| scottslater said: Mostly agree with many of these things other than the PS4 sales the next 2-3 years. I think it would end up around 120 million units. You have to remember the tracking that you are referencing the PS4 had 4 holiday seasons (it launched during it) while the Switch has had 3 in the same period. After this Holiday season the Switch will be blowing it away. Also, if there was no Xbox, I think the PS4 would have been the best selling console of all time because Nintendo would have gifted them multiple years of no competition, lol. |
The PS4 is currently at 112M. I don't think its possible (even with the PS5) that it ends up selling only 8M units in the next 2-3 years. That would e the most drastic fall off of an outgoing PS console ever; maybe only second to the PS3.
While I do believe that is exactly what sony would want (which again, explains why the PS4 is still $299), I just think its highly unlikely. Then again, its possible, and for that to happen would mean that the PS5 would really jump off to a great start.
If there was a way to track sales of used consoles, then that would give u the data we need to prove this; if sony keeps the PS4 at $299 and drops the Proto $349, and have a PS5 at $399, they are basically saying "you've gotta be stupid to still buy a PS4 when there is a $399 PS5 on the market. And this strategy would instead push PS4 owners to sell their PS4s and add some money to that and get a PS5.
You could be right though, in a best-case scenario of that happening, most "new" buys for a PS4 would be super budget-minded people picking up a used PS4 for around $199. Cause it just won't make sense to buy a new PS4 at $299.
| Shaunodon said: One thing I don't see mentioned too often, that Switch on it's current trajectory with momentum and enough supply, could not only swoop pass 3DS at the end of this year, but also reach 100mil units sold by the end of next year. The record for a calendar year is DS 2008 at just under 30m, while right now week-for-week Switch is ahead of it. If it can reach 30m or even near that for the year, it'd then just have to follow with 20-25m sales next year to reach 100m. In a year likely stacked with huge software, with more announced/showcased for soon after helping momentum. 20m+ for next calendar year should be the expectation by now, unless you're a believer in 'Cliff Theory'. So PS4, currently the fastest home console to reach 100m units sold, yet Switch is on track to beat that milestone by about a year. |
What I don't see mentioned and that is of even greater significance; its the price of these consoles.
PS4 launched at $399.
Nintendo Switch launched at $299
PS4 dropped to $299 35 months after launch and has stayed at that price since.
Nintendo Switch introduced a $199 Switch 18 months after its original launch.
Would a $299 switch be pushing these kinda numbers? I mean just compare Switch sales this year and last year before the Lite. What kinda numbers would a $199 PS4 be pushing if say in fall 2018 the promotional $199 price became permanent?
At the end of the day, yes... one can say this is fastest and so on, but context is lost when the price is not considered, cause price is one of the most important driving factors of sales. This is part of what really makes these comparisons just for fun and giggles. Its like comparing apples to oranges, not only are they two fundamentally different types of consoles, that they are is also reflected in their pricing.
