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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

scottslater said:
Proxy-Pie said:

I highly doubt it. I imagine Switch's successor will be out in 2022 or so, it can't pass the PS4 by then even if we assume the PS4 will have a huge drop-off in sales like the PS3.

No way a successor comes out 5 years after the Switch launch.  Nintendo has already said they plan on riding the Switch longer than usual and already has an "evergreen" lineup of games.  Games that were in it's initial launch year (BotW, MK8, etc) are still top selling games.  It's the hottest gaming item since the Wii.

I hope so! I haven't even got one yet.



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PS4 and Switch Quarterly shipments for the first 15 for PS4 and 14 for Switch. 

 Quarter  PS4  PS4 Total  Switch  Switch Total Difference
Q1 4.5 4.5 2.74 2.74 1.76
Q2 3.0 7.5 1.97 4.70 2.8
Q3 2.7 10.2 2.93 7.63 2.57
Q4 3.3 13.5 7.23 14.86 -1.36
Q5 6.4 19.9 2.93 17.79 2.11
Q6 2.4 22.3 1.88 19.67 2.63
Q7 3.0 25.3 3.19 22.86 2.44
Q8 4.0 29.3 9.41 32.27 -2.97
Q9 8.4 37.7 2.47 34.74 3.13
Q10 2.3 40 2.13 36.87 3.63
Q11 3.5 43.5 4.80 41.67 1.83
Q12 3.9 47.4 10.81 52.48 -5.08
Q13 9.7 57.1 3.29 55.77 1.33
Q14 2.9 60 5.68 61.45 -1.45
Q15 3.3 63.3

switch passes PS4 again

edit: fixed decimal point Q4.

Last edited by Chicho - on 07 August 2020

The Switch is gonna have at least a 25 million year and potentially a 27-28 million one which is several million higher than the PS4's highest year and after the next couple quarters will have a big lead. It'll also be the second highest a year a system has ever had beating the Wii's highest. At this point it's pretty likely it does and if has a good 2021 then it becomes most likely. It's no longer reasonable to think there's no possibility of it happening. If Nintendo doesn't screw up the floor for the Switch should now be about 120 million which is not that far from what the PS4's lifetime sales will be. The floor just needs to be exceeded by about 10-15 million to make it very likely it gets outsold.



Norion said:
The Switch is gonna have at least a 25 million year and potentially a 27-28 million one which is several million higher than the PS4's highest year and after the next couple quarters will have a big lead. It'll also be the second highest a year a system has ever had beating the Wii's highest. At this point it's pretty likely it does and if has a good 2021 then it becomes most likely. It's no longer reasonable to think there's no possibility of it happening. If Nintendo doesn't screw up the floor for the Switch should now be about 120 million which is not that far from what the PS4's lifetime sales will be. The floor just needs to be exceeded by about 10-15 million to make it very likely it gets outsold.

The PS4 won't get to 130 millions. Maybe like 10% chance if they release a super slim or something. But at this rate it's not happening.



xMetroid said:
Norion said:
The Switch is gonna have at least a 25 million year and potentially a 27-28 million one which is several million higher than the PS4's highest year and after the next couple quarters will have a big lead. It'll also be the second highest a year a system has ever had beating the Wii's highest. At this point it's pretty likely it does and if has a good 2021 then it becomes most likely. It's no longer reasonable to think there's no possibility of it happening. If Nintendo doesn't screw up the floor for the Switch should now be about 120 million which is not that far from what the PS4's lifetime sales will be. The floor just needs to be exceeded by about 10-15 million to make it very likely it gets outsold.

The PS4 won't get to 130 millions. Maybe like 10% chance if they release a super slim or something. But at this rate it's not happening.

I'm less sure on that. I think it most likely won't but could see it getting to the early 130's as the upper range. It'll all depend on how much the post successor launch sales exceed the PS3's.



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Personally I'm thinking during 2023 it will happen.



Chicho said:

PS4 and Switch Quarterly shipments for the first 15 for PS4 and 14 for Switch. 

 Quarter  PS4  PS4 Total  Switch  Switch Total Difference
Q1 4.5 4.5 2.74 2.74 1.76
Q2 3.0 7.5 1.97 4.70 2.8
Q3 2.7 10.2 2.93 7.63 2.57
Q4 3.3 13.5 7.23 14.86 -136
Q5 6.4 19.9 2.93 17.79 2.11
Q6 2.4 22.3 1.88 19.67 2.63
Q7 3.0 25.3 3.19 22.86 2.44
Q8 4.0 29.3 9.41 32.27 -2.97
Q9 8.4 37.7 2.47 34.74 3.13
Q10 2.3 40 2.13 36.87 3.63
Q11 3.5 43.5 4.80 41.67 1.83
Q12 3.9 47.4 10.81 52.48 -5.08
Q13 9.7 57.1 3.29 55.77 1.33
Q14 2.9 60 5.68 61.45 -1.45
Q15 3.3 63.3

switch passes PS4 again

And in my view, for the last time.



Chicho said:

PS4 and Switch Quarterly shipments for the first 15 for PS4 and 14 for Switch. 

 Quarter  PS4  PS4 Total  Switch  Switch Total Difference
Q1 4.5 4.5 2.74 2.74 1.76
Q2 3.0 7.5 1.97 4.70 2.8
Q3 2.7 10.2 2.93 7.63 2.57
Q4 3.3 13.5 7.23 14.86 -136
Q5 6.4 19.9 2.93 17.79 2.11
Q6 2.4 22.3 1.88 19.67 2.63
Q7 3.0 25.3 3.19 22.86 2.44
Q8 4.0 29.3 9.41 32.27 -2.97
Q9 8.4 37.7 2.47 34.74 3.13
Q10 2.3 40 2.13 36.87 3.63
Q11 3.5 43.5 4.80 41.67 1.83
Q12 3.9 47.4 10.81 52.48 -5.08
Q13 9.7 57.1 3.29 55.77 1.33
Q14 2.9 60 5.68 61.45 -1.45
Q15 3.3 63.3

switch passes PS4 again

Q4 difference is missing a decimal point.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Not unless we get more support over the next two to three years and a few limited edition models so the collectors repurchase the console (i.e. 3DS was master of this, I think I have about 30 of the limited edition ones, but 1 switch so far).

We saw what happen with Wii, was full steam ahead then it halted straight away. That was due to the lack of quality games to keep that momentum flowing.



 

 

Cobretti2 said:
Not unless we get more support over the next two to three years and a few limited edition models so the collectors repurchase the console (i.e. 3DS was master of this, I think I have about 30 of the limited edition ones, but 1 switch so far).

We saw what happen with Wii, was full steam ahead then it halted straight away. That was due to the lack of quality games to keep that momentum flowing.

It was also due to the quick rise of HD TV in society and the Wii vs X360/PS3 comparisons were harsh bc of that. Casual players quickly let it die and gamers didn't like the remote controls. 

Here this is a totally different situation. Switch is peaking in it's fourth year, it won't free fall next year or the other. Probably going to have a steady decline. They have so many options to keep the sales from sinking.