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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124
bowserthedog said:
Don't see why not. It depends on how Nintendo markets the next Switch chipset. If the next more powerful system is marketed as Switch 2 than the original Switch will not reach 150m. If the new system is marketing as "New Nintendo Switch" or something like that then the Switch line will easily surpass 150m.

i got the best idea the switch color



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RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

lol your posts are always good for a laugh. 

The Switch is selling primarily off traditional Nintendo IP, no gimmicks and crap needed, so that basically blows your theory about everything having to be like the Wii to sell. No it doesn't. The Switch is doing just fine and is not needing to be carried by a casual audience. 

The Playstation 4 is going to sell, what 130 million+ units? I doubt Sony really gives two shits what you think, lol. They make more money off probably PSN alone than what anyone else is making from their entire game division. 

You still don't understand that "like the Wii" doesn't mean exactly like the Wii. One key point of being "like the Wii" is being an alternative to the AAA rubbish the industry churns out and Switch certainly fulfills that criterion. Your premise has been that Nintendo must please AAA third parties if they ever want to have a successful console again because "casuals and gimmicks" aren't going to cut it. Also, the Wii was selling primarily off traditional Nintendo IPs too. Switch's portable aspect certainly qualifies as gimmick. Switch's standard controller (Joy-Cons) is also a motion controller. Switch is very much like the Wii, but there's one big difference: The industry hasn't been able to think up anything to put it down, so the industry has mostly remained quiet about it.

The closing paragraph of my post wasn't about what Sony thinks, but what you think. You try to laugh off my post, but it doesn't reflect well on you that you didn't address the majority of my post.

It is ironic that you said in an earlier post in this thread that most people don't understand business and then here you are talking about revenue in order to claim superiority of Sony's console business.

The Switch is quite different than the Wii IMO.  The main gimmick of the Switch is offering the flexibility to take your console on the go but the focus of the system is on traditional gaming. Buttons and analog sticks. Whereas the Wii's main gimmick was to change the way video games are played and a lot of the success came for motion games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit. It attracted a different audience and many of those who bought the Wii for Wii Fit or Wii Sports didn't buy other traditional games in large volumes. 



bowserthedog said:
RolStoppable said:

You still don't understand that "like the Wii" doesn't mean exactly like the Wii. One key point of being "like the Wii" is being an alternative to the AAA rubbish the industry churns out and Switch certainly fulfills that criterion. Your premise has been that Nintendo must please AAA third parties if they ever want to have a successful console again because "casuals and gimmicks" aren't going to cut it. Also, the Wii was selling primarily off traditional Nintendo IPs too. Switch's portable aspect certainly qualifies as gimmick. Switch's standard controller (Joy-Cons) is also a motion controller. Switch is very much like the Wii, but there's one big difference: The industry hasn't been able to think up anything to put it down, so the industry has mostly remained quiet about it.

The closing paragraph of my post wasn't about what Sony thinks, but what you think. You try to laugh off my post, but it doesn't reflect well on you that you didn't address the majority of my post.

It is ironic that you said in an earlier post in this thread that most people don't understand business and then here you are talking about revenue in order to claim superiority of Sony's console business.

The Switch is quite different than the Wii IMO.  The main gimmick of the Switch is offering the flexibility to take your console on the go but the focus of the system is on traditional gaming. Buttons and analog sticks. Whereas the Wii's main gimmick was to change the way video games are played and a lot of the success came for motion games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit. It attracted a different audience and many of those who bought the Wii for Wii Fit or Wii Sports didn't buy other traditional games in large volumes. 

Correct all you have to do is look up the top software sales of each console 



bowserthedog said:
RolStoppable said:

You still don't understand that "like the Wii" doesn't mean exactly like the Wii. One key point of being "like the Wii" is being an alternative to the AAA rubbish the industry churns out and Switch certainly fulfills that criterion. Your premise has been that Nintendo must please AAA third parties if they ever want to have a successful console again because "casuals and gimmicks" aren't going to cut it. Also, the Wii was selling primarily off traditional Nintendo IPs too. Switch's portable aspect certainly qualifies as gimmick. Switch's standard controller (Joy-Cons) is also a motion controller. Switch is very much like the Wii, but there's one big difference: The industry hasn't been able to think up anything to put it down, so the industry has mostly remained quiet about it.

