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Shaunodon on 09 August 2020
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scottslater said:
Intrinsic said:
I believe sony is not really trying to sell more PS4s. This is evident in the fact that it is still $299 and has been so for almost 4 years.

Anyways, the simple answer is, Yes. Assuming however there isn't a switch 2 in 3 years.

Keep in mind, that around 2023 (when I expect to see a Switch 2, the PS4 would be at around 125M-130M units sold. So yeah, I m expecting PS4 to sell only like 10-15M over the next 2 - 3 years. This means that when looking at the NS sales, you aren't just looking at it doing 110M+ units, you looking at it ultimately doing around 125-130M sales. Which I believe it ould still do tough even if there is a switch 2.

All the data suggest though that it's tracking very closely (though ahead by a mil or so to the PS4. So there is no reason it shouldn't sell as much or more in the same time frame. Furthermore, it doesn't really have any competition. Like, imagine a world with no Xbox, right now the PS4 would be sitting at around 140M in sales at least. You can clearly and comfortably say that anyone buying a PS4/5 would need to choose between it and the Xbox, but no one looking to buy a Switch decides to instead get a PS or Xbox. Very different types of gaming consoles.

Mostly agree with many of these things other than the PS4 sales the next 2-3 years.  I think it would end up around 120 million units.

You have to remember the tracking that you are referencing the PS4 had 4 holiday seasons (it launched during it) while the Switch has had 3 in the same period.  After this Holiday season the Switch will be blowing it away.

Also, if there was no Xbox, I think the PS4 would have been the best selling console of all time because Nintendo would have gifted them multiple years of no competition, lol.

One thing I don't see mentioned too often, that Switch on it's current trajectory with momentum and enough supply, could not only swoop pass 3DS at the end of this year, but also reach 100mil units sold by the end of next year.

The record for a calendar year is DS 2008 at just under 30m, while right now week-for-week Switch is ahead of it. If it can reach 30m or even near that for the year, it'd then just have to follow with 20-25m sales next year to reach 100m. In a year likely stacked with huge software, with more announced/showcased for soon after helping momentum.

20m+ for next calendar year should be the expectation by now, unless you're a believer in 'Cliff Theory'.

So PS4, currently the fastest home console to reach 100m units sold, yet Switch is on track to beat that milestone by about a year.