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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

scottslater said:

One reason the NS will continue to sell well:

Look at the game lineup it already has after 3 years:


Best in class Open World - BotW
Best in class Platforming - Mario Odyssey
Best in class Racing - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Best in class Fighting - Smash Bros
Biggest Brand in the world - Pokemon
Best game to play in a pandemic - Animal Crossing
Best game to keep in shape during a pandemic - Ring Fit Adventure
Best party games, best couch co-op gaming, and on and on...


Anyone thinking that this pandemic hasn't changed what people seek in video games for at least the next few years (time killers, fitness, etc) is really going to be surprised when the Switch has 3 straight years of 20+ million units sold and potentially 4. Let's also not forget that the real possibility of an economic depression worldwide will have many looking for the cheapest versions of entertainment possible and the Switch will handily win that between a cheaper console and a great lineup of games to dive into.

If Nintendo can keep production up on hardware and Ring Fit Adventure prepare to see another huge seller for them.

Where did you get the best from for all those games? Or are those just your opinions? And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world? Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games? Also the Switch isn't the cheapest version of entertainment available. Look I am all for the Switch continuing to sell well but lets not put personal bias as if they are facts when discussing it.

OT:

I think it will fall JUST short but will easily cross 100 million for sure. So I say around 110-115 million in sales. Now if they don't have some type of big Switch 2 plans then this could absolutely all change so time will tell. 

Side note I am excited to see what they do with their next console! Because after going with the Switch I can't see them going to back to 2 separate Home and Handheld devices.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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Switch is going to sell a lot longer than it’s home console brethren because of its hybrid console nature. I think it’s going to surprise many people where it ends up.

On top of that, Nintendo, in this generation, seems a lot more lucid than they were in past generations. They were intelligent enough to stretch the 3DS, even though just a few years earlier they were shooting two golden geese (the DS and the Wii) because they wanted their younger geese to have the pen to themselves. I think that even if a Switch 2 comes out Nintendo will still give tons of support to the Switch 1.

IMO, Switch 2 launches with a Switch 2 TV and a Switch 2  hybrid console, while phasing out the Switch 1 hybrid and maintaining Switch 1 Lite in the handheld field. Most software on Switch 2 won’t even need the Switch 1: AAA dominance in the industry is dead, the bulk of gaming sales comes from smaller studios.

I could be wrong, but I think Nintendo got it right with the Switch and their next generation should be building on the Switch, creating a new form factor while maintaining the hybrid. Also, I want to see Nintendo jump back into the fitness industry full steam. No one wants to go to the gym anymore, and it’s way more fun to exercise with video games than just 

Last edited by Jumpin - on 14 July 2020

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
Switch is going to sell a lot longer than it’s home console brethren because of its hybrid console nature. I think it’s going to surprise many people where it ends up.

I am a 110-115 million person with the Switch. But if the successor to the Switch is not named in the next year or so then yeah it definitely has the potential to seel more than my prediction due to exactly what you said the hybrid nature. So I am excited to see what happens in the next couple of years But regardless of if it passes the PS4 or not the Switch will still have amazing sales. And maybe only be behind the DS, PS2 and PS4(only if it doesn't pass it).



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto said:
scottslater said:

One reason the NS will continue to sell well:

Look at the game lineup it already has after 3 years:


Best in class Open World - BotW
Best in class Platforming - Mario Odyssey
Best in class Racing - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Best in class Fighting - Smash Bros
Biggest Brand in the world - Pokemon
Best game to play in a pandemic - Animal Crossing
Best game to keep in shape during a pandemic - Ring Fit Adventure
Best party games, best couch co-op gaming, and on and on...


Anyone thinking that this pandemic hasn't changed what people seek in video games for at least the next few years (time killers, fitness, etc) is really going to be surprised when the Switch has 3 straight years of 20+ million units sold and potentially 4. Let's also not forget that the real possibility of an economic depression worldwide will have many looking for the cheapest versions of entertainment possible and the Switch will handily win that between a cheaper console and a great lineup of games to dive into.

If Nintendo can keep production up on hardware and Ring Fit Adventure prepare to see another huge seller for them.

Where did you get the best from for all those games? Or are those just your opinions? And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world? Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games? Also the Switch isn't the cheapest version of entertainment available. Look I am all for the Switch continuing to sell well but lets not put personal bias as if they are facts when discussing it.

'Where did you get the best from for all those games?'

Do you need me to direct you to some aggregate sites?