The closing paragraph of my post wasn't about what Sony thinks, but what you think. You try to laugh off my post, but it doesn't reflect well on you that you didn't address the majority of my post.

It is ironic that you said in an earlier post in this thread that most people don't understand business and then here you are talking about revenue in order to claim superiority of Sony's console business.

The Switch is quite different than the Wii IMO.  The main gimmick of the Switch is offering the flexibility to take your console on the go but the focus of the system is on traditional gaming. Buttons and analog sticks. Whereas the Wii's main gimmick was to change the way video games are played and a lot of the success came for motion games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit. It attracted a different audience and many of those who bought the Wii for Wii Fit or Wii Sports didn't buy other traditional games in large volumes. 

Agreed. The Switch has as much of the DNA as the N64 for instance as any other Nintendo platform. 

You can remove Ring Fit from the Switch and sales would basically be the same and it was already a proven success long before that released. 



RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

lol your posts are always good for a laugh. 

The Switch is selling primarily off traditional Nintendo IP, no gimmicks and crap needed, so that basically blows your theory about everything having to be like the Wii to sell. No it doesn't. The Switch is doing just fine and is not needing to be carried by a casual audience. 

The Playstation 4 is going to sell, what 130 million+ units? I doubt Sony really gives two shits what you think, lol. They make more money off probably PSN alone than what anyone else is making from their entire game division. 

You still don't understand that "like the Wii" doesn't mean exactly like the Wii. One key point of being "like the Wii" is being an alternative to the AAA rubbish the industry churns out and Switch certainly fulfills that criterion. Your premise has been that Nintendo must please AAA third parties if they ever want to have a successful console again because "casuals and gimmicks" aren't going to cut it. Also, the Wii was selling primarily off traditional Nintendo IPs too. Switch's portable aspect certainly qualifies as gimmick. Switch's standard controller (Joy-Cons) is also a motion controller. Switch is very much like the Wii, but there's one big difference: The industry hasn't been able to think up anything to put it down, so the industry has mostly remained quiet about it.

The closing paragraph of my post wasn't about what Sony thinks, but what you think. You try to laugh off my post, but it doesn't reflect well on you that you didn't address the majority of my post.

It is ironic that you said in an earlier post in this thread that most people don't understand business and then here you are talking about revenue in order to claim superiority of Sony's console business.

Sony's console business is doing great, like you're going to argue that with a straight face? lol. Good luck with that. 

The DS had two 30+ million selling years, that basically means it wipes out two of the Switch's 20 million years and throws another 20 million gap onto the Switch from those two years alone. That gap has to be made up and that's pretty tough.

That means very late in its product cycle, when its much harder its basically going to have to make up for a 20-30 million unit gap which isn't going to be easy. It's easier to make up ground when a platform is younger, asking it to do it in the back years is likely asking an 70 year old to bench press something that would be difficult for a 28 year old, its asking for a lot. 

No one knows if that can happen so claiming definitively is pointless. At year 3 not many would've guessed the Wii would crater the way it did, even the 3DS decline in year 4 was odd because it's not like they didn't release good games. It got Smash Brothers + Pokemon Ruby Sapphire Omega Alpha + New 3DS revision and yet sales went down notably from the level of the previous 3 years which shouldn't have happened.



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I mean to illustrate, lets assume the Switch sells 21-22 mill this fiscal year and an even higher 23 million. And it even has pretty good holds after that. The DS is still pretty hard to catch.

Year 0 (should be noted DS had more time Nov 04-March 05, vs. March 17 for Switch)
Switch - 2.74m
DS - 5.27m

Year 1 (2017-18 for Switch)
Switch - 15.05m
DS - 11.46m

Year 2 (2018-19 for Switch) -
Switch - 16.95
DS - 23.56m

Year 3 (2019-20 for Switch) -
Switch - 22m guesstimate
DS - 30.13m

Year 4 (2020-21 for Switch) -
Switch - 23m guesstimate
DS - 31.18m

Year 5 (2021-22) -
Switch - 19m (guesstimate)
DS - 27m

Year 6 (2022-23) -
Switch - 14.5m (guesstimate)
DS - 17.52m

= Approx 113 mill for Switch
146 million for DS

Means Nintendo has to sell an extra 37-38 million in years 7 (2023-24), 8 (2024-25), and 9 (2025-26) to get to 150m. That's about 12 mill/year. The odds of Nintendo not having a Switch sucessor by 2024 at least are low too. 

