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Soundwave on 29 April 2020
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tbone51 said:
Soundwave said:

I
has to sell an extra 37-38 million in years 7 (2023-24), 8 (2024-25), and 9 (2025-26) to get to 150m. That's about 12 mill/year. The odds of Nintendo not having a Switch sucessor by 2024 at least are low too. 

The DS having three years of 30m, 31m, and 27m is murderer's row, you're not likely to see a hardware platform ever do that again, so to make that up it means you have to ask a platform very late in its product cycle to perform very heavy lifting.

Now some miracle can happen like a new IP becoming the next Pokemon or something, but no one can really predict that. To beat/match the DS you really need to have a large lead over it in the early years, because realistically the Switch is not putting up three years of 30/31/27, no system can do that. That 27 is a real kick in the balls too, because it eats up a valuable 5th year for you to gain ground with, its not like they had two 30 mill years and then dropped down hard, 27m is I believe is still higher than the highest peak the Wii got to, lol. 


how about a more balanced life cycle with longevity?

Prediction Nintendo NSW

FY1 2.74m
FY2 15.05m (17.79m)
FY3 16.95m (34.74m)
FY4 20.76m (55.50m)
FY5 23.00m (78.50m)
FY6 20.00m (98.50m) [New Model]
FY7 18.00m (116.50m) [Price cut]
FY8 14.50m (131.00m)
FY9 12.00m (143.00m)
F10 and lifetime (150.00m)

I know you don’t believe in a system selling so long but it doesn’t have to peak up to 30mil to catch the DS, how many years did the ps2 hit over 25mil? Also ps4 will end roughly between 125-135mil lifetime. NSW could be ahead of that aligned by next year 

18, 14, and 12m in 2023, 2024, and 2025 is highly optimistic. Especially when Nintendo is unlikely to go that long without a successor. 

To keep sales at 22/22/20 lets say even for the next 3 years is going to require Nintendo to work very hard. 22/22/20 would require price cut and a new model and many, many big games (BOTW2, new Pokemon, new 2D and 3D Mario, probably a new Mario Kart as well to start with). 

And you know what? The DS still builds a massive lead even selling at that rate which is ridiculously high, 22/22/20 is better than the three best years either the Wii or PS4 put up. But against the DS' triple whammy of 30/31/27 ... even selling at that rate puts you behind by another 22-25 million and it chews up your machine's remaining "young" years and into old age. 

So now you're asking an old system that's already used up a lot of things like price cuts, revisions, and franchise catalog to have to do serious heavy lifting. Even if Switch 2 was 2024 lets say, the games for it aren't magically going to grow out of Nintendo's rear end, development will have to begin in 2021 or 2022 on the successor launch/first wave software which means development has to start winding down on Switch 1 then.