| RolStoppable said: The back and forth is the result of the different launch timings. The PS4 starts each year with the holiday quarter while Switch ends each year with the holiday quarter. If you look at the numbers after Q4, Q8, Q12, Q16 etc. - because at these points both consoles have gone through each quarter of the year the same amount of times - you get a better idea. Switch was ahead by 1.36m after the first year, ahead by 2.97m after two years, ahead by 5.05m after three years (PS4's Q7 was 3.0m, not 3.5m, so your table carries on an error of 0.5m). This shows a trend of Switch slowly growing its lead every year and this will continue in the fourth year. The PS4 already had its holiday season for the period Q13-Q16 and is only 1.33m ahead. A look ahead for the PS4's LTD: Q16: 67.5m Switch's lead after Q16 is bound to be greater than 5m and afterwards the PS4 begins its decline, so it will be a matter of which console will have declined faster, all the while Switch is allowed to do a bit worse than the PS4 because it has built a lead. The chances for the PS4 to come out on top will be slim if Switch beats it for five years straight (20 quarters); and Switch is likely to beat the PS4 in its fifth year too, because 2021 is a very probable year for a Switch revision and/or price cut to stabilize sales. |
I did have have 3 initially and looking over i changed it. Must have made a mistake cause i just double checked and you are right. Thanks for pointing it out.
fixed
Last edited by Chicho - on 15 July 2020
