Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

AbbathTheGrim said:
I bet no, Nintendo always aborts their consoles abruptly like an unwanted fetus so that they can position their next console between the Sony and Micro new hardware releases, focusing all their software for the new console.

One thing that could prove me wrong though, third party small titles that may be popular in the Switch may carry the console further than how Nintendo consoles have done in the past, but I have no idea about numbers of how well small third party titles do on the Switch so I really don't know.

If the Switch's success depends entirely on first party sales on the Switch then in will come the drought of titles as Nintendo moves to their "Catch Up Gen" release with whatever comes after Switch and with that drought so to will come the death of the Switch, put to pasture as soon as Nintendo decides to abruptly abort once again another console in favor of strategic release dates,

Your scenario is historically true for Consoles, but not so much for how Nintendo has treated their handhelds. Switch being a hybrid of the two, and the videogame market being very different from what it once was, there's no guarantee that Nintendo will abruptly drop support for Switch like they did for most of their home consoles. I also don't foresee there being much pressure on Nintendo to "catch up" to Microsoft and Sony from a hardware perspective as their system caters to a different market with different expectations. It's not like they felt pressured to make the 3DS catch up to the PS4 when it launched.

So gonna throw my hat in and say Switch will equal, but not exceed PS4 sales, with the PS4 having only a slightly longer lifespan.

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Let's say PS4 will end up at 125-130 millions
The Switch should be at around 77 millions after 4 years.

I think after this year doing 23-25 millions without a price cut and maybe a new model, I dont see it free falling in the coming years since this situation is completely different from the Wii (Arrival of HD TV in the mainstream market, people actually not really liking the system while the switch is beloved.)

So let's say it can pull off a 19 millions next year and a 16 millions after that which is probably a rough case scenario.. then it ends up at 112 millions after 6 years. Nintendo speaks of making it longer than usual, and I believe them since they now have only 1 system so they will make it work while they have a successful one, it could have another 11 and 6 million years putting it around the same range as the PS4.

So it might seem far but it is really possible. It will probably be a tight, last minute victory

Probably not, but they will come pretty close.

It all depends how long Nintendo supports the Switch after Switch 2 comes out. It looks like Switch will be easily ahead of PS4 through 6 years, but PS4 is having quite a good year this year considering it is about to be replaced. By year 7 I'm sure Switch will be selling less than PS4 is this year. Then it comes down to how much they sell after they are replaced as to whether PS4 can pass it when their timelines are matched up. Ninty systems tend to die out pretty quickly once replaced while Playstations sell for years after being replaced. I wouldn't be surprised if PS4's sales next year match the entirety of Switch sales after Switch 2 comes out. My gut tells me because of this PS4 will end up maybe like 5 million ahead of Switch, maybe 130+ to 125+ million. But we also have to remember Switch hasn't even gotten a price cut and its sales are way hotter than PS4's ever were.

It wouldn't at all surprise me if Switch built up too large a lead this year and next year in their lined up timelines for PS4 to ever catch up, but I do expect PS4 to sell many millions more than Switch after they are each replaced, so it's just as likely in years 7, 8, 9 Switch is selling multiple millions fewer systems per year than PS4 and doesn't quite catch it. It'll be close and could go either way but because of Playstation's well known longevity and how well it seems like it is going to do this year I'm gonna give the slight edge to PS4 but basically it's gonna be like PS3/360, there's gonna be a small difference that doesn't really matter, they'll both have done about as well as each other.

On pace to have a 25 million year without communication and still no price cut.

Yet people think it will die in the next 2 years. I have to laugh.

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Yes it will. I think PS4 is going to finish in between 125-130m. Switch will end up between 130-135m, slightly ahead.

First, many seem to forget that Nintendo themselves have already said they plan on keeping this console around longer than they usually do so if it get's 6 solid years of good to excellent support it will likely be in the 120 million range. The last couple years refreshes, special editions, price cuts, an amazing game, etc will easily push it to 140-150 range and it's last couple of years without new releases with a new console out it will likely end up as the best selling hardware of all time.

Nintendo with the Switch:

No. The PS5 is going to hit 120M-130M. Maybe more if they ever get it to <$199 permanently. This year is going to be the peak for Switch. A full year with a $199 SKU and Covid-19 boosting sales. And with Animal Crossing launched, I think that really is all of Nintendo's big titles having at least one entry on the system. In the end, I think it will hit 100M-115M.

I think it will fall just short. Somewhere within 5-10 million of PS4's total.

The PS4 has sold far above what I expected, and it keeps on selling.
I do not think the switch will be able to catch up. It also sells extremely well I just don't think that there is enough market for it to reach 130 mil.

When it comes to Nintendos best sellers the DS and the Gameboy, both of them got revisions of the console that had an upgrade making owners of the first released models dubble dip. And in the case of the game boy, it had a 12 years life span.
I actually bought 4 versions of the DS, one original, one lite that just had a far superior design and screen, another DS lite when my first one got to hackneyed, and a third DS lite, since it was cheap and I wanted a backup if the one I use would stop working. The last one is still unopened in its box.

I just cannot see any upgrade to the switch that will get me to buy another one. Upscaling to 4K in docked mode sure could be nice and there is room for a larger screen while keeping the size of it the same. But upgrades like that will not make my rebuy the thing.
My guesstimate is that the switch will land in the 120 mil range. Still very good, but topping the PS4, i think not.