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Soundwave on 30 April 2020
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tbone51 said:
Soundwave said:

PS5 is also likely going to be $500 and PS4 probably eventually gets cut to $250. The next-gen consoles are not going to be cheap. 

See you believe in ps4 still selling... why can’t you have any faith in some NSW :P

Soundwave said:

Even the next two years, keeping sales 20+ million is not some easy given. That will require Nintendo to expend a lot of heavy hitters to maintain sales and a price cut and likely another model revision on top of that just for that period and even that may not be enough.

Downward momentum can shift against a platform even one that's getting software support, new models, price drops, etc. It happens all the time.

Are you not seeing what everyone else is seeing? Maybe your right on Y6 and beyond but this FY4 demand is thru the roof and it’s selling out. No price cut needed, in fact no software or anything crazy is needed for this quarter and sales are gonna sky rocket, then when good software start pouring in for July-March (rumored Mario games including port of 3DW / collection of 3D? / Paper Mario) itll maintain high sales. It’ll do well over 20mil this FY.

Following next FY the delayed games will probably fit well into year 2021. This can include the awaiting BotW2, other IPs such as Metroid/Tomodachi/etc to come. I believe a new model will come out that year but NSW still won’t need a price cut. Ps5/xsx will be $500 and ps4 will sell a good amount but won’t effect NSW 

No one is asking the PS4 to sell 40 million more units though, lol, if that was the ask I would say just as well that's unlikely to happen. 

It'll have a few more years where it probably sells 5-7 million units and then fizzles out. 

My point is there is no 1:1 correlative effect between simply releasing new games and even price cuts + new models and sales being gaurunteed to stay at the same level year after year.

NSMB Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, DKC Returns, Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid Other M, Zelda: SS, Wii Party, Just Dance, plus the price going from $250 to $200 and then to $150 are not small scale releases for instance, Wii sales shouldn't have declined like that. Super Smash Bros and Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire Remakes are huge ass releases plus New 3DS model revision ... yet sales could not only maintain themsleves they declined heavily. 

There is no golden rule that guarantees high sales because you release high profile games and cut your price and/or release revisions whatsoever. The Wii and 3DS got price cuts/new models and several huge new games and still suffered large YoY drops as they got past their third year on market. That shouldn't be possible using the logic that big new games + price drops + new model revisions/bundles keep sales high indefinitely. People throw that around way too loosely here like "don't worry its gaurunteed they keep sales at the same level for several years no problem, they'll just release a third Mario game and a Metroid plus a price cut here" ... it's not anywhere near that simple in reality. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 30 April 2020