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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124
Bofferbrauer2 on 30 April 2020
Soundwave said:

The Playstation 4 is going to sell, what 130 million+ units? I doubt Sony really gives two shits about someone talking down their success in the business lol. Their network services have years where they're making more than XBox or Nintendo's entire game divisions. They're probably doing something right. 

130M+? Not like this.

PS4 sales are way down already from last year, and continue to drop fast. Unless the PS5 is a massive flop at launch which makes people buy the current gen instead, the PS4 won't get past 125M. At the end of the year the console will be at around 116M with sales dropping fast and that will just accelerate with the arrival of the PS5, especially with the latter being backwards compatible, thus eliminating the need to buy a PS4 for PS4 games.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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tbone51 on 30 April 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Soundwave said:

The Playstation 4 is going to sell, what 130 million+ units? I doubt Sony really gives two shits about someone talking down their success in the business lol. Their network services have years where they're making more than XBox or Nintendo's entire game divisions. They're probably doing something right. 

130M+? Not like this.

PS4 sales are way down already from last year, and continue to drop fast. Unless the PS5 is a massive flop at launch which makes people buy the current gen instead, the PS4 won't get past 125M. At the end of the year the console will be at around 116M with sales dropping fast and that will just accelerate with the arrival of the PS5, especially with the latter being backwards compatible, thus eliminating the need to buy a PS4 for PS4 games.

Actually disagree, it’s slowing down yes, but I think ps4 will sell alongside ps5 for the first 2 years especially if it’s msrp is roughly $500. Sony does extremely well with there services and they’ll maintain both with 2 consoles selling on the market with ps5 slowly gaining traction afterwards. Most games will be multiplat with a couple huge hits only on ps5. I can see a price cut down the line, possibly before holiday this year.  I could be wrong though lol



tbone51 on 30 April 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said

.

Switch is the first console in history that lasted a full three years without a price cut. It's also unique because it has a primary SKU (hybrid) and a secondary SKU (Lite) which complement each other, so it isn't hard for Nintendo to sell multiple Switch consoles to the same household. Nintendo says that they intend for Switch to have a long lifecycle, but words alone obviously mean nothing. What's important are their actions and up till now their actions have fully backed up their words. Switch has multiple price cuts, revisions and value-added bundles in combination with a healthy software pipeline ahead of it, that's why it is reasonable to expect a prolonged sales plateau instead of the rather quick decline you have proposed in your follow-up post.

Just wanted to point out on the first console to not have a price cut, it’s also amazing how the NSW is nearly impossible to get at the moment and even without knowing the lineup for the rest of the year, I don’t see a need to cut the price anytime soon. As in this year and possibly next. It’s not slowing down anytime soon



Bofferbrauer2 on 30 April 2020
tbone51 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

130M+? Not like this.

PS4 sales are way down already from last year, and continue to drop fast. Unless the PS5 is a massive flop at launch which makes people buy the current gen instead, the PS4 won't get past 125M. At the end of the year the console will be at around 116M with sales dropping fast and that will just accelerate with the arrival of the PS5, especially with the latter being backwards compatible, thus eliminating the need to buy a PS4 for PS4 games.

Actually disagree, it’s slowing down yes, but I think ps4 will sell alongside ps5 for the first 2 years especially if it’s msrp is roughly $500. Sony does extremely well with there services and they’ll maintain both with 2 consoles selling on the market with ps5 slowly gaining traction afterwards. Most games will be multiplat with a couple huge hits only on ps5. I can see a price cut down the line, possibly before holiday this year.  I could be wrong though lol

I don't think the PS4 will sell more than 9M this year. That's already a steep drop despite having some very heavy hitters. From there, I calculated 5M for 2021 and 3-4M for 2022+, so a maximum of 125M. And when I did that, I already took the $500-550 price tag into account.

The reason I'm not going higher is because the market will be flooded with second hand PS4 either way. When the PS3 came out, there weren't enough second hand units for everyone, so sales stayed up in industrialized countries while the developing countries just started releasing the console around those times, thus keeping it's sales up.

Hence why I compare the sales rather with the ones from the PS3 when the PS4 launched. And those went as follows:

  • 8.2M in 2013 (PS4 launch year)
  • 3.5M in 2014
  • 2M in 2015-2017 combined

So compare that to my prediction for the PS4:

  • 9M in 2020 (PS5 launch year)
  • 5M in 2021
  • 3-4M 2022-2025

and you'll see I actually gave the console quite a bit longer legs than the PS3 had.

And that's the reason why I believe 125M is the limit for the PS4, it's already following a very similar direction just before the launch of the next gen as it's predecessor did, and I don't see why the PS4 should do differently than the pS3 did. Because of big game releases maybe? Well, the PS3 got GTA V, Beyond: Two Souls, Gran Tourismo 6, Final Fantasy XIV and The Last of Us to name just a few heavy hitters the year the PS4 got released, so I don't see any advantage for the PS4 on that front either.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

fedfed on 30 April 2020

it will double up what did so far.



