By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Bussinesses prepare for the elections:



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Around the Network

Expecting a Biden win so i bought a lot of short term calls in gun stocks and long term shares in Tesla.



If Trump loses, instead of being an actual president and reeling in the crazies, he'll allow his supporters to terrorize as they see fit. Scary times ahead



RolStoppable said:
When I tried to watch an NFL stream yesterday, I was greeted by an ad of the Trump campaign before the game started. Biden is a socialist and will raise taxes on the middle class, followed by insinuation that you are only an American patriot if you vote Trump.

This stuff is surreal. This kind of nutjob conspiracy ad is something that the far-right fringe parties in European countries run. Here they are restricted to their internet platforms for their propaganda, because it's not allowed to broadcast such heavy lies and deception on national TV.

In the USA you are a centrist if you are on the politcal right, because the GOP is far-right and the DNC pushes a conservative candidate. Biden isn't left just because he is left of Trump, but there's the prevalent idea that voting conservative means Trump when Trump is actually about reinstating outdated views. This isn't an election between progressive (Biden) and conservative (Trump), it's conservative (Biden) vs. regressive (Trump).

It's amazing and sad at the same time that this election can be a close race. But this is the result of the continuous conservative playcalling of the DNC. Everytime they are on the opponent's 40 yard line with 4th&1 or 4th&2, they will punt. They are too afraid to lose, that's why they won't attempt to win the game for good. The American two-party-system greatly favors the GOP, but the DNC wants to keep it. They don't play it smart.

Sounds like the usual politicking bullshit I've seen on American TV adverts since forever. 

JWeinCom said:
AsGryffynn said:

This is pretty much my view summed up. The only difference is that I'm banking on the notion the Dems are going to freak out considering they could end up loosing twice to wig man. 

Should this take place, they would divide, which would make the EC useless since now the GOP won't be able to get 270 votes and neither will they. Whoever sits in the office by the end of the ordeal will realie that with the DP segmented and the GOP collapsing, they ought to discard the EC in order for a party to win more easily and once this happens, it's down to who's best. 

The GOP would be convinced by the fact that in a three way race, they could actually win the popular vote, thus pulling their party back together from the brink of collapse due to demographic shifts. 

This is what I mean... I don't think you know enough about the details...

Do you know what happens if no party gets to 270? The House of Representative votes. But they don't vote individually, they vote by state delegation. Meaning in that the 55 Congressmen in California get one vote. The 6 from North and South Dakota get two.

This is way way way better for the GOP. In 2016, they won 30 states. In 2012, Romney lost by 126 electoral votes, but would have only been 1 state away from winning if there was a vote by delegation.

And with the democrats splitting the vote in every congressional district, it gets worse. If the New Democratic party takes just ten percent of the vote from the old one, then literally every swing district goes to the Republican party. In 2016, this means that Trump effectively would have won the 30 states he won, plus at least Virginia, Minnesota, Washington,  and Nevada. Maine would be a deadlock.

That means that Trump would have won 34 state delegations, and Hilary and a hypothetical third candidate would have had 16 states (counting DC) combined, at best, with one deadlocked.

If instead the two new parties split the democratic vote 50-50, then the GOP would have won California and New York, and I think literally all 5 delegations. Maybe the Democrats could hang on in DC and Vermont. 

What you're proposing is a GOP wet dream.

1. Except I do, and that's exactly what I'm counting on. 

2. If the House of Conservatives became the new Kingmaker, you'd see the Midterms getting a new kind of importance and people using those to turn the House bluer. We already know its perfectly reasonable and the state readout doesn't necessarily favor the GOP: the number of Deep Red States isn't significantly larger than that of Blue States and would pretty much be left to Swing States: in other words, the US becomes a Parliamentary Republic by default. Already an improvement. 

3. Wouldn't this boil down to the amount of states held by both of the left-ier (urgh) parties? Why does the division of a party suddenly makes them powerless in states their policies had originally allowed them to hold? The vote would still be binary (between the two best performers, which means at least one party would have to support a candidate not from their party, another improvement). 

4. I'm assuming this happens after Trump, when the GOP will essentially lose virtually any stability left. They will have less reasons to fracture, but the party would be useless.

5. The house could also modify the Contingent Elections' rules. I have no clue why it's so far fetched for Dems to hold more than 25 states... Also, yes... Romney was behind by one state, which is kind of the point. These elections would be way closer, which would lead to GOP enthusiasm... but also, fatigue: they can't count on always having 26 states on their side. One breaking ranks dooms them. That's a lot of risks and not any less shakier than your gerrymandering fueled EC victories. 

