Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

noshten said:

You just said generations are meaningless when a new generation of systems is literally coming out in 4 months...ultimate facepalm

Its meaningless to consumers, we already went through a number of years where Switch saw consistent growth, everywhere outside of Japan & Asia this growth didn't impact Playstation or Xbox sales.

This basically means that Nintendo was able to differentiate itself from the twins and was bought alongside them or by people who aren't even into gaming. From a consumer perspective, the new generation of systems isn't competing with the Switch, thus talking about Switch 2 needing to release in order to compete with them is nonsensical. 

Ok I understand what you are saying now. While I would certainly disagree that generations are meaningless to consumers, if that were try there would be no excitement for the next gen of xbox and playstation, I do agree that Switch isn't really directly competing with them - but that is very different than saying generations don't matter to consumers. Switch is a hybrid that has an entire library of games that will never come to the other systems, while the other two are very similar that get very similar type games. That has nothing to do with generations, but I mean I get what your intent was.



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I think anything before holiday 2023 replacement is too early, and anything later than holiday 2024 is too late. Spring 2024 is the sweet spot, or if Switch sales are slowing drastically in 2023 then a holiday 2023 release would be fine too.

Switch still has loads of first party games people are waiting on, it hasn't even cut its price a single time yet, or even offered much in the way of holiday discounts, it has yet to price their first party games below full price, and almost undoubtedly it'll have a premium version of the system come out at some point, likely when they drop the price. Furthermore there is no need to drop the price right now because the games are selling like crazy and Nintendo can't even make enough systems to meet demand. The system is still gaining momentum now in its fourth year without taking any measures to spur sales other than the Switch Lite. Nintendo is holding all the cards right now. All they need to do is keep the great games coming and slowly pull those levers (hardware price drops, software price drops, new hardware version) after Switch sales peak, and this thing should keep going strong for several more years.



noshten said:
What if Nintendo view the Switch as an ecosystem and they never launch Switch 2.

We are in a World where generations are meaningless, what the future holds in terms of what Nintendo does is unknown. Investors have been pushing them towards mobile for years and they haven't really invested all that much there. So what they do sometimes is opposite of what the market expects them to do.

In terms of the technology to deliver high-end AAA games on a hybrid console while being profitable, we are a few years away. So for now I'd expect Slight upgrades to hardware but not enough to warrant them retiring the Switch. So it could very well be that in 2025 Nintendo still is selling it's games on the Switch even though OG Switches might not support the latest games. Tablets like these will eventually break, and you would need to buy a replacement. So they could indefinitely slowly upgrade the core-parts in the Switch without ever dropping the price or changing the name. Like I mentioned a while ago, Tablet Technology isn't at this stage but Complimentary Computing devices or the aptly named ProDock might be the thing they use to both support AAA games on the console or stream to the tablet.

We shall see but I don't think it would be that difficult to outsell the PS4, the DS will be the real hurdle for the Switch.

Generations is only meaningless if you live in a Nintendo World. 

PS3 > PS4/Pro > PS5

X360 > X1/X1X > XSX

The generations are very clear and the upcoming generation is going to be a very nice upgrade in terms of power and graphics. Very much looking forward to it. 

Nintendo was never able to keep up in the hardware department, this is why the generations seems deluge to people who only follows Nintendo. 



Drakrami said:
noshten said:
What if Nintendo view the Switch as an ecosystem and they never launch Switch 2.

We are in a World where generations are meaningless, what the future holds in terms of what Nintendo does is unknown. Investors have been pushing them towards mobile for years and they haven't really invested all that much there. So what they do sometimes is opposite of what the market expects them to do.

In terms of the technology to deliver high-end AAA games on a hybrid console while being profitable, we are a few years away. So for now I'd expect Slight upgrades to hardware but not enough to warrant them retiring the Switch. So it could very well be that in 2025 Nintendo still is selling it's games on the Switch even though OG Switches might not support the latest games. Tablets like these will eventually break, and you would need to buy a replacement. So they could indefinitely slowly upgrade the core-parts in the Switch without ever dropping the price or changing the name. Like I mentioned a while ago, Tablet Technology isn't at this stage but Complimentary Computing devices or the aptly named ProDock might be the thing they use to both support AAA games on the console or stream to the tablet.

We shall see but I don't think it would be that difficult to outsell the PS4, the DS will be the real hurdle for the Switch.

Generations is only meaningless if you live in a Nintendo World. 

PS3 > PS4/Pro > PS5

X360 > X1/X1X > XSX

The generations are very clear and the upcoming generation is going to be a very nice upgrade in terms of power and graphics. Very much looking forward to it. 

Nintendo was never able to keep up in the hardware department, this is why the generations seems deluge to people who only follows Nintendo. 