Switch!!!

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Pyro as Bill on 30 April 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

Sony's console business is doing great, like you're going to argue that with a straight face? lol. Good luck with that. 

The DS had two 30+ million selling years, that basically means it wipes out two of the Switch's 20 million years and throws another 20 million gap onto the Switch from those two years alone. That gap has to be made up and that's pretty tough.

That means very late in its product cycle, when its much harder its basically going to have to make up for a 20-30 million unit gap which isn't going to be easy. It's easier to make up ground when a platform is younger, asking it to do it in the back years is likely asking an 70 year old to bench press something that would be difficult for a 28 year old, its asking for a lot. 

No one knows if that can happen so claiming definitively is pointless. At year 3 not many would've guessed the Wii would crater the way it did, even the 3DS decline in year 4 was odd because it's not like they didn't release good games. It got Smash Brothers + Pokemon Ruby Sapphire Omega Alpha + New 3DS revision and yet sales went down notably from the level of the previous 3 years which shouldn't have happened.

Read what I said instead of coming up with a straw man argument. Nintendo's console business is doing better than Sony's and it's easy to back that up. For one, Sony had to exit the market for portable consoles which in turn ceded a monopoly to Nintendo. And two, Switch is outperforming the PS4 in profits when launch-aligned.

There's not much of a point in bringing up the Wii and 3DS again and again. Switch is 38 months old and at the same point in time it was crystal clear that the Wii wouldn't get respectable third party support for the remainder of its life, plus its sales had be trending downwards for about a year. At the same point in time the 3DS had been repeatedly aided by price cuts and revisions - a big sign for a troubled platform - and 2014 was the year where Nintendo's top development teams were focused on Wii U software; SSB for the 3DS isn't particularly impactful when the majority of gamers who buy hardware to play SSB do it for the couch multiplayer on the big screen. Neither the Wii nor 3DS scenario apply in any way, shape or form to Switch, so really, what's the point in mentioning the Wii and 3DS again?

As for the sales comparison to the DS, I explained it before why Switch is going to have a longer tail than the DS due to the sheer necessity with a one console strategy. Likewise, the one console strategy also means that we can expect more 5m+ selling games to be released in the latter half of Switch's life than for any Nintendo console before it, simply because there will be more top development teams available to make Switch software. Whether said 5m+ sellers are new IPs, IPs yet to have a Switch installment, or sequels, they'll all move hardware.

So far Nintendo has operated their Switch business without hurry, leaving it up to the market to decide the shelf life of the console, unlike with the Wii and DS where they rushed out successors to beat their competitors to the market. Rushing out those successors made especially the Wii suffer which resulted in a poor first party release schedule in 2011 and 2012, followed by nothing at all in 2013. Most people put the cart before the horse and believe that a Wii successor had to happen in 2012 because of declining Wii sales, but the reason why Wii sales declined so fast was because Nintendo wanted to launch a successor in 2012 with no consideration for the actual demand of its customers. Many of the early Wii U games might as well have been Wii games, but Nintendo was hellbent on getting a new console out.

Switch is the first console in history that lasted a full three years without a price cut. It's also unique because it has a primary SKU (hybrid) and a secondary SKU (Lite) which complement each other, so it isn't hard for Nintendo to sell multiple Switch consoles to the same household. Nintendo says that they intend for Switch to have a long lifecycle, but words alone obviously mean nothing. What's important are their actions and up till now their actions have fully backed up their words. Switch has multiple price cuts, revisions and value-added bundles in combination with a healthy software pipeline ahead of it, that's why it is reasonable to expect a prolonged sales plateau instead of the rather quick decline you have proposed in your follow-up post.

All those paragraphs and detailed explanations are too complex.

If you can't sum up the console business with a simple sporting analogy then your analysis is probably wrong.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Soundwave on 30 April 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Soundwave said:

The Playstation 4 is going to sell, what 130 million+ units? I doubt Sony really gives two shits about someone talking down their success in the business lol. Their network services have years where they're making more than XBox or Nintendo's entire game divisions. They're probably doing something right. 

130M+? Not like this.

PS4 sales are way down already from last year, and continue to drop fast. Unless the PS5 is a massive flop at launch which makes people buy the current gen instead, the PS4 won't get past 125M. At the end of the year the console will be at around 116M with sales dropping fast and that will just accelerate with the arrival of the PS5, especially with the latter being backwards compatible, thus eliminating the need to buy a PS4 for PS4 games.

PS5 is also likely going to be $500 and PS4 probably eventually gets cut to $250. The next-gen consoles are not going to be cheap. 

If you don't want to spend that kind of money for a dedicated home console for all the modern types of games, PS4 is still quite attractive and will likely have major cross platform titles well into 2022. Like Square-Enix has already said Final Fantasy VII Remake Part II will be for sure on the original PS4 among other systems. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 30 April 2020

Soundwave on 30 April 2020

Even the next two years, keeping sales 20+ million is not some easy given. That will require Nintendo to expend a lot of heavy hitter software titles to maintain sales and a price cut and likely another model revision on top of that just for that period and even that may not be enough.