  • Breath of the Wild broke every possible record for perfect review scores.
  • There's not even a close second to Mario Odyssey in platforming.
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe could be classed for just kart racers, but overall it'd still be near the top. Haven't been many great racers this gen.
  • Outside of solid revivals for Killer Instinct and Samurai Shodown, fighting games have stagnated this gen, if not trended downward, so it's an easy win for Smash Ultimate.

'And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world?'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises

'Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games?'

Maybe when Wii Fit sold a combined 40m+ copies?

These games may not be to your tastes, but it's not personal bias to state commonly held opinions by the overall gaming public. This isn't a broad 'Nintendo makes better games' statement, this is just how the current generation shaped up.



hunter_alien said:

With the sole exception of the Wii and DS no modern Nintendo system was helped late in the lifecycle by a price cut, and let's face it, those are the exceptions by every metric. Nintendo knows this hence they usually maintain the price higher and release more entry-level models down the line. For the GC and 3DS the early price cuts that did help were survival price cut. It was either that or game over for the systems. Those are facts and there is plenty of data that proves this.

By the time the Switch gets any meaningful price cut I doubt that anyone who wanted one won't already have one. The price was never the issue with the Switch so I doubt that a price cut will do more than push the very price-conscious, late-gen adopters to pull the trigger, but those won't make the system sell another 60 million.

On the other hand, by starting at a usually higher pricepoint, MS and Sony always managed to generate a bit more hype with price cuts. Instantly the system that was out of reach at 400 or even 600 bucks, is now 100 dollars cheaper, and again, the 7th generation was a perfect example for this frontline.

All in all, by the time the Switch will rely on a price cut to drive sales, will be the point where Nintendo will feel that there is not a strong-enough release schedule to push the system on its own, hence it won't really affect the final outcome all that much. Now, if instantly the Switch Lite would be available for 100$ that could change the situation, but why would Nintendo sacrifice their profit margin with a move like that? Somebody who can only afford a Switch at 100$ will most definitely not be a huge software purchaser, so yeah, we can count out a scenario like this in the near future.

...And the Gamecube which saw a big increase in sales when its price was dropped to 99$. The Wii U never got a price cut. Again, where is the data to back this claim up? You can't just cherry-pick a few examples and forget about the other examples. How many "modern Nintendo systems" are there exactly? Wii, DS, 3DS, Wii U and Switch? If so, three of those systems were helped by price cuts, one never got a price cut (Wii U) and one is yet to be determined. Where is the data to back this claim up? When did a late price cut have significantly bigger effects on a Sony or Microsoft system? 

The rest is anecdotal evidence. If you think there are no people who would buy a system at 100$ but not at 200$ in which way is this different from the difference between 200$ and 400$? The PS3 still struggled after its price was dropped to 500$ and only picked up in pace once the price went down a lot - which goes against what you are saying, it does not prove your point. It shows that Sony's consoles are not more price sensitive than Nintendo's systems.

You also say a price cut to the 300$ Switch won't have any effects, but a price cut on the 250$ 3DS basically saved the system.

There is no data to show that Nintendo systems react any differently to price cuts compared to Sony's and Microsoft's systems. 



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JRPGfan said:

With the exception of the PS3, playstations usually have long legs... ei they keep selling at steady paces for along time, even after next gen starts.
With Nintendo often when a new gen starts, its just a abrubt halting, ei sales drop more drastically (when a new gen starts).

Yes Switch 2 is probably 2+ years away.

But that is not caused by these system being Nintendo products. Nintendo has always had two consoles on the market and during a transition period they had to support two old consoles and two new ones when crunch time came. With the Switch Nintendo only has one console on the market, so there is no need to stop supporting the system prematurely. We can't just look at a few examples and say "Nintendo consoles always X" and "Sony consoles always Y". It's the processes behind these products that determine their lifecycles, not the company name on the box. 



Shaunodon said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Where did you get the best from for all those games? Or are those just your opinions? And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world? Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games? Also the Switch isn't the cheapest version of entertainment available. Look I am all for the Switch continuing to sell well but lets not put personal bias as if they are facts when discussing it.

'Where did you get the best from for all those games?'

Do you need me to direct you to some aggregate sites?

  • Breath of the Wild broke every possible record for perfect review scores.
  • There's not even a close second to Mario Odyssey in platforming.
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe could be classed for just kart racers, but overall it'd still be near the top. Haven't been many great racers this gen.
  • Outside of solid revivals for Killer Instinct and Samurai Shodown, fighting games have stagnated this gen, if not trended downward, so it's an easy win for Smash Ultimate.