The DS having three years of 30m, 31m, and 27m is murderer's row, you're not likely to see a hardware platform ever do that again, so to make that up it means you have to ask a platform very late in its product cycle to perform very heavy lifting.

Now some miracle can happen like a new IP becoming the next Pokemon or something, but no one can really predict that. To beat/match the DS you really need to have a large lead over it in the early years, because realistically the Switch is not putting up three years of 30/31/27, no system can do that. That 27 is a real kick in the balls too, because it eats up a valuable 5th year for you to gain ground with, its not like they had two 30 mill years and then dropped down hard, 27m is I believe is still higher than the highest peak the Wii got to, lol. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 29 April 2020

Soundwave said:
bowserthedog said:

The Switch is quite different than the Wii IMO.  The main gimmick of the Switch is offering the flexibility to take your console on the go but the focus of the system is on traditional gaming. Buttons and analog sticks. Whereas the Wii's main gimmick was to change the way video games are played and a lot of the success came for motion games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit. It attracted a different audience and many of those who bought the Wii for Wii Fit or Wii Sports didn't buy other traditional games in large volumes. 

Agreed. The Switch has as much of the DNA as the N64 for instance as any other Nintendo platform. 

Revolutionary games thanks to high power v revolutionary games despite low power???

You can remove Ring Fit from the Switch and sales would basically be the same and it was already a proven success long before that released. 

Yeah, 10m sellers don't boost hardware sales.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Soundwave said:

I
has to sell an extra 37-38 million in years 7 (2023-24), 8 (2024-25), and 9 (2025-26) to get to 150m. That's about 12 mill/year. The odds of Nintendo not having a Switch sucessor by 2024 at least are low too. 

The DS having three years of 30m, 31m, and 27m is murderer's row, you're not likely to see a hardware platform ever do that again, so to make that up it means you have to ask a platform very late in its product cycle to perform very heavy lifting.

Now some miracle can happen like a new IP becoming the next Pokemon or something, but no one can really predict that. To beat/match the DS you really need to have a large lead over it in the early years, because realistically the Switch is not putting up three years of 30/31/27, no system can do that. That 27 is a real kick in the balls too, because it eats up a valuable 5th year for you to gain ground with, its not like they had two 30 mill years and then dropped down hard, 27m is I believe is still higher than the highest peak the Wii got to, lol. 


how about a more balanced life cycle with longevity?

Prediction Nintendo NSW

FY1 2.74m
FY2 15.05m (17.79m)
FY3 16.95m (34.74m)
FY4 20.76m (55.50m)
FY5 23.00m (78.50m)
FY6 20.00m (98.50m) [New Model]
FY7 18.00m (116.50m) [Price cut]
FY8 14.50m (131.00m)
FY9 12.00m (143.00m)
F10 and lifetime (150.00m)

I know you don’t believe in a system selling so long but it doesn’t have to peak up to 30mil to catch the DS, how many years did the ps2 hit over 25mil? Also ps4 will end roughly between 125-135mil lifetime. NSW could be ahead of that aligned by next year 



tbone51 said:
Soundwave said:

I
has to sell an extra 37-38 million in years 7 (2023-24), 8 (2024-25), and 9 (2025-26) to get to 150m. That's about 12 mill/year. The odds of Nintendo not having a Switch sucessor by 2024 at least are low too. 

The DS having three years of 30m, 31m, and 27m is murderer's row, you're not likely to see a hardware platform ever do that again, so to make that up it means you have to ask a platform very late in its product cycle to perform very heavy lifting.

Now some miracle can happen like a new IP becoming the next Pokemon or something, but no one can really predict that. To beat/match the DS you really need to have a large lead over it in the early years, because realistically the Switch is not putting up three years of 30/31/27, no system can do that. That 27 is a real kick in the balls too, because it eats up a valuable 5th year for you to gain ground with, its not like they had two 30 mill years and then dropped down hard, 27m is I believe is still higher than the highest peak the Wii got to, lol. 


how about a more balanced life cycle with longevity?