Bofferbrauer2 said:
AsGryffynn said:


If they win, expect to see the Democratic Party put off many "radical" reforms that are already well over thirty five years overdue. That's why I want them to lose. Man, I recognize both candidates have pros and cons, which is why I tried to ask for an apolitical opinion. I do favor Trump slightly but not because Trump has good policies, but because if we ever had a shot of getting rid of bipartisan first past the post voting in the US, it's now. If the Dems lose, they'll know that 2016 was definitely not a fluke and they need drastic and radical change or they will collapse and spawn two smaller parties that will rapidly absorb votes from Green and GOP voters and lead to the collapse of bipartisanship which would allow for an actual tear down of the Electoral College. The issue is tearing down the EC with a two party system: by demographics alone, it would lead to a Dominant Party state with the Democratic Party taking on a position not different from that of United Russia. A popular vote system needs a third competitor so geography and demographics no longer determine the share of the vote like it does today. 

OTOH, if the GOP loses, not much changes on their end and they go back to the Neoliberal approach that produced clones of Reagan with far less charisma. They win, and we already have a clear right wing party. Then the court falls on the Dems court. If they repeat this a third time, the people are just going to throw their arms up and leave, which is already a good thing since it means they will still tear down the bipartisan structure of the state, even if they do so without the Democratic Party's support or cloud. 

If Trump wins and things go well, expect the next election run to feature the DSA vs the Democratic Center Party vs the GOP

Then how come a democratic state has gotten rid of first past the post and voted a renked choice voting system in place, which then the Republican Party protested against, go it removed, only to see it reinstated for this election? Yes, that's what happened in Maine. The Maine Republican Party even tried to get rid of it through the supreme court just a couple days ago.

Republicans only have a chance in the election due to the winner-takes-all system, so don't expect any Republican to ever want to get rid of it, Trump included. Even more so considering that without it, he would have lost the election. And you can see above what lengths they go to keep first past the post in place. 

About your last sentence: Instead of the DSA, expect the People's Party, which had their convention in August 30, to run at the election in some form.

Because we're dealing with two parties, which means that population is against them. In a simple majority three way race, they'd actually have an advantage so long as the split vote was center left and not center right. However, the Dems should also favor it because the centrist vote of both parties might coalesce into a party that can outperform the potential Red and Blue parties. 

First past the post favors them now because they are in a system anything else would crush them, but this hold is tenuous since it depends on Texas staying loyally red. Texas won't stay red forever and Florida's GOP is going to end up weaker than right now at some point as the "Castro Myth" dies away. 

You're right about the PP probably becoming party #3. 

gergroy said:
AsGryffynn said:

This is pretty much my view summed up. The only difference is that I'm banking on the notion the Dems are going to freak out considering they could end up loosing twice to wig man. 

Should this take place, they would divide, which would make the EC useless since now the GOP won't be able to get 270 votes and neither will they. Whoever sits in the office by the end of the ordeal will realie that with the DP segmented and the GOP collapsing, they ought to discard the EC in order for a party to win more easily and once this happens, it's down to who's best. 

The GOP would be convinced by the fact that in a three way race, they could actually win the popular vote, thus pulling their party back together from the brink of collapse due to demographic shifts. 

I don’t think you are painting a realistic picture of what would happen if the Democrats fractured.  Take a look at what happened when Theodore Roosevelt fractured the Republicans with the bull moose party.  How did that work out for them?

That wasn't a fracture: it was a backlash not dissimilar from the Bernie vote breaking ranks with the Democratic Party back in 2016. You need a significant portion of the party's membership (over one third of it) to do the same, making the party's possibilities of victory near impossible without them. Also, acquiescing to their demands would suffice in forcing the Democratic Party into the left, which would eliminate the need for the split and not require the EC to be disbanded. This is the bad ending for the GOP, but the good one for everyone. 

The real intention with all this is essentially forcing a firmly left wing party into a US General Election. Scaring the Democratic Party into compliance with the Socialist wing is the only way to assist the US with it's long term recovery. Centrism is going to keep things the same and sooner or later the structure will ossify (if they haven't already) and collapse. At least Trump's destructive far right approach has the effect of essentially forcing the opposition to rip some of the structures of power apart after realizing Trump can circumvent them through his party, meaning they are a hindrance to them instead of the GOP. 

jason1637 said:
Expecting a Biden win so i bought a lot of short term calls in gun stocks and long term shares in Tesla.

How does this investment map make any sense? 

I would board my businesses and home up. 

Ok, that's it. I'm blacking out this thread since regardless of the outcome, I will not want to witness the shit flinging that will undoubtedly take place. I will return in around a week or so, when things have settled down. If you want to argue, don't bother. I've made (and rest) my case. Whether you agree it's viable or not is irrelevant since this review only represents my opinion and everyone has their own. 

To each his own, I guess. 



AsGryffynn said:
jason1637 said:
Expecting a Biden win so i bought a lot of short term calls in gun stocks and long term shares in Tesla.

How does this investment map make any sense? 

I would board my businesses and home up. 

Ok, that's it. I'm blacking out this thread since regardless of the outcome, I will not want to witness the shit flinging that will undoubtedly take place. I will return in around a week or so, when things have settled down. If you want to argue, don't bother. I've made (and rest) my case. Whether you agree it's viable or not is irrelevant since this review only represents my opinion and everyone has their own. 