Actually generations still matter in a "Nintendo World." The difference between GameCube to Wii to Wii U to Switch is pretty clear cut. But for PS and Xbox, I don't get what generations would mean after the upcoming gen. Like they can't market grpaphucs anymore because things already look so damn realistic and they are also eliminating loading times, the only improvements left would be incremental or in CPUs and stuff that aren't as marketable to make a new gen.

Like them saying 8k 60fps doesn't sound all that enticing because the human eye wouldn't be able to tell the difference between 4k and 8k unless the TV screens become huge as hell. And 4k 120fps would be weird because most TVs don't have 120Hz refresh rate. Gens are still pretty easy for Nintendo right now even without another Ninty innovation but gens are becoming really hard for the twins and Xbox already sees a future in streaming so they might become even a bit more useless once that kicks off.



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To keep the thread on topic here is some data:

PS4 and Switch Quarterly shipments for the first 15 for PS4 and 13 for Switch. 

 Quarter  PS4  PS4 Total  Switch  Switch Total Difference
Q1 4.5 4.5 2.74 2.74 1.76
Q2 3.0 7.5 1.97 4.70 2.8
Q3 2.7 10.2 2.93 7.63 2.57
Q4 3.3 13.5 7.23 14.86 -136
Q5 6.4 19.9 2.93 17.79 2.11
Q6 2.4 22.3 1.88 19.67 2.63
Q7 3.0 25.3 3.19 22.86 2.44
Q8 4.0 29.3 9.41 32.27 -2.97
Q9 8.4 37.7 2.47 34.74 3.13
Q10 2.3 40 2.13 36.87 3.63
Q11 3.5 43.5 4.80 41.67 1.83
Q12 3.9 47.4 10.81 52.48 -5.08
Q13 9.7 57.1 3.29 55.77 1.33
Q14 2.9 60
Q15 3.3 63.3

edit: added Difference column 

The Switch has overtaken the PS4 3 times.

Edit 2: fixed error

Last edited by Chicho - on 15 July 2020

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Chicho said:

To keep the thread on topic here is some data:

PS4 and Switch Quarterly shipments for the first 15 for PS4 and 13 for Switch. 

 Quarter  PS4  PS4 Total  Switch  Switch Total Difference
Q1 4.5 4.5 2.74 2.74 1.76
Q2 3.0 7.5 1.97 4.70 2.8
Q3 2.7 10.2 2.93 7.63 2.57
Q4 3.3 13.5 7.23 14.86 -136
Q5 6.4 19.9 2.93 17.79 2.11
Q6 2.4 22.3 1.88 19.67 2.63
Q7 3.5 25.8 3.19 22.86 2.94
Q8 4.0 29.8 9.41 32.27 -2.47
Q9 8.4 38.2 2.47 34.74 3.46
Q10 2.3 40.5 2.13 36.87 3.63
Q11 3.5 44 4.80 41.67 2.33
Q12 3.9 47.9 10.81 52.48 -4.58
Q13 9.7 57.6 3.29 55.77 1.83
Q14 2.9 60.5
Q15 3.3 63.8

edit: added Difference column 

The Switch has overtaken the PS4 3 times.

The back and forth is the result of the different launch timings. The PS4 starts each year with the holiday quarter while Switch ends each year with the holiday quarter. If you look at the numbers after Q4, Q8, Q12, Q16 etc. - because at these points both consoles have gone through each quarter of the year the same amount of times - you get a better idea.

Switch was ahead by 1.36m after the first year, ahead by 2.97m after two years, ahead by 5.05m after three years (PS4's Q7 was 3.0m, not 3.5m, so your table carries on an error of 0.5m). This shows a trend of Switch slowly growing its lead every year and this will continue in the fourth year. The PS4 already had its holiday season for the period Q13-Q16 and is only 1.33m ahead. A look ahead for the PS4's LTD:

Q16: 67.5m
Q20: 86.1m
Q24: 102.8m

Switch's lead after Q16 is bound to be greater than 5m and afterwards the PS4 begins its decline, so it will be a matter of which console will have declined faster, all the while Switch is allowed to do a bit worse than the PS4 because it has built a lead. The chances for the PS4 to come out on top will be slim if Switch beats it for five years straight (20 quarters); and Switch is likely to beat the PS4 in its fifth year too, because 2021 is a very probable year for a Switch revision and/or price cut to stabilize sales.



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RolStoppable said:

The back and forth is the result of the different launch timings. The PS4 starts each year with the holiday quarter while Switch ends each year with the holiday quarter. If you look at the numbers after Q4, Q8, Q12, Q16 etc. - because at these points both consoles have gone through each quarter of the year the same amount of times - you get a better idea.