Prediction Nintendo NSW

FY1 2.74m
FY2 15.05m (17.79m)
FY3 16.95m (34.74m)
FY4 20.76m (55.50m)
FY5 23.00m (78.50m)
FY6 20.00m (98.50m) [New Model]
FY7 18.00m (116.50m) [Price cut]
FY8 14.50m (131.00m)
FY9 12.00m (143.00m)
F10 and lifetime (150.00m)

I know you don’t believe in a system selling so long but it doesn’t have to peak up to 30mil to catch the DS, how many years did the ps2 hit over 25mil? Also ps4 will end roughly between 125-135mil lifetime. NSW could be ahead of that aligned by next year 

18, 14, and 12m in 2023, 2024, and 2025 is highly optimistic. Especially when Nintendo is unlikely to go that long without a successor. 

To keep sales at 22/22/20 lets say even for the next 3 years is going to require Nintendo to work very hard. 22/22/20 would require price cut and a new model and many, many big games (BOTW2, new Pokemon, new 2D and 3D Mario, probably a new Mario Kart as well to start with). 

And you know what? The DS still builds a massive lead even selling at that rate which is ridiculously high, 22/22/20 is better than the three best years either the Wii or PS4 put up. But against the DS' triple whammy of 30/31/27 ... even selling at that rate puts you behind by another 22-25 million and it chews up your machine's remaining "young" years and into old age. 

So now you're asking an old system that's already used up a lot of things like price cuts, revisions, and franchise catalog to have to do serious heavy lifting. Even if Switch 2 was 2024 lets say, the games for it aren't magically going to grow out of Nintendo's rear end, development will have to begin in 2021 or 2022 on the successor launch/first wave software which means development has to start winding down on Switch 1 then. 



Soundwave said:
tbone51 said:

Prediction Nintendo NSW


FY1 2.74m
FY2 15.05m (17.79m)
FY3 16.95m (34.74m)
FY4 20.76m (55.50m)
FY5 23.00m (78.50m)
FY6 20.00m (98.50m) [New Model]
FY7 18.00m (116.50m) [Price cut]
FY8 14.50m (131.00m)
FY9 12.00m (143.00m)
F10 and lifetime (150.00m)

18, 14, and 12m in 2023, 2024, and 2025 is highly optimistic. Especially when Nintendo is unlikely to go that long without a successor. 

-Unlikely? Maybe but then again you think going by history that NSW will end it’s life cycle by that time. This is the first time Nintendo is supporting a unified platform. 

To keep sales at 22/22/20 lets say even for the next 3 years is going to require Nintendo to work very hard. 22/22/20 would require price cut and a new model and many, many big games (BOTW2, new Pokemon, new 2D and 3D Mario, probably a new Mario Kart as well to start with). 

-2020 doesnt even need much, it’s already at such a high demand, possibly higher than shortages during 2017. Nintendoncan delay most of its schedule and a few hitters  (paper Mario/3D Mario collection/3DW port) and be fine.

-2021- Could be excellent with software and still not need a price cut. Don’t forget there are many and I mean many mid tier franchises missing on NSW. It has the handheld library now and the evergreens will keep selling. I think another model is more likely here than a price cut (+Zelda anniversary year)

-2022-heavy bundles, more sequels and itll be in a better value situation then xsx and ps5 2nd year on the market due to price difference.


And you know what? The DS still builds a massive lead even selling at that rate which is ridiculously high, 22/22/20 is better than the three best years either the Wii or PS4 put up. But against the DS' triple whammy of 30/31/27 ... even selling at that rate puts you behind by another 22-25 million and it chews up your machine's remaining "young" years and into old age. 

-This is your opinion, PS4 never had any year sold more than 21mil and yet it’ll end up only behind by 20-25mil (from 150mil) sales curves are different for all hardware. Look at x360 in the US for ex

So now you're asking an old system that's already used up a lot of things like price cuts, revisions, and franchise catalog to have to do serious heavy lifting. Even if Switch 2 was 2024 lets say, the games for it aren't magically going to grow out of Nintendo's rear end, development will have to begin in 2021 or 2022 on the successor launch/first wave software which means development has to start winding down on Switch 1 then. 

-Evergreens/price cut/1 more model/ and many games that still can come out yes I do believe. Also believe a NSW2 isn’t needed before 2024. It’s not competing with Sony directly. It’s its own thing.