Holiday 2022 is not even remotely realistic. That would be a GBA type scenario where they rushed out a new system and tried to treat it as a different market than the GBA because they were afraid by how much more advanced the PSP was than the GBA. There is no equivalent scenario to that for the Switch. Unless Sony suddenly announces that the PS5 also comes in a portable version haha, then no, holiday 2022 is a year early from even an early launch of Switch 2. A 2024 launch should be about right.
By 2024 the industry has already been moved on to new tech. We have already 2 gens showing us this.
Nintendo is comfortable enough by now having a ton of support, releasing third party games and ports between their own first party tittles, avoinding as possible the droughts. Even Nintendo has mentioned, proudly, the amount of games that the Switch is gathering.
They are not after the same tech race between MS and Sony, but after the games that the industry is producing, and having modern tech that allows those developers to port their titles.
A successor for the Switch will not be coming out that soon (if it was a failure maybe). Switch will be the main hardware line until at least March 2024.
By holiday 2022 it would have an almost-6 years life span. DS lasted from holiday 2004 to February 2011 (6 years+3 months) and its Nintendo's most succesful hardware ever.
Also, nobody is saying that the console is going to be discointinued or that it wouldn't get anymore games. I would like to also read why do you believe that Nintendo is going to hold on the Switch until March 2024, and I mean honestly. Maybe I'm missing something.
I don't know what your point of saying by 2024 new tech will have arrived, it seems you are agreeing with me. Yes new tech will arrive in 2024: Switch 2. Your comment doesn't even seem to be an answer to mine, I'm not even sure what you're talking about in the first part. Yes new tech will be here in 2024, yes Nintendo has plenty of support, yes Nintendo is not in an direct arms race with MS/Sony. Agreed on all accounts, nothing about that suggests that Nintendo will cut off the Switch super early.
As to your second part commenting to scottslater, yes you are definitely missing something. The something that you are missing is that the Switch is the hottest thing in the gaming industry for the past 10+ years. It is GAINING momentum in year 4 and hasn't even had a price cut, and is likely to have another version (premium version?) come out at some point, and you suggest it will be replaced before it has even been on the market for 6 years. It is in the middle of its lifecycle and you suggest Nintendo will be replacing it in less than 2.5 years! That makes no sense. Assuming this is the Switch's peak year, it could still sell 20 million next year...and you think it should be replaced the year after it is likely to sell around 20 million (a number that PS4 never even hit and it was kept on the market for 7 years, not under 6). A holiday 2022 replacement means Nintendo decided they needed to cut the Switch's lifespan early because it didn't do that well, obviously we know reality is the opposite of that assessment. Nothing about how the Switch has done suggests there is any reason to cut it off early, rather the opposite, which is why a 2024 Switch 2 launch is likely.