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tbone51 on 29 April 2020
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Soundwave said:

I
has to sell an extra 37-38 million in years 7 (2023-24), 8 (2024-25), and 9 (2025-26) to get to 150m. That's about 12 mill/year. The odds of Nintendo not having a Switch sucessor by 2024 at least are low too. 

The DS having three years of 30m, 31m, and 27m is murderer's row, you're not likely to see a hardware platform ever do that again, so to make that up it means you have to ask a platform very late in its product cycle to perform very heavy lifting.

Now some miracle can happen like a new IP becoming the next Pokemon or something, but no one can really predict that. To beat/match the DS you really need to have a large lead over it in the early years, because realistically the Switch is not putting up three years of 30/31/27, no system can do that. That 27 is a real kick in the balls too, because it eats up a valuable 5th year for you to gain ground with, its not like they had two 30 mill years and then dropped down hard, 27m is I believe is still higher than the highest peak the Wii got to, lol. 


how about a more balanced life cycle with longevity?

Prediction Nintendo NSW

FY1 2.74m
FY2 15.05m (17.79m)
FY3 16.95m (34.74m)
FY4 20.76m (55.50m)
FY5 23.00m (78.50m)
FY6 20.00m (98.50m) [New Model]
FY7 18.00m (116.50m) [Price cut]
FY8 14.50m (131.00m)
FY9 12.00m (143.00m)
F10 and lifetime (150.00m)

I know you don’t believe in a system selling so long but it doesn’t have to peak up to 30mil to catch the DS, how many years did the ps2 hit over 25mil? Also ps4 will end roughly between 125-135mil lifetime. NSW could be ahead of that aligned by next year