Switch was ahead by 1.36m after the first year, ahead by 2.97m after two years, ahead by 5.05m after three years (PS4's Q7 was 3.0m, not 3.5m, so your table carries on an error of 0.5m). This shows a trend of Switch slowly growing its lead every year and this will continue in the fourth year. The PS4 already had its holiday season for the period Q13-Q16 and is only 1.33m ahead. A look ahead for the PS4's LTD:

Q16: 67.5m
Q20: 86.1m
Q24: 102.8m

Switch's lead after Q16 is bound to be greater than 5m and afterwards the PS4 begins its decline, so it will be a matter of which console will have declined faster, all the while Switch is allowed to do a bit worse than the PS4 because it has built a lead. The chances for the PS4 to come out on top will be slim if Switch beats it for five years straight (20 quarters); and Switch is likely to beat the PS4 in its fifth year too, because 2021 is a very probable year for a Switch revision and/or price cut to stabilize sales.

I did have have 3 initially and looking over i changed it. Must have made a mistake cause i just double checked and you are right. Thanks for pointing it out.

fixed

Last edited by Chicho - on 15 July 2020

Slownenberg said:
Pavolink said:

By 2024 the industry has already been moved on to new tech. We have already 2 gens showing us this.

Nintendo is comfortable enough by now having a ton of support, releasing third party games and ports between their own first party tittles, avoinding as possible the droughts. Even Nintendo has mentioned, proudly, the amount of games that the Switch is gathering.

They are not after the same tech race between MS and Sony, but after the games that the industry is producing, and having modern tech that allows those developers to port their titles.

By holiday 2022 it would have an almost-6 years life span. DS lasted from holiday 2004 to February 2011 (6 years+3 months) and its Nintendo's most succesful hardware ever.

Also, nobody is saying that the console is going to be discointinued or that it wouldn't get anymore games. I would like to also read why do you believe that Nintendo is going to hold on the Switch until March 2024, and I mean honestly. Maybe I'm missing something.

I don't know what your point of saying by 2024 new tech will have arrived, it seems you are agreeing with me. Yes new tech will arrive in 2024: Switch 2. Your comment doesn't even seem to be an answer to mine, I'm not even sure what you're talking about in the first part. Yes new tech will be here in 2024, yes Nintendo has plenty of support, yes Nintendo is not in an direct arms race with MS/Sony. Agreed on all accounts, nothing about that suggests that Nintendo will cut off the Switch super early.

As to your second part commenting to scottslater, yes you are definitely missing something. The something that you are missing is that the Switch is the hottest thing in the gaming industry for the past 10+ years. It is GAINING momentum in year 4 and hasn't even had a price cut, and is likely to have another version (premium version?) come out at some point, and you suggest it will be replaced before it has even been on the market for 6 years. It is in the middle of its lifecycle and you suggest Nintendo will be replacing it in less than 2.5 years! That makes no sense. Assuming this is the Switch's peak year, it could still sell 20 million next year...and you think it should be replaced the year after it is likely to sell around 20 million (a number that PS4 never even hit and it was kept on the market for 7 years, not under 6). A holiday 2022 replacement means Nintendo decided they needed to cut the Switch's lifespan early because it didn't do that well, obviously we know reality is the opposite of that assessment. Nothing about how the Switch has done suggests there is any reason to cut it off early, rather the opposite, which is why a 2024 Switch 2 launch is likely.

I'm not saying that Nintendo is going to cut the Switch. Releasing a successor does not mean the Switch is going to stop getting games. The games that does not come to the Switch, may come to the successor. I don't believe that once the succesor comes, Nintendo and other developers are going to forget about the big userbase they already have, beacuse I believe the successor is going to be retrocompatible.

I don't like comparing Switch sales with PS4, when I know from past generations that PS consoles sells more than Nintendo ones at the end of their cycle. On top of that, I belive that part of the boost that the Switch and other consoles are getting currently is because of the pandemic, a boost that will not be sustained in future years. I'm not sure about the impact the current situation is going to have in the future sales for the Switch, or for the next gen consoles sales.

I don't believe that we need to wait until sales are pretty low to repleace a device. I don't believe that releasing a successor soon means that the current hardware was a failure (GBA for example). I don't believe that using the current hype for a new device is bad mvoe.

Finally I don't understand why 2024 it likely, when using the same logic I can go even further up to a 2025 or 2026 release.



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Drakrami said:

Nintendo was never able to keep up in the hardware department

Exactly, since they're only in the market since 2005 and the launch of the Wii.

Oh wait.



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If sales keep on following current trend, staying on the market as long as PS4, NS would end up outselling it, but we don't know enough yet about the last part of NS lifecycle, how much it will sell in its last years as main Ninty console, when its successor will be launched, and how long and how many units Ninty will keep on producing NS after NS2 launch.



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