I think anything before holiday 2023 replacement is too early, and anything later than holiday 2024 is too late. Spring 2024 is the sweet spot, or if Switch sales are slowing drastically in 2023 then a holiday 2023 release would be fine too.
Switch still has loads of first party games people are waiting on, it hasn't even cut its price a single time yet, or even offered much in the way of holiday discounts, it has yet to price their first party games below full price, and almost undoubtedly it'll have a premium version of the system come out at some point, likely when they drop the price. Furthermore there is no need to drop the price right now because the games are selling like crazy and Nintendo can't even make enough systems to meet demand. The system is still gaining momentum now in its fourth year without taking any measures to spur sales other than the Switch Lite. Nintendo is holding all the cards right now. All they need to do is keep the great games coming and slowly pull those levers (hardware price drops, software price drops, new hardware version) after Switch sales peak, and this thing should keep going strong for several more years.
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