Switch now at half of PS4 lifetime sales

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Poliwrathlord said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, since you seem to be an expert on how console sales work, then what is your explanation?  Why do Nintendo consoles seem to sell less on the tail end compared to Sony consoles?  Why is it that the NES, SNES, and Gameboy all had exceptionally strong sales on the tail end?  What changed?  What are the underlying factors?

My guess as to why those consoles in particular had pretty decent sales in their later years is because they were still receiving games even when the new consoles were out. On the NES at least Kirby's Adventure, Yoshi's Cookie, Contra Force, Mega Man 5, and Little Samson all came out in 1992, two years after the SNES came out. I think the SNES had a new revision released in 1997 which of course probably drove sales, and Gameboy likely had strong sales just simply because of Pokemon alone.

These days Ninty doesn't really support consoles as soon as the new one comes out, except in certain cases. N64, Wii, Wii U and GameCube all pretty much got drop like a dirty shirt in terms of support once the new console came out. The exceptions to this pattern would be 3DS and GBA since their successors, DS and Switch, weren't guaranteed successes because they were a new concept so Nintendo had to hedge their bets and still partially support the old consoles in those cases because they knew they were successful.

So I guess what's changed is the fact they Nintendo doesn't really support their consoles anymore once the successor has come out and I would imagine the same will happen to Switch unless like I said before the concept for the successor is completely different. If the console after Switch is just a Switch 2 then I would say Switch stops getting support and sales drop off a cliff hard once it it is released--if it's something different Switch may still get a couple more years of support until interest in it completely dies off, which is exactly what happened to the 3DS.

This is a better reply than I was expecting from the person I quoted.  You are right in that it all comes down to games.  If games keep getting made for Switch (both first and third party) then sales will continue and if the games stop then the sales stop.

Back in the NES days Nintendo had fewer systems to support.  Even with the SNES released Nintendo was only supporting 3 systems: NES, Gameboy and SNES, so all were getting support.  Of course it also helped that the NES was a successful system, because that makes third party companies want to support it too.  Eventually Nintendo had to deal with the possibility of 4 systems at once.  Like when the DS and Wii launched, Nintendo had to evaluate 4 systems: GBA, DS, Gamecube and Wii.  That was too many to support, so Gamecube support stopped as soon as the Wii launched.  Nintendo has to stop supporting old systems as soon as the new ones launch, because 4 systems is just too many to support at once.

When the Switch launched, Nintendo was down to supporting 2 systems: the 3DS and the Switch.  Nintendo still supported the 3DS in 2017 and 2018.  Consequently, the 3DS still sold fairly well even after the Switch launched.  3DS sales for the 12 months after Switch's launch were about the same as the previous 12 months.  This is extremely good considering 3DS was a hugely front loaded system since it got a price cut 8 months after launch.  

Switch is in a much better position than the 3DS.  It's had no price cut yet and is now in its fourth year.  It's also selling much better than the 3DS even though it's had no price cut.  If Nintendo will support their worst performing handheld, the 3DS, even after the Switch launches, then how much more will they support the Switch after it's successor launches.  Also 3rd party developers will keep supporting it because its a popular system. 

You've got to remember that Nintendo is a business.  Stopping Switch support early is throwing money away since it's so popular a system.  The only reason they did this with earlier systems is that 4 systems is too much to support at once.  Now that they only have to support 2 at most, they have much more incentive to keep supporting the Switch even after its successor launches.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 22 April 2020