Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results May 7th 2020 - Switch: 55.77m, (21m for the FY) Animal Crossing: 11.77m

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Why the HD though? Nintendo gave them Wii Sports HD, Mario Kart HD, Wii Fit HD, Super Mario Bros HD, Smash HD, 3D Zelda remake HD, a revolutionary 3D, HD Zelda sequel and less than 15% of Wii owners bought the system.

Wii HD was always a stupid idea.  That is what the comic is mocking.  Just like Switch Pro is a stupid idea.  It's the same stupid idea.  The fact that Nintendo actually made a Wii HD eventually really just proves how dumb Wii HD really was.  And yet people still keep talking about Switch Pro even though it's the same dumb idea.

Exactly and that's why it could only have been Xbots and Sony fans that bought the WiiU. Why would a Nintendo fan buy the same or worse games just because they're in HD? Answer - they didn't.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Around the Network

A lot of these touch on similar points so I will respond collectively

The_Liquid_Laser said:

For 10m+ sellers
2 Pokemon games, (2021 and 2022 unless corona pushes them back)
BotW 2
Another Mario Party
Tomadachi game
a strongly rumored 3D Mario collection

Again all of that is stuff that is very likely to release and has a good chance of going 10m+.  Nintendo still has strong sellers it can release every year, and this is on top of other games like Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4.  The release schedule is going to keep rolling out the hits.  On top of all of that:

-Nintendo keeps releasing new IP every year.  Expect that to continue.
-Switch hasn't had a price drop yet.
-There is a virus that makes people want to sit at home and play video games.

BlackBeauty said:

You’re repeating what’s been said before lol. 

In 2017, after Zelda and Mario the switch will fall off a cliff.

In 2018, people still wasn’t convinced that smash is a big deal until release. 

In 2019, same thing Pokémon game won’t change that.

In 2020, Animal Crossing is a non factor. Switch aha no aaa game coming out. 

---------
- Beyonetta 3, Metroid 4 are all very important titles that could potentially be massive. Keep in mind Zelda sold 3 million copies (skyward sword) to  19 million (BOTW). 

- Mario Kart 9

- BOTW 2

- Odessey 2

- new ip

- new refreshed hardware

Skyward swords notable below normal zelda releases for 2 reasons; 1 its  late gen game (which comes into my point a bit later), 2 it requires motion plus.

Wyrdness said:

You're speaking in hindsight.... I guarantee you the were people who didn't see AC as an elite platform seller if you went back to 2019 and told people AC would outsell FFVIIR easily and move far more platforms the would have been a significant amount of people who would have contested

- You say games like Pokemon are once in a generation impact yet Sun/Moon highlight this is incorrect as it gave the 3DS a second wind the same goes for sequels as other platforms sell on sequels to games like COD and Assassin's Creed for years.

- It has a monopoly on one side of the market while also competing in the other, the portable market sold 91m units in total with the Vita and 3DS those consumers all have to go somewhere for their portable fix.

- The Lite opens up the platform to having more than one per household as people may have a spouse or kids who are into gaming.

- At some point collective library begins selling the platform just as effectively as the need for a big market hyped title 

1. People have said this in the past and moved the goal post. Anyone who was arguing Smash and Pokemon would not make a dent despite both historically being 2nd only to Mario Kart are not making the same argument as me. Its not based on hindsight, its easily observable sales history. 

2. No one expected AC to smash the way it did. In spite of New Leaf literally being the 3DS' 7th best selling title at 12m, I completely agree everyone underestimated how AC would performed. As someone heavily on Social Media, social media presence alongside Corona are 2 things which I think really heightened its impact. None the less it was always going to be a big hit. Being suprised by AC's performance is one thing, expecting repeats of it (which I feel is the argument you have to be making, if you're criticisng my logic) is another. If this was the 2nd/3rd surprise phenomenom during the Switches life then I would get the point but its not.

2. BOTW2, MarioKart9, Sequels to the massive sellers.

Pokemon X/Y 2013; 16m,
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 12m

Pokemon Sun/Moon 2016: Software sales; 16m
3DS hardware FY ending march 2017; 7m

I could actually provide tons of examples, from pokemon games on the DS, Zelda on other platforms (Wii/N64), Mario Galaxy/Mario Galax2, Mario party 8 > 9. For sure returning big hitters help slow down decline but they do not stop it from happening. And it makes total sense, because the first entries convinces most fans of said game/franchise to hop on board the platform. Mario Kart 9 will sell a shit ton of software, I personally would not see it doing gang busters where hardware is concerned because MK8 is doing that job already, hence the insane legs.


