Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

[Bofferbrauer2]

tbone51 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

130M+? Not like this.

PS4 sales are way down already from last year, and continue to drop fast. Unless the PS5 is a massive flop at launch which makes people buy the current gen instead, the PS4 won't get past 125M. At the end of the year the console will be at around 116M with sales dropping fast and that will just accelerate with the arrival of the PS5, especially with the latter being backwards compatible, thus eliminating the need to buy a PS4 for PS4 games.

Actually disagree, it’s slowing down yes, but I think ps4 will sell alongside ps5 for the first 2 years especially if it’s msrp is roughly $500. Sony does extremely well with there services and they’ll maintain both with 2 consoles selling on the market with ps5 slowly gaining traction afterwards. Most games will be multiplat with a couple huge hits only on ps5. I can see a price cut down the line, possibly before holiday this year.  I could be wrong though lol

I don't think the PS4 will sell more than 9M this year. That's already a steep drop despite having some very heavy hitters. From there, I calculated 5M for 2021 and 3-4M for 2022+, so a maximum of 125M. And when I did that, I already took the $500-550 price tag into account.

The reason I'm not going higher is because the market will be flooded with second hand PS4 either way. When the PS3 came out, there weren't enough second hand units for everyone, so sales stayed up in industrialized countries while the developing countries just started releasing the console around those times, thus keeping it's sales up.

Hence why I compare the sales rather with the ones from the PS3 when the PS4 launched. And those went as follows:

• 8.2M in 2013 (PS4 launch year)
• 3.5M in 2014
• 2M in 2015-2017 combined

So compare that to my prediction for the PS4:

• 9M in 2020 (PS5 launch year)
• 5M in 2021
• 3-4M 2022-2025

and you'll see I actually gave the console quite a bit longer legs than the PS3 had.

And that's the reason why I believe 125M is the limit for the PS4, it's already following a very similar direction just before the launch of the next gen as it's predecessor did, and I don't see why the PS4 should do differently than the pS3 did. Because of big game releases maybe? Well, the PS3 got GTA V, Beyond: Two Souls, Gran Tourismo 6, Final Fantasy XIV and The Last of Us to name just a few heavy hitters the year the PS4 got released, so I don't see any advantage for the PS4 on that front either.