My prediction: Biden wins with a large margin.
Latest generic polling showed that the Republicans lost by over 10%, which indicates a huge shift. (I'll add a link as soon as I'll find it again)
While Hillary won most polls, Trump did pass her in several polls each and every month, even around the same timeframe already (so the timeframe until June 2016). Trump still has to pass Biden in any poll since early April, although he did get the same number a couple times. Biden polls higher than Hillary, which was a bit all over the place with polling numbers wildly jumping around anywhere between 40 and 50%, while Biden is almost always between 46 and 52%.
At the same time, Trump is somewhat in front of last year's numbers, but that was because he hit a strong slump in mid-Mayl to late June 2016, where barely hit 40%. Compared to numbers outside of that slump on the other hand shows he's trailing those numbers a bit. Back then he was polling anywhere between 39 and 47%, while now he's more on 36 to 46%.
Trump became president because he won several states by tiny margins:
- Florida by 1.2% (29 EC votes)
- Wisconsin by 0.77% (10 EC votes)
- Pennsylvania by 0.72% (20 EC votes)
- Michigan by 0.23% (16 EC votes)
Losing just a bit of votes in those states would be very devastating for Trump. Heck, just losing the two tightest ones, Pennsylvania and Michigan, would be enough to put Trump at just 268 electoral votes, and thus short of an election (assuming he wouldn't flip any other states in the meanwhile, of course).
Finally, Texas is becoming more urban, and thus leaning more and more into the direction of the democratic party. Hillary did better there than Obama ever did in the state. With a more likable candidate there's even a slight chance of pushing Texas into Swing state territory this year already. Losing Texas would be devastating for Trump, and for the Republicans as a whole, as it's by far their biggest source of electoral votes. Without Texas, it would become very difficult for the Republicans to win any election. I don't expect Biden to flip Texas this year already, but he should come pretty close to Trump.
Finally, I think third parties will get a bit less votes than they did in the last election. In 2016, they got over 5% of the popular vote, mostly because both major candidates rubbed many people the wrong way. While Biden is less than ideal for many, he's still much less divisive than Clinton did. I expect the libertarians to loose votes, but the green party could grow somewhat.
Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 June 2020