src said:
SW is at 54 million now iirc. It would need to sell 46 million in two years, completely impossible for your prediction. Its still up in the air if this year will be the peak.
Thats not how console sales work. We're either at or nearing SW's peak. Its going to be going down soon and the question is by how much. Can it follow PS4's incredible holds or will it go down like a more traditional Nintendo system. |
Umm what?? I don't think you understand how years work haha. There's 9 months left in this year. Meaning I'm saying it should sell at least 46 million in the next 2 years and 9 months (which includes 3 holiday seasons), which is completely realistic for the Switch. Let's say 16 million rest of this year, 18 million next year, then it starts slowing down and does 14 million in 2022...that'd put it at 102 million. I wouldn't be surprised if it does 2-4 million more than that, so that's probably a few million over 100 million, and that's just by the end of 2022! So no, "completely impossible" is not an accurate description for what I said.
If Switch 2 comes out early 2023 that might cut the Switch off at under 110 million. If Switch 2 doesn't launch until holiday 2023 or early 2024 there's a good chance Switch will hit 115/120 million. Will still probably finish 5+ million behind PS4, but saying it likely won't hit 100 million is just ridiculous and completely ignores what's going on.
Last edited by Slownenberg - on 21 April 2020
