It is for granted that Switch will pass the 100 million and that means a great success! Now imagine f there is a price cut and a switch pro version, cause ps4 sales are on the grounds of ps4 + ps4 pro!

Who looks at the switch and thinks "I bet this console won't get to 100mil sold." I mean barring something horrendous from Ninty, it's a guaranteed 100mil seller at this point. It's not up in the air at all. It's actually quite predictable since the switux hasn't even reached it's peak. The switch can easily reach 120-130mil

People aren't underestimating it they're in fact looking at all factors from momentum to market situation for one Nintendo is not going to replace the platform soon like some think as they have a monopoly on one half of the market for reference the Gameboy was on the market for 10 years before the upgraded model in the GBC arrived due to no competition, with the Switch they may not wait 10 years but they certainly won't replace it after 5 like some think. The Switch is also a more than one per household platform with the Lite variant, people were saying the platform would decline this year yet here we are with it sold out ww, by the end of this year it will be less than 30m off 100m and for a platform that sells 20m a year as bog standard even with out a price cut that's no far off.

Eh... PS3 sold around 7 million consoles after PS4 launched.  I remember a number of people late in PS3's lifecycle projecting that it would still sail past 100m and finish ahead of the Wii using the same reasoning.  PS3 finished at just over 87m.

the switch is a fad otherwise my name is johnlucas

Switch is on path to outsell Wii global sales launch aligned. Currently it should be about 3M behind Wii and is likely to outsell it during holidays this year. To meet your Switch target 95-105 million, Switch sales needs to drop faster than Wii, which is unlikely because of the hybrid model of Switch.

If Nintendo continues to keep Switch successful, with more third party games, continued big first party hitters, a "Pro" version, and price cuts I would guess a reasonable sales guess would be ~70 million in 2020, ~90 million in 2021, 105 million in 2022, 115 million in 2023 (assuming a late Switch 2 release of March 2024), 120 million in 2024, maybe ultimately settling at 123 million or so. I still think that'll put PS4 at least a couple million ahead of the Switch, but saying it might not pass 100 million is absurd.

This is a better reply than I was expecting from the person I quoted.  You are right in that it all comes down to games.  If games keep getting made for Switch (both first and third party) then sales will continue and if the games stop then the sales stop.

Back in the NES days Nintendo had fewer systems to support.  Even with the SNES released Nintendo was only supporting 3 systems: NES, Gameboy and SNES, so all were getting support.  Of course it also helped that the NES was a successful system, because that makes third party companies want to support it too.  Eventually Nintendo had to deal with the possibility of 4 systems at once.  Like when the DS and Wii launched, Nintendo had to evaluate 4 systems: GBA, DS, Gamecube and Wii.  That was too many to support, so Gamecube support stopped as soon as the Wii launched.  Nintendo has to stop supporting old systems as soon as the new ones launch, because 4 systems is just too many to support at once.

When the Switch launched, Nintendo was down to supporting 2 systems: the 3DS and the Switch.  Nintendo still supported the 3DS in 2017 and 2018.  Consequently, the 3DS still sold fairly well even after the Switch launched.  3DS sales for the 12 months after Switch's launch were about the same as the previous 12 months.  This is extremely good considering 3DS was a hugely front loaded system since it got a price cut 8 months after launch.  

Switch is in a much better position than the 3DS.  It's had no price cut yet and is now in its fourth year.  It's also selling much better than the 3DS even though it's had no price cut.  If Nintendo will support their worst performing handheld, the 3DS, even after the Switch launches, then how much more will they support the Switch after it's successor launches.  Also 3rd party developers will keep supporting it because its a popular system. 

You've got to remember that Nintendo is a business.  Stopping Switch support early is throwing money away since it's so popular a system.  The only reason they did this with earlier systems is that 4 systems is too much to support at once.  Now that they only have to support 2 at most, they have much more incentive to keep supporting the Switch even after its successor launches.

i will never understand people's insistence that switch will fall of a cliff soon due to nintendo consoles being shorter lived, when nintendo themselves have stated time and time again that they want this console to have a much longer life than their past consoles. they clearly plan to keep supporting it with strong first party software, revisions, price cuts etc for many years to come.

even in the surprising scenario where CY 2019 is its peak year, it is logical to assume a very slow decline from there - around 17-19 million for 2020, 2021 and even 2022.

Maybe its good for people to underestimate the Switch. Since it keeps on surprising everyone.