A lot of these touch on similar points so I will respond collectively
For 10m+ sellers
2 Pokemon games, (2021 and 2022 unless corona pushes them back)
Another Mario Party
a strongly rumored 3D Mario collection
Again all of that is stuff that is very likely to release and has a good chance of going 10m+. Nintendo still has strong sellers it can release every year, and this is on top of other games like Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4. The release schedule is going to keep rolling out the hits. On top of all of that:
-Nintendo keeps releasing new IP every year. Expect that to continue.
-Switch hasn't had a price drop yet.
-There is a virus that makes people want to sit at home and play video games.
You’re repeating what’s been said before lol.
In 2017, after Zelda and Mario the switch will fall off a cliff.
In 2018, people still wasn’t convinced that smash is a big deal until release.
In 2019, same thing Pokémon game won’t change that.
In 2020, Animal Crossing is a non factor. Switch aha no aaa game coming out.
- Beyonetta 3, Metroid 4 are all very important titles that could potentially be massive. Keep in mind Zelda sold 3 million copies (skyward sword) to 19 million (BOTW).
- Mario Kart 9
- BOTW 2
- Odessey 2
- new ip
- new refreshed hardware
Skyward swords notable below normal zelda releases for 2 reasons; 1 its late gen game (which comes into my point a bit later), 2 it requires motion plus.
You're speaking in hindsight.... I guarantee you the were people who didn't see AC as an elite platform seller if you went back to 2019 and told people AC would outsell FFVIIR easily and move far more platforms the would have been a significant amount of people who would have contested
- You say games like Pokemon are once in a generation impact yet Sun/Moon highlight this is incorrect as it gave the 3DS a second wind the same goes for sequels as other platforms sell on sequels to games like COD and Assassin's Creed for years.
- It has a monopoly on one side of the market while also competing in the other, the portable market sold 91m units in total with the Vita and 3DS those consumers all have to go somewhere for their portable fix.
- The Lite opens up the platform to having more than one per household as people may have a spouse or kids who are into gaming.
- At some point collective library begins selling the platform just as effectively as the need for a big market hyped title
1. People have said this in the past and moved the goal post. Anyone who was arguing Smash and Pokemon would not make a dent despite both historically being 2nd only to Mario Kart are not making the same argument as me. Its not based on hindsight, its easily observable sales history.
2. No one expected AC to smash the way it did. In spite of New Leaf literally being the 3DS' 7th best selling title at 12m, I completely agree everyone underestimated how AC would performed. As someone heavily on Social Media, social media presence alongside Corona are 2 things which I think really heightened its impact. None the less it was always going to be a big hit. Being suprised by AC's performance is one thing, expecting repeats of it (which I feel is the argument you have to be making, if you're criticisng my logic) is another. If this was the 2nd/3rd surprise phenomenom during the Switches life then I would get the point but its not.
2. BOTW2, MarioKart9, Sequels to the massive sellers.
Pokemon X/Y 2013; 16m,
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 12m
Pokemon Sun/Moon 2016: Software sales; 16m
3DS hardware FY ending march 2017; 7m
I could actually provide tons of examples, from pokemon games on the DS, Zelda on other platforms (Wii/N64), Mario Galaxy/Mario Galax2, Mario party 8 > 9. For sure returning big hitters help slow down decline but they do not stop it from happening. And it makes total sense, because the first entries convinces most fans of said game/franchise to hop on board the platform. Mario Kart 9 will sell a shit ton of software, I personally would not see it doing gang busters where hardware is concerned because MK8 is doing that job already, hence the insane legs.
4. New IP/Another Animal Crossing type phenomenom.
In the last 3 years Nintendo has seen ZERO new IPs released to massive fan fare, not to say they've failed but they simply haven't done especially great numbers. And hoping that another known quantity will suddenly see an AC level boost is a bet I'm not willing to take but maybe you are?
5. Momentum of collective library: I think this is exactly what we're seeing now, Animal crossing & corona were the cherry on top. I've even said I don't think they need a big holiday title. Still I don't think this momentum will sustain 20m+ sales in 18months time.
For sure Corona is a factor (also unexpected), but one that I think reinforces the idea of the next 12months seeing a peak hardware wise.
7. Hardware revisions.
Expected, I think the most important one (Switch Lite) is out now and we're seeing that reflecting in its current sales. It's actually not as big as I expected though which gives kudos to the original Switch design.
8. Price cut.
My opinion is Nintendo will not cut the price to boast about 20m sales figures, meaning a price cut will only happen when we're already seeing big decline. It will offset this decline but not usher in a new peak. Because the Switch is already at a mass market price I don't think a price cut will align with its peak. Typically this is what we see for systems which start off expensive (or in 3DS case viewed as over priced) and thus are very price elastic.
Last edited by Otter - on 09 May 2020
Lastly I feel like you guys are arguing with the Ghost of a Nintendo doom sayer LMAO. I'm not arguing doom, I'm arguing I don't expect 3 more years of 20m sales and explaining why, but I've now heard you arguments for why you expect such a thing. I disagree, of course I could be wrong. If so remind me in 2 years time ;)