Mostly agree with many of these things other than the PS4 sales the next 2-3 years.  I think it would end up around 120 million units.

You have to remember the tracking that you are referencing the PS4 had 4 holiday seasons (it launched during it) while the Switch has had 3 in the same period.  After this Holiday season the Switch will be blowing it away.

Also, if there was no Xbox, I think the PS4 would have been the best selling console of all time because Nintendo would have gifted them multiple years of no competition, lol.

One thing I don't see mentioned too often, that Switch on it's current trajectory with momentum and enough supply, could not only swoop pass 3DS at the end of this year, but also reach 100mil units sold by the end of next year.

The record for a calendar year is DS 2008 at just under 30m, while right now week-for-week Switch is ahead of it. If it can reach 30m or even near that for the year, it'd then just have to follow with 20-25m sales next year to reach 100m. In a year likely stacked with huge software, with more announced/showcased for soon after helping momentum.

20m+ for next calendar year should be the expectation by now, unless you're a believer in 'Cliff Theory'.

So PS4, currently the fastest home console to reach 100m units sold, yet Switch is on track to beat that milestone by about a year.

The PS4 is currently at 112M. I don't think its possible (even with the PS5) that it ends up selling only 8M units in the next 2-3 years. That would e the most drastic fall off of an outgoing PS console ever; maybe only second to the PS3.

While I do believe that is exactly what sony would want (which again, explains why the PS4 is still $299), I just think its highly unlikely. Then again, its possible, and for that to happen would mean that the PS5 would really jump off to a great start.

If there was a way to track sales of used consoles, then that would give u the data we need to prove this; if sony keeps the PS4 at $299 and drops the Proto $349, and have a PS5 at $399, they are basically saying "you've gotta be stupid to still buy a PS4 when there is a $399 PS5 on the market. And this strategy would instead push PS4 owners to sell their PS4s and add some money to that and get a PS5.

You could be right though, in a best-case scenario of that happening, most "new" buys for a PS4 would be super budget-minded people picking up a used PS4 for around $199. Cause it just won't make sense to buy a new PS4 at $299.

What I don't see mentioned and that is of even greater significance; its the price of these consoles.

PS4 launched at $399. 
Nintendo Switch launched at $299

PS4 dropped to $299 35 months after launch and has stayed at that price since.
Nintendo Switch introduced a $199 Switch 18 months after its original launch.

Would a $299 switch be pushing these kinda numbers? I mean just compare Switch sales this year and last year before the Lite. What kinda numbers would a $199 PS4 be pushing if say in fall 2018 the promotional $199 price became permanent?

At the end of the day, yes... one can say this is fastest and so on, but context is lost when the price is not considered, cause price is one of the most important driving factors of sales. This is part of what really makes these comparisons just for fun and giggles. Its like comparing apples to oranges, not only are they two fundamentally different types of consoles, that they are is also reflected in their pricing.

Yeah Switch is almost guaranteed to be the fastest selling system to 100m at this point. I think the main question is how will it be selling in its last year before being replaced and how will it sell after being replaced versus the PS4. I expect PS4 to do several million better after being replaced since Nintendo always completely shuts off support at that point. Still its looking more and more likely that Switch could have close to a 10 million unit lead coming into its final year (maybe ~114 to ~105) which should be enough to hold off any post-successor success of PS4.

But you are conveniently ignoring the fact that the Switch hasn't had a price cut yet!

The Lite offers fewer features: no joy cons, no TV gaming, no two player with the included controllers, no single-system multiplayer at all. No doubt the Lite helps, as did the PS4 price cut, but the fact remains Switch is at 41 months with no price cut, this year is selling far better than the PS4 ever did despite the PS4+Xb1 providing more competition to Switch than WiiU+Xb1 did to PS4, plus you have people obviously saving up for the two next gen systems right now which adds more competition for people's money, and yet still Switch is destroying any year PS4 had.

The Switch is currently at 41 months without a price cut, while as you said PS4 got a price cut at 35 months, and it is looking likely the Switch will go another 12 months without a price cut given its monster sales. And it is already out pacing the PS4 despite this, by a year from now it should be over 5 million in front of PS4's pace.

So yes, taking pricing into context does matter, which makes the Switch look even stronger because it hasn't gotten a price cut and a portable-only cheaper system is not the same as a price cut, as we can see be the fact that the Lite isn't nearly as popular as the OG Switch even at $100 cheaper, even in Japan!

You didn't make an argument against Switch's position, you made an argument in favor of Switch's stronger position!

Also, Lite came out 30 months after Switch launched, not 18 months. Again, making the case in favor of the Switch's strength at this point in their life cycles in comparison to PS4.

The thing is your comparing a new model that’s not even a popular model of the two (OG vs Lite). It’s not a price cut, a price cut for the OG model would be x3 more effective than teleasing the lite. In japan which is handheld land, Japanese heavily prefer the OG model over the lite.

And another weird thing since your comparing price, NSW hasn’t gotten any discounts on any models while ps4 gets temporary holiday discounts so then makes ps4 essentially cheaper.

As for the Lite, it’s a stripped down NSW, it’s priced good for what it is. A PS4 for $200 is equivalent to $100 Lite. You can’t only compare hardware to price. If you did why didn’t the Vita set the world on fire with being the cheapest model (PS Vita TV $100). 

it was a stripped down handheld that was the opposite of the lite. Again price is a factor but comparisons isn’t always 1 to 1

example if ps5 is $350, that would be more valuable than a NSW at $300 just because the difference in hardware

Still no price cut
Demand is still very high
Stock depleted too fast

Very easy for NSW to outsell PS4