Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

[Pavolink]

Slownenberg said:

Pavolink said:

By 2024 the industry has already been moved on to new tech. We have already 2 gens showing us this.

Nintendo is comfortable enough by now having a ton of support, releasing third party games and ports between their own first party tittles, avoinding as possible the droughts. Even Nintendo has mentioned, proudly, the amount of games that the Switch is gathering.

They are not after the same tech race between MS and Sony, but after the games that the industry is producing, and having modern tech that allows those developers to port their titles.

By holiday 2022 it would have an almost-6 years life span. DS lasted from holiday 2004 to February 2011 (6 years+3 months) and its Nintendo's most succesful hardware ever.

Also, nobody is saying that the console is going to be discointinued or that it wouldn't get anymore games. I would like to also read why do you believe that Nintendo is going to hold on the Switch until March 2024, and I mean honestly. Maybe I'm missing something.

I don't know what your point of saying by 2024 new tech will have arrived, it seems you are agreeing with me. Yes new tech will arrive in 2024: Switch 2. Your comment doesn't even seem to be an answer to mine, I'm not even sure what you're talking about in the first part. Yes new tech will be here in 2024, yes Nintendo has plenty of support, yes Nintendo is not in an direct arms race with MS/Sony. Agreed on all accounts, nothing about that suggests that Nintendo will cut off the Switch super early.

As to your second part commenting to scottslater, yes you are definitely missing something. The something that you are missing is that the Switch is the hottest thing in the gaming industry for the past 10+ years. It is GAINING momentum in year 4 and hasn't even had a price cut, and is likely to have another version (premium version?) come out at some point, and you suggest it will be replaced before it has even been on the market for 6 years. It is in the middle of its lifecycle and you suggest Nintendo will be replacing it in less than 2.5 years! That makes no sense. Assuming this is the Switch's peak year, it could still sell 20 million next year...and you think it should be replaced the year after it is likely to sell around 20 million (a number that PS4 never even hit and it was kept on the market for 7 years, not under 6). A holiday 2022 replacement means Nintendo decided they needed to cut the Switch's lifespan early because it didn't do that well, obviously we know reality is the opposite of that assessment. Nothing about how the Switch has done suggests there is any reason to cut it off early, rather the opposite, which is why a 2024 Switch 2 launch is likely.

I'm not saying that Nintendo is going to cut the Switch. Releasing a successor does not mean the Switch is going to stop getting games. The games that does not come to the Switch, may come to the successor. I don't believe that once the succesor comes, Nintendo and other developers are going to forget about the big userbase they already have, beacuse I believe the successor is going to be retrocompatible.

I don't like comparing Switch sales with PS4, when I know from past generations that PS consoles sells more than Nintendo ones at the end of their cycle. On top of that, I belive that part of the boost that the Switch and other consoles are getting currently is because of the pandemic, a boost that will not be sustained in future years. I'm not sure about the impact the current situation is going to have in the future sales for the Switch, or for the next gen consoles sales.

I don't believe that we need to wait until sales are pretty low to repleace a device. I don't believe that releasing a successor soon means that the current hardware was a failure (GBA for example). I don't believe that using the current hype for a new device is bad mvoe.

Finally I don't understand why 2024 it likely, when using the same logic I can go even further up to a 2025 or 2026 release.