'And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world?'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises

'Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games?'

Maybe when Wii Fit sold a combined 40m+ copies?

These games may not be to your tastes, but it's not personal bias to state commonly held opinions by the overall gaming public. This isn't a broad 'Nintendo makes better games' statement, this is just how the current generation shaped up.

Let's start with the easiest one first....your link DOES NOT indicate that Pokemon is the biggest BRAND in the world at all. Remember he said BRAND.

2nd easiest Wii Fit selling 40 million DOES NOT equate to people SEEKING video games for fitness. Why would it selling that much make you think that? And if people HAD been seeking fitness in video games then where is the continuous data to support that? Not one or two games selling a butt load of copies. Come on now.

I would never argue BOTW as the best open world game or even one of if not THE BEST game in the last decade. I agree with Mario definitely the best platformer as well.

You didn't even agree with Mario Kart being the best racer so no need to debate that.

Fighting games is definitely subjective here. Especially when looking at the biggest games for the FGC.

Then you didn't even acknowledge the other stuff so he said lol. So you must not have even agreed with all that stuff.

Lastly I am an absolute HUGE Pokemon fan along with BOTW and Mario O. So saying they are not my taste is pointless. So yes a lot of what he said was absolutely personal bias. Not fact.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Louie said:
hunter_alien said:

With the sole exception of the Wii and DS no modern Nintendo system was helped late in the lifecycle by a price cut, and let's face it, those are the exceptions by every metric. Nintendo knows this hence they usually maintain the price higher and release more entry-level models down the line. For the GC and 3DS the early price cuts that did help were survival price cut. It was either that or game over for the systems. Those are facts and there is plenty of data that proves this.

By the time the Switch gets any meaningful price cut I doubt that anyone who wanted one won't already have one. The price was never the issue with the Switch so I doubt that a price cut will do more than push the very price-conscious, late-gen adopters to pull the trigger, but those won't make the system sell another 60 million.

On the other hand, by starting at a usually higher pricepoint, MS and Sony always managed to generate a bit more hype with price cuts. Instantly the system that was out of reach at 400 or even 600 bucks, is now 100 dollars cheaper, and again, the 7th generation was a perfect example for this frontline.

All in all, by the time the Switch will rely on a price cut to drive sales, will be the point where Nintendo will feel that there is not a strong-enough release schedule to push the system on its own, hence it won't really affect the final outcome all that much. Now, if instantly the Switch Lite would be available for 100$ that could change the situation, but why would Nintendo sacrifice their profit margin with a move like that? Somebody who can only afford a Switch at 100$ will most definitely not be a huge software purchaser, so yeah, we can count out a scenario like this in the near future.

...And the Gamecube which saw a big increase in sales when its price was dropped to 99$. The Wii U never got a price cut. Again, where is the data to back this claim up? You can't just cherry-pick a few examples and forget about the other examples. How many "modern Nintendo systems" are there exactly? Wii, DS, 3DS, Wii U and Switch? If so, three of those systems were helped by price cuts, one never got a price cut (Wii U) and one is yet to be determined. Where is the data to back this claim up? When did a late price cut have significantly bigger effects on a Sony or Microsoft system? 

The rest is anecdotal evidence. If you think there are no people who would buy a system at 100$ but not at 200$ in which way is this different from the difference between 200$ and 400$? The PS3 still struggled after its price was dropped to 500$ and only picked up in pace once the price went down a lot - which goes against what you are saying, it does not prove your point. It shows that Sony's consoles are not more price sensitive than Nintendo's systems.

You also say a price cut to the 300$ Switch won't have any effects, but a price cut on the 250$ 3DS basically saved the system.

There is no data to show that Nintendo systems react any differently to price cuts compared to Sony's and Microsoft's systems. 

The 3DS lost 1/3 of its price less than a year on the market. We are 3 and a half years into the Switch lifecycle and we still didn't get a price cut. Modern Nintendo systems, I mean everything that became generationalized, from the N64 to this day. The GC did get a price cut and it barely helped. It went from selling abysmally low numbers to just very bad numbers. It did in a generation what the Switch will do in a year. That price cut probably pushed less unit than what a modern system does in one or two quarters so yeah, it did not help. 