4. New IP/Another Animal Crossing type phenomenom.

In the last 3 years Nintendo has seen ZERO new IPs released to massive fan fare, not to say they've failed but they simply haven't done especially great numbers. And hoping that another known quantity will suddenly see an AC level boost is a bet I'm not willing to take but maybe you are?

5. Momentum of collective library: I think this is exactly what we're seeing now, Animal crossing & corona were the cherry on top. I've even said I don't think they need a big holiday title. Still I don't think this momentum will sustain 20m+ sales in 18months time. 

6. Corona:
For sure Corona is a factor (also unexpected), but one that I think reinforces the idea of the next 12months seeing a peak hardware wise.

7. Hardware revisions.

Expected, I think the most important one (Switch Lite) is out now and we're seeing that reflecting in its current sales. It's actually not as big as I expected though which gives kudos to the original Switch design.

8. Price cut.

My opinion is Nintendo will not cut the price to boast about 20m sales figures, meaning a price cut will only happen when we're already seeing big decline. It will offset this decline but not usher in a new peak. Because the Switch is already at a mass market price I don't think a price cut will align with its peak. Typically this is what we see for systems which start off expensive (or in 3DS case viewed as over priced) and thus are very price elastic. 


Lastly I feel like you guys are arguing with the Ghost of a Nintendo doom sayer LMAO. I'm not arguing doom, I'm arguing I don't expect 3 more years of 20m sales and explaining why, but I've now heard you arguments for why you expect such a thing. I disagree, of course I could be wrong. If so remind me in 2 years time  ;)

Last edited by Otter - on 09 May 2020

The sales will be 20m+ for the next few years. My reason for this is that households are beginning to have multiple switches per household. Having islands localized to switches in animal crossing led to people who normally share a switch to play games having to get their own. This is one of the reasons animal crossings release led to such a huge boost in switch sales. I believe in future games, Nintendo will continue to find ways that entice households to purchase multiple switches.



Dyotropic said:
SKMBlake said:

Odyssey didn't get a DLC. Nor MK8D. Nor Pokémon Let's Go.

Odyssey received several updates including the balloon game dlc. 

Mario kart 8 deluxe includes the 2 dlc packs from mario kart 8 bundled in. (Port + dlc)

Pokemon let's go is a remake. 

The balloon game isn't a DLC, it's an update as you pointed out. It will be in the game whether you want it or not, like the last Super Mario Maker update.

And MK8D is the definitive edition of MK8 but didn't get any DLC since release.

And regarding Pokémon, how a remake cannot be eligible for a DLC ?



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

SKMBlake said:
Dyotropic said:

Odyssey received several updates including the balloon game dlc. 

Mario kart 8 deluxe includes the 2 dlc packs from mario kart 8 bundled in. (Port + dlc)

Pokemon let's go is a remake. 

The balloon game isn't a DLC, it's an update as you pointed out. It will be in the game whether you want it or not, like the last Super Mario Maker update.

And MK8D is the definitive edition of MK8 but didn't get any DLC since release.

And regarding Pokémon, how a remake cannot be eligible for a DLC ?

The balloon game is officially listed as "Luigi's Balloon World DLC" by nintendo, so it technically is DLC. There were also new outfits added continuously after the games release. It automatically updates because the dlc is free. 

I have never heard of a remake of any game ever getting dlc. They added compatibility with pokemon home post-release as a quality of life update. Super mario party is not a remake. 

Mario kart on the switch includes the dlc bundle (it has the dlc). The could have ported it and made everyone purchase the DLC, but they decided to include it for free. 

Captain Toad is the only port to receive DLC. I think it needed it to boost sales as it is a lesser known IP and it's well known thanks to data miners that the levels were likely unreleased levels planned for the initial game on wiiu. Luigi's mansion also has DLC and super mario maker receives free updates as you mentioned. 