To each his own, I guess. 

Gun sales were booming during the BLM protests and I see that happening again. 

Biden has a plan to make electric cars charging stations as common as gas stations and Tesla has already had a crazy year so I expect them to thrive even more.



Around the Network
AsGryffynn said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Then how come a democratic state has gotten rid of first past the post and voted a renked choice voting system in place, which then the Republican Party protested against, go it removed, only to see it reinstated for this election? Yes, that's what happened in Maine. The Maine Republican Party even tried to get rid of it through the supreme court just a couple days ago.

Republicans only have a chance in the election due to the winner-takes-all system, so don't expect any Republican to ever want to get rid of it, Trump included. Even more so considering that without it, he would have lost the election. And you can see above what lengths they go to keep first past the post in place. 

About your last sentence: Instead of the DSA, expect the People's Party, which had their convention in August 30, to run at the election in some form.

Because we're dealing with two parties, which means that population is against them. In a simple majority three way race, they'd actually have an advantage so long as the split vote was center left and not center right. However, the Dems should also favor it because the centrist vote of both parties might coalesce into a party that can outperform the potential Red and Blue parties. 

First past the post favors them now because they are in a system anything else would crush them, but this hold is tenuous since it depends on Texas staying loyally red. Texas won't stay red forever and Florida's GOP is going to end up weaker than right now at some point as the "Castro Myth" dies away. 

You're right about the PP probably becoming party #3. 

It favors the republicans because they control the small states with very low population, which are severely overweighted in the electoral college because the constitution gives every state 3 votes minimum. A couple of those states bring in 3 electoral votes while having less total population than a big state like California has for just one electoral vote. In fact, if you won those states by just one vote, you could theoretically win the election with only a paltry 24% of the electoral vote.

But the thing is, those states also do have a sizable portion of democrats living in them, and would lose their only big advantage in elections, no matter how many parties are running. So there's no way in hell the Republicans would ever want to change the system, as it would invariably hurt their interests. They are already doing everything they can to suppress votes left and right to be able to compete. Just today for instance, their plead to throw out 127k votes in Texas has been rejected. Because they need to eliminate non-white non-college voters as much as they can to win even with everything stacked in their favor. So don't expect them to ever remove those advantages - they'd just use a third party to ensure victory as @JWeinCom has explained to you if nobody would get 270 votes.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
AsGryffynn said:

Because we're dealing with two parties, which means that population is against them. In a simple majority three way race, they'd actually have an advantage so long as the split vote was center left and not center right. However, the Dems should also favor it because the centrist vote of both parties might coalesce into a party that can outperform the potential Red and Blue parties. 

First past the post favors them now because they are in a system anything else would crush them, but this hold is tenuous since it depends on Texas staying loyally red. Texas won't stay red forever and Florida's GOP is going to end up weaker than right now at some point as the "Castro Myth" dies away. 

You're right about the PP probably becoming party #3. 

It favors the republicans because they control the small states with very low population, which are severely overweighted in the electoral college because the constitution gives every state 3 votes minimum. A couple of those states bring in 3 electoral votes while having less total population than a big state like California has for just one electoral vote. In fact, if you won those states by just one vote, you could theoretically win the election with only a paltry 24% of the electoral vote.

But the thing is, those states also do have a sizable portion of democrats living in them, and would lose their only big advantage in elections, no matter how many parties are running. So there's no way in hell the Republicans would ever want to change the system, as it would invariably hurt their interests. They are already doing everything they can to suppress votes left and right to be able to compete. Just today for instance, their plead to throw out 127k votes in Texas has been rejected. Because they need to eliminate non-white non-college voters as much as they can to win even with everything stacked in their favor. So don't expect them to ever remove those advantages - they'd just use a third party to ensure victory as @JWeinCom has explained to you if nobody would get 270 votes.

I think they think this is a parliamentary system... It's not, and having three parties doesn't make it so. 

A parliamentary system only works when you need a majority. In a system where you need a plurality, splitting the party in half is literally the worst idea possible, even before considering the logistics of funding twice as many candidates.



CNN Election Coverage starts at 10 PM tonight in Arizona. We’re on Mountain Standard Time now. Daylight Savings was yesterday. So if you’re in California, Oregon, Washington, or any state that’s on Pacific Standard Time, coverage should start at 9 PM.



Polls will be 2016 all over again. Trump will win. Trump has the silent majority vote, and he'll get those key swing states again. America seems lit to live in right now besides their abysmal COVID response lol



ReclusiveExclusive said:
Polls will be 2016 all over again. Trump will win. Trump has the silent majority vote, and he'll get those key swing states again. America seems lit to live in right now besides their abysmal COVID response lol

That is the single biggest issue in this election for voters and the one where Trump is getting the most flack for, even from members and voters in the Republican party, yet you still think he’ll win?

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 02 November 2020