Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Jumpin said:
Trump 2016: "I'm going to Make America Great Again!"
Trump 2020: "I was being sarcastic!"

Trump 2016: "You will get tired of winning!"
Trump 2020: "See?!"



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I'm an American and I've been through a lot of these election cycles in my life. This feels like a Democratic year to me. I mean, matter-of-factly, it's been a Democratic year every year since Trump was elected. Trump won in 2016 on a legal technicality and his party hasn't stopped paying for it since.

-The 2017 off-year elections were a Democratic sweep.
-The 2018 midterm elections were a Democratic wave.
-The 2019 off-year elections were another Democratic upsurge.
-The generic ballots this year so far show a generic Democratic candidate ahead of a generic Republican for Congress by a margin of 8 percentage points, which is the same as in the 2018 midterm elections.
-Likewise, Trump himself is polling much further behind his Democratic challenger, Biden, than he was behind Hillary Clinton at this same point in the 2016 election. Specifically, in the current moving average of polls, he trails Biden by 8.1 percentage points, which is essentially identical to how far behind the rest of his party is polling compared to the Democrats, so he appears to be dragging his whole party down with him.
-Trump is losing the support of demographic groups that were key to his 2016 electoral victory. Namely, he's losing the support of older voters and of white working class women (people like me, in other words), in addition to more famously alienating the suburban middle class.

The Trump apologists remind me that the polls also show an enthusiasm gap favoring Trump. That works both ways though because they also show an enthusiasm gap against him, and the latter one is larger. In other words, people (including me) may not love Joe Biden, but it doesn't really matter because Trump doesn't need his challenger's help to lose this election; he's doing that all by himself. Every fault he can accuse Joe Biden of having is one that he himself self-evidently possesses in spades. There's nothing he can throw out that can't be thrown right back in his direction harder.

Most importantly though, where people were looking for reasons to vote for Trump in 2016, today they're looking for reasons to vote against him. And that vote is more unified around one candidate than it was at this same point in 2016. There's less demand for third party candidates this year as voters are clearly concentrating on the goal of defeating the current president.

None of this is to say that November will mark the end of the Republican Party by any means! To the contrary, if history is any guide on this, once a party is out of power, having lost a generation of elected public leaders, that forces said party to recruit a new generation of talent; a new generation more in-touch with the social situation on the ground and thus better able to navigate their party to victory. Inevitably, waves of fresh faces feel refreshing and populist in their own way. In other words, being out of power will likely touch off a renaissance of sorts for the Republican Party, if anything. Then the cycle will start again.

Those would be my observations at this stage.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 13 June 2020

coolbeans said:
I think @SpokenTruth should add the shirtless Spike Cohen meme for the Libertarian VP pick. :P

Can you link me to this?  I'm not familiar with it.

Imnus said:
Well, either Trump wins or America becomes a commie shithole in about ten years.

Hell even if Trump wins the US becoming a communist hellhole it's only delayed, we would need to figure how kill the commie cancer that has infiltrated every fucking institution in the country and the world for that matter.

I'm quoting you simply to put your ignorance on display twice.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
Imnus said:
Well, either Trump wins or America becomes a commie shithole in about ten years.

Hell even if Trump wins the US becoming a communist hellhole it's only delayed, we would need to figure how kill the commie cancer that has infiltrated every fucking institution in the country and the world for that matter.

I'm quoting you simply to put your ignorance on display twice.

Well, thrice, since I quoted him already with a rebuttal. (which makes this the forth time, hehehe). Also bolded and emphasized to make it clearer.

But I agree that this needed to be put on display. If a party who by international standards is center-right is considered communistic, I can't wait to see his reaction to any centrist or, gasp, center-left party from Europe. Heart attack over everything running fine and not into the ground like the US are doing for years now maybe?

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 17 June 2020

@SpokenTruth : Maybe you want to add some links to the opinion polls aggregates? Got them right here for you:

270toWin: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/national/

RealClearPolitics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Wikipedia mean value between the poll aggregates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election

Wikipedia also includes some older polls with other (at the time) potential candidates down the list.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

@SpokenTruth : Maybe you want to add some links to the opinion polls aggregates? Got them right here for you:

270toWin: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/national/

RealClearPolitics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Wikipedia mean value between the poll aggregates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election

Wikipedia also includes some older polls with other (at the time) potential candidates down the list.

I'll add several things to the OP over the next month or so as the conventions take place.  But those aggregates are likely part of what I'll be adding.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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To avoid cluttering up the forum with redundant threads, we request that all discussion regarding the 2020 Presidential election, at least in the specific, be done in this thread. For example, if you want to have a discussion about electoral systems in the abstract, that could warrant its own thread. And obviously not everything regarding news and politics has to be in this thread even if it may happen to mention or involve the candidates (there's already a general U.S. politics thread, for example). But if you want to discuss things like who you think will win or should win, or anything about the campaigns or the debates, etc., keep it here. Threads deemed redundant may be locked.

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
JWeinCom said:

I think they should implement ranked choice voting.  Doing so would would allow you to vote without throwing away your vote.  And, I'm fairly certain that an individual state could elect to do that on their own without the feds input.

Anything other than winner takes all would be an improvement for sure. Even just small baby steps like splitting up a state in several congressional districts would be very appreciated and more representative of the population ant their voting as a whole.

But then the GOP gerrymanders come into play, and you get stuff in 2012 like Romney winning 13/20 EC votes in Pennsylvania while losing its popular vote by 5.5% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania#By_congressional_district)

He also wins 14 out of 18 EC votes in Ohio, and a majority of electors in Florida, despite losing those states too. Obama gains a dozen votes out of Texas and a few in Arizona and some other states, but overall has a smaller Electoral College lead, or even falls behind. Ranked choice is definitely the way to go.



Mr_Destiny said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Anything other than winner takes all would be an improvement for sure. Even just small baby steps like splitting up a state in several congressional districts would be very appreciated and more representative of the population ant their voting as a whole.

But then the GOP gerrymanders come into play, and you get stuff in 2012 like Romney winning 13/20 EC votes in Pennsylvania while losing its popular vote by 5.5% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania#By_congressional_district)

He also wins 14 out of 18 EC votes in Ohio, and a majority of electors in Florida, despite losing those states too. Obama gains a dozen votes out of Texas and a few in Arizona and some other states, but overall has a smaller Electoral College lead, or even falls behind. Ranked choice is definitely the way to go.

Hence I said Baby steps. Gerrymandering also should be forbidden and the counties redrawn one last time based on geographical borders (like cliffs, rivers, mountains) and/or latitude/longitude and then outlawed forever, but that's another point. Also with so many EC, there's also a distinct chance to lose some votes to third parties no matter how they redraw the lines as then the vote for third parties would not be "lost" anymore (at least not nearly to the same degree anymore).

I do agree that Ranked choice or some proportional voting system would be much preferable to this, but like I said, anything is better than winner takes all.



I'm personally not buying the Georgia and Texas going blue this election nonsense. I do think Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconson are good options to flip back blue this election though. Assuming Dems can hold the states they won under Hillary, and nab the aforementioned states, they would win. Trump barely won in those states too so it definitely isn't an impossible scenario to envision happening.