Almost all Nintendo games on the switch that are not ports or remakes are getting post-game updates. Zelda, Splatoon 2, odyssey, Luigi's mansion, super mario maker 2, and animal crossing have all received post-game updates from Nintendo. Super mario party is the unusual exception and the one that needs it most. 



Around the Network
Otter said:

...

- Easily observable but people still thought otherwise because the central thinking of their argument is what I pointed out earlier they'd use the argument that fans are already on board the platform.

- New Leaf is the seventh best sell 3DS game but it wasn't massive platform mover it caused a spike in Japan and then got to where it was through sales legs this is what people were expect with NH and why a significant number of people would have contested it being a massive system seller, they knew it would sell well but didn't think it move platforms that's why a lot of the "well it was always going to sell" is a hindsight adjustment.

- FY ending March 2017 was the 3DS' 6th year of the 7m you reported 6.4m came in the quarter S/M released according to Nintendo's own figures the result was that FY ending March 2017 was up over the prior FY which goes against what you said about sequel's impact it sold a further 6.4m in FY2017 it's 7th year when the NS was out already selling well before dropping to 2.3m after that meaning as a platform that was already replaced went on to sell 12.8m after S/M despite being replaced by it's successor and in its 6th and 7th years during that time as well.



Otter said:

A lot of these touch on similar points so I will respond collectively

The_Liquid_Laser said:

For 10m+ sellers
2 Pokemon games, (2021 and 2022 unless corona pushes them back)
BotW 2
Another Mario Party
Tomadachi game
a strongly rumored 3D Mario collection

Again all of that is stuff that is very likely to release and has a good chance of going 10m+.  Nintendo still has strong sellers it can release every year, and this is on top of other games like Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4.  The release schedule is going to keep rolling out the hits.  On top of all of that:

-Nintendo keeps releasing new IP every year.  Expect that to continue.
-Switch hasn't had a price drop yet.
-There is a virus that makes people want to sit at home and play video games.

BlackBeauty said:

You’re repeating what’s been said before lol. 

In 2017, after Zelda and Mario the switch will fall off a cliff.

In 2018, people still wasn’t convinced that smash is a big deal until release. 

In 2019, same thing Pokémon game won’t change that.

In 2020, Animal Crossing is a non factor. Switch aha no aaa game coming out. 

---------
- Beyonetta 3, Metroid 4 are all very important titles that could potentially be massive. Keep in mind Zelda sold 3 million copies (skyward sword) to  19 million (BOTW). 

- Mario Kart 9

- BOTW 2

- Odessey 2

- new ip

- new refreshed hardware

Skyward swords notable below normal zelda releases for 2 reasons; 1 its  late gen game (which comes into my point a bit later), 2 it requires motion plus.

Wyrdness said:

You're speaking in hindsight.... I guarantee you the were people who didn't see AC as an elite platform seller if you went back to 2019 and told people AC would outsell FFVIIR easily and move far more platforms the would have been a significant amount of people who would have contested

- You say games like Pokemon are once in a generation impact yet Sun/Moon highlight this is incorrect as it gave the 3DS a second wind the same goes for sequels as other platforms sell on sequels to games like COD and Assassin's Creed for years.

- It has a monopoly on one side of the market while also competing in the other, the portable market sold 91m units in total with the Vita and 3DS those consumers all have to go somewhere for their portable fix.

- The Lite opens up the platform to having more than one per household as people may have a spouse or kids who are into gaming.

- At some point collective library begins selling the platform just as effectively as the need for a big market hyped title 

1. People have said this in the past and moved the goal post. Anyone who was arguing Smash and Pokemon would not make a dent despite both historically being 2nd only to Mario Kart are not making the same argument as me. Its not based on hindsight, its easily observable sales history. 

2. No one expected AC to smash the way it did. In spite of New Leaf literally being the 3DS' 7th best selling title at 12m, I completely agree everyone underestimated how AC would performed. As someone heavily on Social Media, social media presence alongside Corona are 2 things which I think really heightened its impact. None the less it was always going to be a big hit. Being suprised by AC's performance is one thing, expecting repeats of it (which I feel is the argument you have to be making, if you're criticisng my logic) is another. If this was the 2nd/3rd surprise phenomenom during the Switches life then I would get the point but its not.

