Again, who cares what other people said in previous years, thats the thing with consoles they all eventually get to a point where they peak and new games/price cuts/revisions simply allow it to have a slow and steady decline. Saying that in year 1 or 2 was dumb, saying that in year 4 is far more logical.

You also can't talk about people making bad arguments when you are claiming it will sell over 160 million.

Well, it does seem kind of silly to think the Switch will have 3 straight years of selling 20M+.  The only console to do that was the DS, which the Switch is definitely not following its sales pattern.  I mean, there is no denying that the Switch has performed better this year than many, including myself, believed it would.  AC was a bigger HW pusher than we thought.  Of course, the Corona lockdown also had a lot to do with it.  It has pushed a lot of HW for all 3 systems. 

We are also at the point where every Nintendo franchise has had a game come out, even the ones that people questioned could push HW.  I guess the only one left is Metroid.  However, that franchise has never been a big seller.  It took that series 12 games over 2 1/2 decades to hit 17M+ units sold in 2012.  It's true the Zelda series was also questioned early in the Switch's life.  However that had, without question, a higher sales potential, hitting 19M+ with just 4 games in about 7 years in 1993. Of course, you also have the fact that the Prime series has never done well in Japan.  It could surprise us and sell better than other entries in the series, but that would probably only mean it would have to sell 2M-3M to hit that bar.

Once the new consoles launch, the Switch will also lose the luster of being the new console on the block.  Like you said, there's no reason to expect a cliff like what happened to the Wii, but tapering down, starting later this year or next year is just natural. 

I feel like Switches 5th year could be its peak id Nintendo drops the standard Switch to $200 and if it introduces another revision. It will need a steady rate of game releases as well.

I'm not even confident this year will be another 20m+ FY to be honest, given the total lack of major new games dated for the future. The AC boost won't last forever. It won't fall off a cliff, but we could be at the peak of the system now, with the decline beginning mid this year.

Sound reasoning attacks an argument and not a person.  That's why it matters what other people said.  I am defeating an argument and not a person.  If a different person gives the same bad argument, then it's still a bad argument.

I think game releases will be an interesting issue for Nintendo, not to mention every other company in the industry. As Phil Spencer mentioned, game releases are likely to be affected by COVID-19. Nintendo will have to be flexible about what games they can provide release dates for. If games are not going to be released as initially scheduled, internally, then we don't know how the hardware sales will work out, especially for the next-gen systems. Can Sony sell consoles for the first 1-2 years, based off of hype for the second generation in a row? Will Spider-man 2, Horizon Zero Dawn 2, and whatever Sony exclusive be released within launch month/window? Will there be any other big title other than Halo: Infinite releasing this holiday for Xbox Series X? One or two months after launch?

There are things still uncertain for everything related to economics, at least in the US, as I previously mentioned.

You are defeating the argument that hardware and software have saturation points? I'm sure you believe in a saturation point even if you disagree with the when that actually arrives.

Otherwise your logic is that a console will not decline as long as established big franchises are released for it and it will continue selling peak levels forever & there is no ceiling on how many users a new pokemon game will attract.

If an early pokemon game sells 16m and a late gen pokemon with double the userbase sells another 16m, you can already start to do the math to understand that maybe a large portion of 16m for the latter release is repeat users and there is not exponential growth.

Ultimately stop focusing on what other people have said in 2018 and just say that you don't think 2020 will be the reach of that saturation point because X, Y, Z.  

I.e you think Nintendo will produce more games for very casual audiences and they will be immediate smashs hits in ways 1,2 Switch and Ring Fit wasn't.

(Switch sports, Switch pets)

Or you think a Remastered Mario collection will sell on nostalgia and attract people who were on the fence.

Or you think BOTW2 will be even bigger than 1 and attract new audiences.

Or you think unexpected Animal crossing level system sellers are to be expected on a yearly basis because it has apparently happened every year of the Switches life so far (games like Smash & Pokemon do not fit into this argument lmao)....

It's why at the very beginning when quoted for "parroting logic", I simply asked whether the person has an opinion. Obviously a saturation point lays ahead, meaningful discussing can be had about when we think they will arrive.

Imagine if you told people back in early 2015 that Splatoon would go on to be a franchise where an individual entry can sell over 10 million, back when a large percentage of folks thought it would be DOA due to Nintendo gamers allegedly not being interested in shooters or new IPs. How far we've come.

While COVID19 is probably actually helping game hardware sales across the board right now, with people needing entertainment at home, unfortunately if it means Nintendo won't have a BOTW2 type big holiday game as a result of development being disrupted, it becomes a lot harder to keep that 20+ mill a year pace. 

I mean a collection of older Mario games in HD is nice, but it doesn't replace a true blue AAA big holiday release like the Switch has gotten in Mario Odyssey, Super Smash Bros, and Pokemon the previous few years. 

If it is just an HD remaster then I agree.

But if Ninty ended up giving Mario 64 the OoT and MM mask treatment ala 3DS versions then it could be huge.