still accelerating and outpacing the PS4, has many big franchises left that can still debut on the console and won't be abandoned prematurely by Nintendo. Also, Nintendo's titles are evergreen titles and sell consoles for a long time, so there's a cumulative effect. The chances of the Switch to outsell the PS4 at this point are higher than 50%. Would I bet on it? No, Nintendo likes to make stupid mistakes. Does the Switch have a way higher sales potential than the PS4 due to it appealing to a broader audience? Absolutely.