2. BOTW2, MarioKart9, Sequels to the massive sellers.

Pokemon X/Y 2013; 16m,
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 12m

Pokemon Sun/Moon 2016: Software sales; 16m
3DS hardware FY ending march 2017; 7m

I could actually provide tons of examples, from pokemon games on the DS, Zelda on other platforms (Wii/N64), Mario Galaxy/Mario Galax2, Mario party 8 > 9. For sure returning big hitters help slow down decline but they do not stop it from happening. And it makes total sense, because the first entries convinces most fans of said game/franchise to hop on board the platform. Mario Kart 9 will sell a shit ton of software, I personally would not see it doing gang busters where hardware is concerned because MK8 is doing that job already, hence the insane legs.


4. New IP/Another Animal Crossing type phenomenom.

In the last 3 years Nintendo has seen ZERO new IPs released to massive fan fare, not to say they've failed but they simply haven't done especially great numbers. And hoping that another known quantity will suddenly see an AC level boost is a bet I'm not willing to take but maybe you are?

5. Momentum of collective library: I think this is exactly what we're seeing now, Animal crossing & corona were the cherry on top. I've even said I don't think they need a big holiday title. Still I don't think this momentum will sustain 20m+ sales in 18months time. 

6. Corona:
For sure Corona is a factor (also unexpected), but one that I think reinforces the idea of the next 12months seeing a peak hardware wise.

7. Hardware revisions.

Expected, I think the most important one (Switch Lite) is out now and we're seeing that reflecting in its current sales. It's actually not as big as I expected though which gives kudos to the original Switch design.

8. Price cut.

My opinion is Nintendo will not cut the price to boast about 20m sales figures, meaning a price cut will only happen when we're already seeing big decline. It will offset this decline but not usher in a new peak. Because the Switch is already at a mass market price I don't think a price cut will align with its peak. Typically this is what we see for systems which start off expensive (or in 3DS case viewed as over priced) and thus are very price elastic. 


Lastly I feel like you guys are arguing with the Ghost of a Nintendo doom sayer LMAO. I'm not arguing doom, I'm arguing I don't expect 3 more years of 20m sales and explaining why, but I've now heard you arguments for why you expect such a thing. I disagree, of course I could be wrong. If so remind me in 2 years time  ;)

So basically the Switch will fall off a cliff this year.




Wyrdness said:
Otter said:

...

- Easily observable but people still thought otherwise because the central thinking of their argument is what I pointed out earlier they'd use the argument that fans are already on board the platform.

- New Leaf is the seventh best sell 3DS game but it wasn't massive platform mover it caused a spike in Japan and then got to where it was through sales legs this is what people were expect with NH and why a significant number of people would have contested it being a massive system seller, they knew it would sell well but didn't think it move platforms that's why a lot of the "well it was always going to sell" is a hindsight adjustment.

- FY ending March 2017 was the 3DS' 6th year of the 7m you reported 6.4m came in the quarter S/M released according to Nintendo's own figures the result was that FY ending March 2017 was up over the prior FY which goes against what you said about sequel's impact it sold a further 6.4m in FY2017 it's 7th year when the NS was out already selling well before dropping to 2.3m after that meaning as a platform that was already replaced went on to sell 12.8m after S/M despite being replaced by it's successor and in its 6th and 7th years during that time as well.

_For me the basis of this "argument" is saturation. It's not debatable if it will happen, but when. Naturally some will be right, some will be wrong. I can't be held to the arguments of others who essentially made different assessments from me on that saturation point. I think I already addressed the topic of AC being a potential outlier, including its alignment with Corona. The only thing to outline here is that I don't expect many (if any) system sellers of the kind we've seen already going forward in the next 3 years and thus I don't think numbers will maintain their current level next fiscal year, meanwhile you and others in this thread feel the opposite. I will keep my eyes peeled for the next AC size system seller


_None of this counters my point. The specific quarter Pokemon Sun and Moon was released was actually down 1m compared to Q3 of the year prior. The point is simply don't expect returning franchises to boost or sustain hardware levels to that  seen at the systems peak when said franchises first landed.



