Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

TheBlackNaruto said:
Wyrdness said:

Gameboy went 10 years until the GBC model came out last time they had a monopoly on one side of the market for one and that allows breathing room in when deciding when to bring out a successor, it's not something they haven't done before either as NES was on the market for 8 years until the SNES.

Oh I remember it clearly. But that was well over 20 years ago and has not happened since then. And the industry then was TOTALLY different from now.

You either didn't read the reply or did not notice the major factor pointed out the is one thing that has returned from back then that allowed them to do that and that is Nintendo has a monopoly again on one side of the market, they can go 8 years with out a successor for the Switch because one of the markets is only catered to by them a different industry still yields to this one factor.



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What if Nintendo view the Switch as an ecosystem and they never launch Switch 2.

We are in a World where generations are meaningless, what the future holds in terms of what Nintendo does is unknown. Investors have been pushing them towards mobile for years and they haven't really invested all that much there. So what they do sometimes is opposite of what the market expects them to do.

In terms of the technology to deliver high-end AAA games on a hybrid console while being profitable, we are a few years away. So for now I'd expect Slight upgrades to hardware but not enough to warrant them retiring the Switch. So it could very well be that in 2025 Nintendo still is selling it's games on the Switch even though OG Switches might not support the latest games. Tablets like these will eventually break, and you would need to buy a replacement. So they could indefinitely slowly upgrade the core-parts in the Switch without ever dropping the price or changing the name. Like I mentioned a while ago, Tablet Technology isn't at this stage but Complimentary Computing devices or the aptly named ProDock might be the thing they use to both support AAA games on the console or stream to the tablet.

We shall see but I don't think it would be that difficult to outsell the PS4, the DS will be the real hurdle for the Switch.



It seems pretty likely the Switch oversells the PS4. Even though a PS4 price cut these holidays could do wonders, the Switch has the momentum, not to mention potential future iterations that could boost up its numbers.



Wyrdness said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Oh I remember it clearly. But that was well over 20 years ago and has not happened since then. And the industry then was TOTALLY different from now.

You either didn't read the reply or did not notice the major factor pointed out the is one thing that has returned from back then that allowed them to do that and that is Nintendo has a monopoly again on one side of the market, they can go 8 years with out a successor for the Switch because one of the markets is only catered to by them a different industry still yields to this one factor.

I read that and forgot to even mention it lol. But yes they are the only ones in that market not thanks to their hybrid nature. But in today's industry.....I just can't see them waiting that long to announce a new console and the sales remain healthy. It just doesn't seem like something they would do with the way technology is moving.



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Pavolink said:
Slownenberg said:

Holiday 2022 is not even remotely realistic. That would be a GBA type scenario where they rushed out a new system and tried to treat it as a different market than the GBA because they were afraid by how much more advanced the PSP was than the GBA. There is no equivalent scenario to that for the Switch. Unless Sony suddenly announces that the PS5 also comes in a portable version haha, then no, holiday 2022 is a year early from even an early launch of Switch 2. A 2024 launch should be about right.

By 2024 the industry has already been moved on to new tech. We have already 2 gens showing us this.

Nintendo is comfortable enough by now having a ton of support, releasing third party games and ports between their own first party tittles, avoinding as possible the droughts. Even Nintendo has mentioned, proudly, the amount of games that the Switch is gathering.

They are not after the same tech race between MS and Sony, but after the games that the industry is producing, and having modern tech that allows those developers to port their titles.

scottslater said:

A successor for the Switch will not be coming out that soon (if it was a failure maybe).  Switch will be the main hardware line until at least March 2024.

By holiday 2022 it would have an almost-6 years life span. DS lasted from holiday 2004 to February 2011 (6 years+3 months) and its Nintendo's most succesful hardware ever.

Also, nobody is saying that the console is going to be discointinued or that it wouldn't get anymore games. I would like to also read why do you believe that Nintendo is going to hold on the Switch until March 2024, and I mean honestly. Maybe I'm missing something.