Nintendo always had a different strategy with system pricing compared with MS/Sony, and the Switch is the prime example for this strategy. The N64, GC, GB, GBA, DS, 3DS all had comparably small bumps in sales when price cuts came along. Redesigns and games are the ones that push systems. Check out the hardware charts right on this site for this. Don't believe me, I don't care, just watch how this generation will unfold. I will laugh my ass off when people will try to rationalize why the Switch never passed the PS4, and say to the ones that got it right that hindsight is 20/20. 



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

TheBlackNaruto said:
scottslater said:

One reason the NS will continue to sell well:

Look at the game lineup it already has after 3 years:


Best in class Open World - BotW
Best in class Platforming - Mario Odyssey
Best in class Racing - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Best in class Fighting - Smash Bros
Biggest Brand in the world - Pokemon
Best game to play in a pandemic - Animal Crossing
Best game to keep in shape during a pandemic - Ring Fit Adventure
Best party games, best couch co-op gaming, and on and on...


Anyone thinking that this pandemic hasn't changed what people seek in video games for at least the next few years (time killers, fitness, etc) is really going to be surprised when the Switch has 3 straight years of 20+ million units sold and potentially 4. Let's also not forget that the real possibility of an economic depression worldwide will have many looking for the cheapest versions of entertainment possible and the Switch will handily win that between a cheaper console and a great lineup of games to dive into.

If Nintendo can keep production up on hardware and Ring Fit Adventure prepare to see another huge seller for them.

Where did you get the best from for all those games? Or are those just your opinions? And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world? Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games? Also the Switch isn't the cheapest version of entertainment available. Look I am all for the Switch continuing to sell well but lets not put personal bias as if they are facts when discussing it.

OT:

I think it will fall JUST short but will easily cross 100 million for sure. So I say around 110-115 million in sales. Now if they don't have some type of big Switch 2 plans then this could absolutely all change so time will tell. 

Side note I am excited to see what they do with their next console! Because after going with the Switch I can't see them going to back to 2 separate Home and Handheld devices.

Best in class based on sales and ratings.  Just to be clear by what I mean, I don't mean it is the best game period, but among the best that you can play (for example RDR2 and The Witcher 3 are Best in class Open World games as well).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises

https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/lifestyle/the-top-50-highest-grossing-video-game-franchises/

People started seeking alternative forms of fitness when the pandemic started... where have you been?  It's why Ring Fit Adventure is among the best selling games right now when stock is available and the secondary market for it is strong.

I didn't say the Switch was the cheapest form of entertainment, I said cheapest version as in it will be cheaper to buy a Switch and a couple games than it will be to even buy just a system of the new generation...

EDIT: To be clear, I meant biggest brand for the industry we are talking about (media/entertainment), didn't think I needed to define it since it should have been clear what the topic was.

Last edited by scottslater - on 14 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

hunter_alien said:
Louie said:

The 3DS lost 1/3 of its price less than a year on the market. We are 3 and a half years into the Switch lifecycle and we still didn't get a price cut. Modern Nintendo systems, I mean everything that became generationalized, from the N64 to this day. The GC did get a price cut and it barely helped. It went from selling abysmally low numbers to just very bad numbers. It did in a generation what the Switch will do in a year. That price cut probably pushed less unit than what a modern system does in one or two quarters so yeah, it did not help. 

Nintendo always had a different strategy with system pricing compared with MS/Sony, and the Switch is the prime example for this strategy. The N64, GC, GB, GBA, DS, 3DS all had comparably small bumps in sales when price cuts came along. Redesigns and games are the ones that push systems. Check out the hardware charts right on this site for this. Don't believe me, I don't care, just watch how this generation will unfold. I will laugh my ass off when people will try to rationalize why the Switch never passed the PS4, and say to the ones that got it right that hindsight is 20/20. 

Again, what did you expect? For the Gamecube to suddenly sell 15m units per year because of a price drop? Do you think a price cut would have propelled the Vita to decent sales? Going from "abysmally low" to "very bad" is exactly what would happen with a less-successful Sony or Microsoft system.

Again, you just listed the 3DS as an example right after agreeing its sales were helped tremendously by a price cut. When the PS3's price was dropped from 400$ to 300$ that was a 25% price cut, which is not much smaller than the 3DS price cut was! If the PS4 will be helped tremendously by a price cut from 300$ to 200$... that's also a 1/3 reduction in price, again proving my point: Nintendo system react just the same to a price cut as any other system. And just for the record: I do not think Nintendo should drop prices, but try to increase the value of their product.

Yeah I guess you will laugh just like the people in 2017, 2018 and 2019 who predicted Switch sales have peaked and will only go down from now on.