Otter said:

_For me the basis of this "argument" is saturation. It's not debatable if it will happen, but when. Naturally some will be right, some will be wrong. I can't be held to the arguments of others who essentially made different assessments from me on that saturation point. I think I already addressed the topic of AC being a potential outlier, including its alignment with Corona. The only thing to outline here is that I don't expect many (if any) system sellers of the kind we've seen already going forward in the next 3 years and thus I don't think numbers will maintain their current level next fiscal year, meanwhile you and others in this thread feel the opposite. I will keep my eyes peeled for the next AC size system seller


_None of this counters my point. The specific quarter Pokemon Sun and Moon was released was actually down 1m compared to Q3 of the year prior. The point is simply don't expect returning franchises to boost or sustain hardware levels to that  seen at the systems peak when said franchises first landed.

You're incorrect as that quarter was up from the prior Nintendo themselves reported the quarter was up 10% this counters your point

https://www.polygon.com/2017/1/31/14454408/pokemon-sun-moon-sales-nintendo-3ds-future

"Nintendo reported sales of 6.45 million 3DS units during its third fiscal quarter, a figure that was up 10 percent year-over-year. The quarter included the release of two limited-edition models of the 3DS, which sold out instantly; it remains hard to find 3DS systems in stores."

This shows a returning franchise had a boost to the point the platform did better than the prior FY and this was during a period when it was being replaced as well NS had already been revealed and in the following year 3DS still matched it's prior FY this goes against what you're trying to say.

The thing is you're repeating the same argument of others that's why someone pointed out that it's been parroted for years now the argument just gets adjusted from hindsight to be reissued again this time next year someone else will be using the same argument.



Wyrdness said:
Otter said:

_For me the basis of this "argument" is saturation. It's not debatable if it will happen, but when. Naturally some will be right, some will be wrong. I can't be held to the arguments of others who essentially made different assessments from me on that saturation point. I think I already addressed the topic of AC being a potential outlier, including its alignment with Corona. The only thing to outline here is that I don't expect many (if any) system sellers of the kind we've seen already going forward in the next 3 years and thus I don't think numbers will maintain their current level next fiscal year, meanwhile you and others in this thread feel the opposite. I will keep my eyes peeled for the next AC size system seller


_None of this counters my point. The specific quarter Pokemon Sun and Moon was released was actually down 1m compared to Q3 of the year prior. The point is simply don't expect returning franchises to boost or sustain hardware levels to that  seen at the systems peak when said franchises first landed.

You're incorrect as that quarter was up from the prior Nintendo themselves reported the quarter was up 10% this counters your point

https://www.polygon.com/2017/1/31/14454408/pokemon-sun-moon-sales-nintendo-3ds-future

"Nintendo reported sales of 6.45 million 3DS units during its third fiscal quarter, a figure that was up 10 percent year-over-year. The quarter included the release of two limited-edition models of the 3DS, which sold out instantly; it remains hard to find 3DS systems in stores."

This shows a returning franchise had a boost to the point the platform did better than the prior FY and this was during a period when it was being replaced as well NS had already been revealed and in the following year 3DS still matched it's prior FY this goes against what you're trying to say.

The thing is you're repeating the same argument of others that's why someone pointed out that it's been parroted for years now the argument just gets adjusted from hindsight to be reissued again this time next year someone else will be using the same argument.

Oh sorry, my mistake, I was comparing the wrong quarters 

Interesting, the quarter before Sun/Moon was up even a higher percentage YOY. Pokemon Go alone lifted 3DS hardware

"Although Pokémon Go itself isn't a Nintendo game, the company said the ubiquitous smartphone app drove sales of 3DS hardware up 19 percent as well as sales of earlier Pokémon games for the platform. "

https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/26/13414878/nintendo-earnings-q2-2016-switch

This still remains. "The point is simply don't expect returning franchises to boost or sustain hardware levels to that  seen at the systems peak when said franchises first landed."

Pokemon X/Y 2013
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 12m
Pokemon Omega Ruby/Sapphiere

Pokemon Omega Ruby/Sapphire 2014
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 8.7m


Pokemon Sun/Moon 2016 
3DS hardware FY ending march 2017; 7m


Even if you feel like blaiming the Switch impending arrival you could just look at the Pokemon Omega Ruby/Sapphire FY year

Its mind numbing that I'm having to make this argument so I will stop lol. If you think the Switch will sell 20m for the next 3 years due to returning franchises, i can only say lets see. I don't see any evidence so far