Of course it will. PS4's peak year was at 20 million unit solds in Year 4, Switch managed to sell the same amount in Year 3 and will dasily exceed it in Year 4 and will sell another 20 million units in Year 5.

The PS4 reached 100 million by the end of its 6th year if I am correct, the Switch will probably hit that mark 6 or 9 months ahead.

I expect sales to be around 74 million by the end of 2020, 94 million by the end of 2021, 110 million by 2022, 122 million by 2023, 131 million by 2024, 140 million by 2025, 146 million by 2026.

PS4 / NSW 

FY1 7.50mil / 2.74mil
FY2 14.80mil / 15.05mil
FY3 17.70mil / 16.95mil
FY4 20.00mil / 21.03mil

Tot: 60mil vs 55.77mil (Ps4 had an extra 4months)

FY5 19.00mil / 
FY6 17.80mil /
FY7 13.60mil

Tot: 110mil

Lifetime: ?125mil?

And NSW is going to be very high this FY and probably next, but I don’t get why people don’t see it and if they do then I don’t understand why they think sales will fall off a cliff?

Did you miss the point I was makeing?
Im claiming nintendo consoles always have a great first half of their life cycle.

Your trying to prove the Switch will have a better 2nd half, by useing the 1st half of the PS4 vs the Switch?

But ignoreing the fact that I'm talking about the 2nd half.

Where is the logic in that?

Im not saying its gonna drop off a cliff. So dont start with that please, im not one of those whos climed it will.
I'm saying usually, thats how things go with nintendo, they slow down in the 2nd half of their life cycles (3-4years into it, sales start to slow).
Is that not actually true?

I just dont think it will last long enough.
I think in 2022 or 2023, it is replaced with a Switch 2.

At which point, it wont catch up to the PS4.

Yes switch w overtake PS4 but in the end, I'm not sure whether PS4 will again reclaim the throne or not. And people are seriously underestimating the switch and some are still going in about some hypothetical cliff. Switch will for sure sell between 120-130mil and I do believe the switch successor is gonna be in spring 2024 at the earliest.

Where is the logic believing the Switch will suddenly stop selling like hotcakes despite all the trends showing otherwise ?

And no need to compare it to the Wii cause it has nothing to do with the Wii. Nor the N64, the GC, the SNES, the Wii U nor the NES. In fact it's pretty unique in its genre, and no real pattern can be applied, unlike Sony consoles which usually follows the same path.

Well my logic would be past nintendo consoles have done so.
But if your saying "thats not logical" because its hybrid...   I just dont think it goes that high.

The Nintendo DS is the only console nintendo has had thats gone that high.
It started out at 149$, and dropped down to like 99$ at one point right?

The switch is more epensive, I'm not convinced it can do a DS in terms of sales.

Part of the reason, DS and to some degree 3DS did so well.... was the lower prices, and people collecting multiple DS/3DS models.
So out of the 150m/75m sales, a good degree of those, are people owning 2-5 models. Plus parents buying each of their kids their own unit.

Also:
Switch is more a "shared" console, because you can hook it up to a tv, and kids can both play, hell they can even share the joy-cons (1 for each).
Stuff like that probably does have a minimal impact on sales (less reason to buy multiple units in a household).

Maybe if theres a newer improved switch model, that goes for cheaper, that makes current switch owners want to get a newer model?

You mean the year where switch is 4mil ahead of last year and production is already back to normal plus many people are predicting 23mil at the lowest end with some even saying that if Ninty can produce it, then 30mil is possible and the year where switch is reaching highs not seen since the DS and Wii years? In what world does switch not even sell 100mil after such a year?

I'll also add that we really don't know the sales potential of Switch next year. It's become too easy to assume we're in peak year, and somehow sales will just sharply drop off. Yet all indications are that Nintendo have been stockpiling quite a few games that could all possibly hit next year, in a deliberate effort to spur on a second half unlike previous systems. Then you include some games that could've been meant for this year getting pushed into next year, possibly a new model, plus the next-gen twins going through possible year one dry spells with much more expensive systems, and the current cheaper ones already phased out...

It's not unreasonable to start thinking next year Switch should still be close to the current sales margin, possibly hitting 100M units by the end of it's FY 6 (it launched shortly before end of FY 1). With a much slower decline YoY compared to previous systems.

tbone already made a great thread about this for people that haven't checked it out.

Bottom line: there's no brakes on this train.

The are people who buy Switch Lites for their kids or themselves so they don't have to share it's one reason the Lite did so well when Pokemon and AC arrived so where are you getting this notion that no household will have more than one from?

Being more expensive doesn't really stop any chance of it happening Switch is going to catch and possibly over take the 3DS by the end of this year, less than 4 full years, with out a price cut and with a higher price point and the latter has been on the market for 9 years I can't remember any platform get this far while doing this well with out a price cut and it's because it's not had one that sales potential has a potential to increase or retain momentum in the second half of its life because it's still an option. It being on the market for another possible 5 years like the 3DS did puts the LT sales range on the higher end, like it was pointed out to someone earlier it may very well be at around 90m by the end of September 2021 at the current pace and Nintendo averages 9-10m in the holiday period.

This means it's effectively going into 2022 with 100m being a very easy barrier to cross the NS could have a few years of selling only 10m after 2021 it'll still pass GB numbers.

One reason the NS will continue to sell well:

Look at the game lineup it already has after 3 years:

Best in class Open World - BotW
Best in class Platforming - Mario Odyssey
Best in class Racing - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Best in class Fighting - Smash Bros
Biggest Brand in the world - Pokemon
Best game to play in a pandemic - Animal Crossing
Best game to keep in shape during a pandemic - Ring Fit Adventure
Best party games, best couch co-op gaming, and on and on...

Anyone thinking that this pandemic hasn't changed what people seek in video games for at least the next few years (time killers, fitness, etc) is really going to be surprised when the Switch has 3 straight years of 20+ million units sold and potentially 4. Let's also not forget that the real possibility of an economic depression worldwide will have many looking for the cheapest versions of entertainment possible and the Switch will handily win that between a cheaper console and a great lineup of games to dive into.

If Nintendo can keep production up on hardware and Ring Fit Adventure prepare to see another huge seller for them.