When the Wii peaked at 25.9 million after its 2nd full fiscal year on the market, Nintendo did do two price cuts, several new bundles, a revision eventually, and still had multiple big gun games ... a price cut in Sept '09, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Just Dance breaking out, DKC Returns, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Wii Party, another price cut to $149.99 about 18 months later ... sales still steadily declined every year from that point on by over 5 million units a year for the next couple of years from approx 26m to 20.8m to 15m ... these are not small drops. 

The 3DS was still doing pretty OK in fiscal year 3 with about 12.24 million in sales ... you wouldn't expect it to crater in a year to 8.84 million so quickly. Looking at that you would say "well Nintendo probably didn't support the system much, right?", but that's not really right, the 3DS got the New 3DS revision that year plus Super Smash Bros. plus Pokemon Sapphire/Ruby remakes, got Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate, Tomodachi Life, Mario Golf, Kirby Super Deluxe that's not a thin year at all.

Downward momentum can shift against a platform even one that's getting software support, new models, price drops, etc. It happens all the time. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 30 April 2020

tbone51 on 30 April 2020
Soundwave said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

PS5 is also likely going to be $500 and PS4 probably eventually gets cut to $250. The next-gen consoles are not going to be cheap. 

See you believe in ps4 still selling... why can’t you have any faith in some NSW :P

Soundwave said:

Even the next two years, keeping sales 20+ million is not some easy given. That will require Nintendo to expend a lot of heavy hitters to maintain sales and a price cut and likely another model revision on top of that just for that period and even that may not be enough.

Downward momentum can shift against a platform even one that's getting software support, new models, price drops, etc. It happens all the time.

Are you not seeing what everyone else is seeing? Maybe your right on Y6 and beyond but this FY4 demand is thru the roof and it’s selling out. No price cut needed, in fact no software or anything crazy is needed for this quarter and sales are gonna sky rocket, then when good software start pouring in for July-March (rumored Mario games including port of 3DW / collection of 3D? / Paper Mario) itll maintain high sales. It’ll do well over 20mil this FY.

Following next FY the delayed games will probably fit well into year 2021. This can include the awaiting BotW2, other IPs such as Metroid/Tomodachi/etc to come. I believe a new model will come out that year but NSW still won’t need a price cut. Ps5/xsx will be $500 and ps4 will sell a good amount but won’t effect NSW 



Soundwave on 30 April 2020
tbone51 said:
Soundwave said:

PS5 is also likely going to be $500 and PS4 probably eventually gets cut to $250. The next-gen consoles are not going to be cheap. 

See you believe in ps4 still selling... why can’t you have any faith in some NSW :P

Soundwave said:

Even the next two years, keeping sales 20+ million is not some easy given. That will require Nintendo to expend a lot of heavy hitters to maintain sales and a price cut and likely another model revision on top of that just for that period and even that may not be enough.

Downward momentum can shift against a platform even one that's getting software support, new models, price drops, etc. It happens all the time.

Are you not seeing what everyone else is seeing? Maybe your right on Y6 and beyond but this FY4 demand is thru the roof and it’s selling out. No price cut needed, in fact no software or anything crazy is needed for this quarter and sales are gonna sky rocket, then when good software start pouring in for July-March (rumored Mario games including port of 3DW / collection of 3D? / Paper Mario) itll maintain high sales. It’ll do well over 20mil this FY.

Following next FY the delayed games will probably fit well into year 2021. This can include the awaiting BotW2, other IPs such as Metroid/Tomodachi/etc to come. I believe a new model will come out that year but NSW still won’t need a price cut. Ps5/xsx will be $500 and ps4 will sell a good amount but won’t effect NSW 

No one is asking the PS4 to sell 40 million more units though, lol, if that was the ask I would say just as well that's unlikely to happen. 

It'll have a few more years where it probably sells 5-7 million units and then fizzles out. 

My point is there is no 1:1 correlative effect between simply releasing new games and even price cuts + new models and sales being gaurunteed to stay at the same level year after year.

NSMB Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, DKC Returns, Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid Other M, Zelda: SS, Wii Party, Just Dance, plus the price going from $250 to $200 and then to $150 are not small scale releases for instance, Wii sales shouldn't have declined like that. Super Smash Bros and Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire Remakes are huge ass releases plus New 3DS model revision ... yet sales could not only maintain themsleves they declined heavily. 

There is no golden rule that guarantees high sales because you release high profile games and cut your price and/or release revisions whatsoever. The Wii and 3DS got price cuts/new models and several huge new games and still suffered large YoY drops as they got past their third year on market. That shouldn't be possible using the logic that big new games + price drops + new model revisions/bundles keep sales high indefinitely. People throw that around way too loosely here like "don't worry its gaurunteed they keep sales at the same level for several years no problem, they'll just release a third Mario game and a Metroid plus a price cut here" ... it's not anywhere near that simple in reality. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 30 April 2020