I don't know what your point of saying by 2024 new tech will have arrived, it seems you are agreeing with me. Yes new tech will arrive in 2024: Switch 2. Your comment doesn't even seem to be an answer to mine, I'm not even sure what you're talking about in the first part. Yes new tech will be here in 2024, yes Nintendo has plenty of support, yes Nintendo is not in an direct arms race with MS/Sony. Agreed on all accounts, nothing about that suggests that Nintendo will cut off the Switch super early.

As to your second part commenting to scottslater, yes you are definitely missing something. The something that you are missing is that the Switch is the hottest thing in the gaming industry for the past 10+ years. It is GAINING momentum in year 4 and hasn't even had a price cut, and is likely to have another version (premium version?) come out at some point, and you suggest it will be replaced before it has even been on the market for 6 years. It is in the middle of its lifecycle and you suggest Nintendo will be replacing it in less than 2.5 years! That makes no sense. Assuming this is the Switch's peak year, it could still sell 20 million next year...and you think it should be replaced the year after it is likely to sell around 20 million (a number that PS4 never even hit and it was kept on the market for 7 years, not under 6). A holiday 2022 replacement means Nintendo decided they needed to cut the Switch's lifespan early because it didn't do that well, obviously we know reality is the opposite of that assessment. Nothing about how the Switch has done suggests there is any reason to cut it off early, rather the opposite, which is why a 2024 Switch 2 launch is likely.



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noshten said:
What if Nintendo view the Switch as an ecosystem and they never launch Switch 2.

We are in a World where generations are meaningless, what the future holds in terms of what Nintendo does is unknown. Investors have been pushing them towards mobile for years and they haven't really invested all that much there. So what they do sometimes is opposite of what the market expects them to do.

In terms of the technology to deliver high-end AAA games on a hybrid console while being profitable, we are a few years away. So for now I'd expect Slight upgrades to hardware but not enough to warrant them retiring the Switch. So it could very well be that in 2025 Nintendo still is selling it's games on the Switch even though OG Switches might not support the latest games. Tablets like these will eventually break, and you would need to buy a replacement. So they could indefinitely slowly upgrade the core-parts in the Switch without ever dropping the price or changing the name. Like I mentioned a while ago, Tablet Technology isn't at this stage but Complimentary Computing devices or the aptly named ProDock might be the thing they use to both support AAA games on the console or stream to the tablet.

We shall see but I don't think it would be that difficult to outsell the PS4, the DS will be the real hurdle for the Switch.

You just said generations are meaningless when a new generation of systems is literally coming out in 4 months...ultimate facepalm



TheBlackNaruto said:
Eagle367 said:
Yes switch w overtake PS4 but in the end, I'm not sure whether PS4 will again reclaim the throne or not. And people are seriously underestimating the switch and some are still going in about some hypothetical cliff. Switch will for sure sell between 120-130mil and I do believe the switch successor is gonna be in spring 2024 at the earliest.

So you are saying Nintendo will literally go 8 years without a new console. The Switch is what in its 4th year or going into it right now right? Ad you are saying 2024 at the EARLIEST like you think the system will com even later?

Why do you think they will wait so long this time around? I am just curious.

Well for one the system keeps selling like crazy. Then Ninty saying it's a family and not one console do more revisions to come.  And them literally saying it's gonna be longer than most cycles again and again. Plus Ninty is it's own market right now. It's not competing with any other console. Mark my words even.



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You just said generations are meaningless when a new generation of systems is literally coming out in 4 months...ultimate facepalm

Its meaningless to consumers, we already went through a number of years where Switch saw consistent growth, everywhere outside of Japan & Asia this growth didn't impact Playstation or Xbox sales.

This basically means that Nintendo was able to differentiate itself from the twins and was bought alongside them or by people who aren't even into gaming. From a consumer perspective, the new generation of systems isn't competing with the Switch, thus talking about Switch 2 needing to release in order to compete with them is nonsensical. 



no



We won't know until 2 more years tbh. We need to see how fast Sony will drop the PS4 and what Nintendo is going to do with the Switch.

They said they are looking to make it live longer, then it means late price cut, new models, special editions etc.
They could try to hold the sales next year with a price cut, a new model and start doing more bundles and big titles.