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tbone51 on 30 April 2020
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Soundwave said:
tbone51 said:

Prediction Nintendo NSW


FY1 2.74m
FY2 15.05m (17.79m)
FY3 16.95m (34.74m)
FY4 20.76m (55.50m)
FY5 23.00m (78.50m)
FY6 20.00m (98.50m) [New Model]
FY7 18.00m (116.50m) [Price cut]
FY8 14.50m (131.00m)
FY9 12.00m (143.00m)
F10 and lifetime (150.00m)

18, 14, and 12m in 2023, 2024, and 2025 is highly optimistic. Especially when Nintendo is unlikely to go that long without a successor. 

-Unlikely? Maybe but then again you think going by history that NSW will end it’s life cycle by that time. This is the first time Nintendo is supporting a unified platform. 

To keep sales at 22/22/20 lets say even for the next 3 years is going to require Nintendo to work very hard. 22/22/20 would require price cut and a new model and many, many big games (BOTW2, new Pokemon, new 2D and 3D Mario, probably a new Mario Kart as well to start with). 

-2020 doesnt even need much, it’s already at such a high demand, possibly higher than shortages during 2017. Nintendoncan delay most of its schedule and a few hitters  (paper Mario/3D Mario collection/3DW port) and be fine.

-2021- Could be excellent with software and still not need a price cut. Don’t forget there are many and I mean many mid tier franchises missing on NSW. It has the handheld library now and the evergreens will keep selling. I think another model is more likely here than a price cut (+Zelda anniversary year)

-2022-heavy bundles, more sequels and itll be in a better value situation then xsx and ps5 2nd year on the market due to price difference.


And you know what? The DS still builds a massive lead even selling at that rate which is ridiculously high, 22/22/20 is better than the three best years either the Wii or PS4 put up. But against the DS' triple whammy of 30/31/27 ... even selling at that rate puts you behind by another 22-25 million and it chews up your machine's remaining "young" years and into old age. 

-This is your opinion, PS4 never had any year sold more than 21mil and yet it’ll end up only behind by 20-25mil (from 150mil) sales curves are different for all hardware. Look at x360 in the US for ex

So now you're asking an old system that's already used up a lot of things like price cuts, revisions, and franchise catalog to have to do serious heavy lifting. Even if Switch 2 was 2024 lets say, the games for it aren't magically going to grow out of Nintendo's rear end, development will have to begin in 2021 or 2022 on the successor launch/first wave software which means development has to start winding down on Switch 1 then. 

-Evergreens/price cut/1 more model/ and many games that still can come out yes I do believe. Also believe a NSW2 isn’t needed before 2024. It’s not competing with Sony directly. It’s its own thing.