Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Welcome to the Official 2020 US Presidential election thread.

Nominees from major and noted minor parties

Party Republican Democratic Green Libertarian
Nominee Donald J. Trump
(Incumbent)
Joseph Biden
(Presumtative)
Howie Hakins Jo Jorgensen
Running Mate
Mike Pence

Angela Walker

Spike Cohen
Popular Vote
Electoral Vote



State results

State Winner R Votes R E Votes D Votes D E Votes G Votes G E Votes L Votes L E Votes
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
North Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Last edited by SpokenTruth - 1 day ago

Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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Please keep the topic specifically about the general election. While the Democratic primary is still active, please use the Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party thread for discussing Democratic candidates.

For general political discussion, please use the Official US Politics thread.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Here my super early prediction

Biden wins by
Winning every state Clinton won in 2016 and flipping 3 states that trump won.

1. Michigan (in 2016 trump won it only by 0.23 of a percent)
2. Pennsylvania (in 2016 trump won it only by 0.28 of a percent)
3. Wisconsin (in 2016 trump won it only by 0.23 of a percent)

Final results 273-258 with Biden becoming president.

Biden will also win the popular vote but I can see the margin being less then what Clinton won by because I can see Biden doing worse in some of the deep blue states but not enough to flip any of those states Clinton won. I mainly thinking Biden could drop compare to Clinton in California which could be well more then the few votes he need to pick to win those 3 states. For example Clinton won California by more then 4 million votes. He could loose a Million votes in California and pick up only 50k in the 3 states I said he would flip combined and still win the election.



Donald Trump will be re-elected. He might lose a swing states like Pennsylvania, but it won't be enough. Joe Biden cannot draw the enthusiasm for non-voters to soundly defeat an incumbent.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Biden has my vote. Trump is the worst president of my lifetime by far. I’m eager to be done with him. Hopefully other people can realize that... I hated both candidates in the last election and ended up voting for McMullen (he was surging here in Utah, I was hoping he would take away the electoral votes from trump). I’m not a big fan of Biden either, but I am a big fan of anybody else besides trump being president.



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Trump 2016: "I'm going to Make America Great Again!"
Trump 2020: "I was being sarcastic!"



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

My prediction: Biden wins with a large margin.

Latest generic polling showed that the Republicans lost by over 10%, which indicates a huge shift. (I'll add a link as soon as I'll find it again)

While Hillary won most polls, Trump did pass her in several polls each and every month, even around the same timeframe already (so the timeframe until June 2016). Trump still has to pass Biden in any poll since early April, although he did get the same number a couple times. Biden polls higher than Hillary, which was a bit all over the place with polling numbers wildly jumping around anywhere between 40 and 50%, while Biden is almost always between 46 and 52%.

At the same time, Trump is somewhat in front of last year's numbers, but that was because he hit a strong slump in mid-Mayl to late June 2016, where barely hit 40%. Compared to numbers outside of that slump on the other hand shows he's trailing those numbers a bit. Back then he was polling anywhere between 39 and 47%, while now he's more on 36 to 46%.

Trump became president because he won several states by tiny margins:

  • Florida by 1.2% (29 EC votes)
  • Wisconsin by 0.77% (10 EC votes)
  • Pennsylvania by 0.72% (20 EC votes)
  • Michigan by 0.23% (16 EC votes)

Losing just a bit of votes in those states would be very devastating for Trump. Heck, just losing the two tightest ones, Pennsylvania and Michigan, would be enough to put Trump at just 268 electoral votes, and thus short of an election (assuming he wouldn't flip any other states in the meanwhile, of course).

Finally, Texas is becoming more urban, and thus leaning more and more into the direction of the democratic party. Hillary did better there than Obama ever did in the state. With a more likable candidate there's even a slight chance of pushing Texas into Swing state territory this year already. Losing Texas would be devastating for Trump, and for the Republicans as a whole, as it's by far their biggest source of electoral votes. Without Texas, it would become very difficult for the Republicans to win any election. I don't expect Biden to flip Texas this year already, but he should come pretty close to Trump.

Finally, I think third parties will get a bit less votes than they did in the last election. In 2016, they got over 5% of the popular vote, mostly because both major candidates rubbed many people the wrong way. While Biden is less than ideal for many, he's still much less divisive than Clinton did. I expect the libertarians to loose votes, but the green party could grow somewhat.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 June 2020

@SpokenTruth : The Nominee of the Libertarian Party is already known, Jo Jorgensen won the primaries against her 6 male opponents to become the first female nominee for the Libertarian Party, with Jeremy "Spike" Cohen as her running mate.

http://ballot-access.org/2020/05/23/jo-jorgensen-wins-libertarian-presidential-nomination-on-fourth-vote/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Libertarian_Party_presidential_primaries



vs.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Bofferbrauer2 said:

My prediction: Biden wins with a large margin.

Latest generic polling showed that the Republicans lost by over 10%, which indicates a huge shift. (I'll add a link as soon as I'll find it again)

While Hillary won most polls, Trump did pass her in several polls each and every month, even around the same timeframe already (so the timeframe until June 2016). Trump still has to pass Biden in any poll since early April, although he did get the same number a couple times. Biden polls higher than Hillary, which was a bit all over the place with polling numbers wildly jumping around anywhere between 40 and 50%, while Biden is almost always between 46 and 52%.

At the same time, Trump is somewhat in front of last year's numbers, but that was because he hit a strong slump in mid-Mayl to late June 2016, where barely hit 40%. Compared to numbers outside of that slump on the other hand shows he's trailing those numbers a bit. Back then he was polling anywhere between 39 and 47%, while now he's more on 36 to 46%.

Trump became president because he won several states by tiny margins:

  • Florida by 1.2% (29 EC votes)
  • Wisconsin by 0.77% (10 EC votes)
  • Pennsylvania by 0.72% (20 EC votes)
  • Michigan by 0.23% (16 EC votes)

Losing just a bit of votes in those states would be very devastating for Trump. Heck, just losing the two tightest ones, Pennsylvania and Michigan, would be enough to put Trump at just 268 electoral votes, and thus short of an election (assuming he wouldn't flip any other states in the meanwhile, of course).

Finally, Texas is becoming more urban, and thus leaning more and more into the direction of the democratic party. Hillary did better there than Obama ever did in the state. With a more likable candidate there's even a slight chance of pushing Texas into Swing state territory this year already. Losing Texas would be devastating for Trump, and for the Republicans as a whole, as it's by far their biggest source of electoral votes. Without Texas, it would become very difficult for the Republicans to win any election. I don't expect Biden to flip Texas this year already, but he should come pretty close to Trump.

Finally, I think third parties will get a bit less votes than they did in the last election. In 2016, they got over 5% of the popular vote, mostly because both major candidates rubbed many people the wrong way. While Biden is less than ideal for many, he's still much less divisive than Clinton did. I expect the libertarians to loose votes, but the green party could grow somewhat.

If you going to include Texas as a swing state (despite some polling showing it extremely close am still extremely skeptical of that) then there a number of other states you can include which Biden have a better chance of winning then Texas which are Arizona, North Carolina and Ohio in order from most likely to least likely in my eyes.  

I still sticking with most likely results is Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Biden flips because those are the 3 states I think there are enough voters to change the results that voted for Obama twice but for what ever reason they simply could not stomach Hillary. I think those are the kind of people that will have no problem voting for Biden.

In the other states I want to believe the last 4 years was enough to convince people that trump is a horrible president but I simply don't have enough trust in people to make that bet.  I hope am wrong and Biden has a massive victory but for now I stick with my original prediction of just those 3 states flipping to give Biden the victory.