The Switch still seems to have its best years to come, and will probably have 3+ years above 20 million units sold. It already have over 2.3k games, which is more games than all previous Nintendo consoles and very close to Xbox One games (2.4k) and PS4 games (2.5k games) despite being released for only 3 years. There is still yet to come and each new release makes the console more apealing than ever.

2017 was huge for PS4 because of the great exclusives it had to offer after 2016 and the launch of the Pro and the PS VR.

But Nintendo still has huge plans for the next 4 or 5 years, and not ready to give up this machine.

I think it will ultimately depend on how successful the Switch successor is. While yes the GBA and 3DS did receive excellent support in their latter years when new consoles were out I think it was mostly because Nintendo was hedging their bets as the DS and Switch were new concepts that weren't guaranteed to be successful so they had to at least partially support what they knew still worked. But yes Ninty handhelds do have excellent support for the most part.

Also I agree with your point that PS5 and Series X (more so PS5) will greatly affect Switch sales despite what many other Nintendo fans think.

Switch not hitting 100M is at this point just as probable as the PS4 staying below 110M

I think this is where your problem lies.

You expect Nintendo to replace the Switch within the next 2 years, so fall 2021 or March 2022. I can tell you right now that this won't happen. There's simply no reason for it to happen. More realistic is a fall 2023 launch of it's successor, and with a Switch+/pro/whatever you want to call it in 2021 or 2022, Nintendo could extend it's life even a bit longer than this.

Well, since you seem to be an expert on how console sales work, then what is your explanation?  Why do Nintendo consoles seem to sell less on the tail end compared to Sony consoles?  Why is it that the NES, SNES, and Gameboy all had exceptionally strong sales on the tail end?  What changed?  What are the underlying factors?

Umm what?? I don't think you understand how years work haha. There's 9 months left in this year. Meaning I'm saying it should sell at least 46 million in the next 2 years and 9 months (which includes 3 holiday seasons), which is completely realistic for the Switch. Let's say 16 million rest of this year, 18 million next year, then it starts slowing down and does 14 million in 2022...that'd put it at 102 million. I wouldn't be surprised if it does 2-4 million more than that, so that's probably a few million over 100 million, and that's just by the end of 2022! So no, "completely impossible" is not an accurate description for what I said.

If Switch 2 comes out early 2023 that might cut the Switch off at under 110 million. If Switch 2 doesn't launch until holiday 2023 or early 2024 there's a good chance Switch will hit 115/120 million. Will still probably finish 5+ million behind PS4, but saying it likely won't hit 100 million is just ridiculous and completely ignores what's going on.

My guess as to why those consoles in particular had pretty decent sales in their later years is because they were still receiving games even when the new consoles were out. On the NES at least Kirby's Adventure, Yoshi's Cookie, Contra Force, Mega Man 5, and Little Samson all came out in 1992, two years after the SNES came out. I think the SNES had a new revision released in 1997 which of course probably drove sales, and Gameboy likely had strong sales just simply because of Pokemon alone.

These days Ninty doesn't really support consoles as soon as the new one comes out, except in certain cases. N64, Wii, Wii U and GameCube all pretty much got drop like a dirty shirt in terms of support once the new console came out. The exceptions to this pattern would be 3DS and GBA since their successors, DS and Switch, weren't guaranteed successes because they were a new concept so Nintendo had to hedge their bets and still partially support the old consoles in those cases because they knew they were successful.

So I guess what's changed is the fact they Nintendo doesn't really support their consoles anymore once the successor has come out and I would imagine the same will happen to Switch unless like I said before the concept for the successor is completely different. If the console after Switch is just a Switch 2 then I would say Switch stops getting support and sales drop off a cliff hard once it it is released--if it's something different Switch may still get a couple more years of support until interest in it completely dies off, which is exactly what happened to the 3DS.

Switch will fall off a cliff in 2021, it's used all its big games already, nobody will want one once PS5 and Xbox Series X come out, once the PS3 gets a price cut and the fad of motion controls ends Wii will be dead by 2008, this whole Pokemon thing is just the latest craze and will disappear by 1998.

Lol look at the japanese market at least.

for any developer wanting to make something in japan switch is pretty much the only choice.

4k? Japan ain’t care about 4k when they don’t have the soace for a 4ktv.

I wasn't being serious, I was sarcastically making fun of the usual illogical arguments that have been wheeled out against the Switch for years.

I dont think so.
130 PS4
120 switch