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Slownenberg on 09 August 2020
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Intrinsic said:
Shaunodon said:

One thing I don't see mentioned too often, that Switch on it's current trajectory with momentum and enough supply, could not only swoop pass 3DS at the end of this year, but also reach 100mil units sold by the end of next year.

The record for a calendar year is DS 2008 at just under 30m, while right now week-for-week Switch is ahead of it. If it can reach 30m or even near that for the year, it'd then just have to follow with 20-25m sales next year to reach 100m. In a year likely stacked with huge software, with more announced/showcased for soon after helping momentum.

20m+ for next calendar year should be the expectation by now, unless you're a believer in 'Cliff Theory'.

So PS4, currently the fastest home console to reach 100m units sold, yet Switch is on track to beat that milestone by about a year.

What I don't see mentioned and that is of even greater significance; its the price of these consoles.

PS4 launched at $399. 
Nintendo Switch launched at $299

PS4 dropped to $299 35 months after launch and has stayed at that price since.
Nintendo Switch introduced a $199 Switch 18 months after its original launch.

Would a $299 switch be pushing these kinda numbers? I mean just compare Switch sales this year and last year before the Lite. What kinda numbers would a $199 PS4 be pushing if say in fall 2018 the promotional $199 price became permanent?

At the end of the day, yes... one can say this is fastest and so on, but context is lost when the price is not considered, cause price is one of the most important driving factors of sales. This is part of what really makes these comparisons just for fun and giggles. Its like comparing apples to oranges, not only are they two fundamentally different types of consoles, that they are is also reflected in their pricing.

But you are conveniently ignoring the fact that the Switch hasn't had a price cut yet!

The Lite offers fewer features: no joy cons, no TV gaming, no two player with the included controllers, no single-system multiplayer at all. No doubt the Lite helps, as did the PS4 price cut, but the fact remains Switch is at 41 months with no price cut, this year is selling far better than the PS4 ever did despite the PS4+Xb1 providing more competition to Switch than WiiU+Xb1 did to PS4, plus you have people obviously saving up for the two next gen systems right now which adds more competition for people's money, and yet still Switch is destroying any year PS4 had.

The Switch is currently at 41 months without a price cut, while as you said PS4 got a price cut at 35 months, and it is looking likely the Switch will go another 12 months without a price cut given its monster sales. And it is already out pacing the PS4 despite this, by a year from now it should be over 5 million in front of PS4's pace.

So yes, taking pricing into context does matter, which makes the Switch look even stronger because it hasn't gotten a price cut and a portable-only cheaper system is not the same as a price cut, as we can see be the fact that the Lite isn't nearly as popular as the OG Switch even at $100 cheaper, even in Japan!

You didn't make an argument against Switch's position, you made an argument in favor of Switch's stronger position!

Also, Lite came out 30 months after Switch launched, not 18 months. Again, making the case in favor of the Switch's strength at this point in their life cycles in comparison to PS4.