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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Mnementh said:
Angelus said:
I think we can look to South Korea for a more accurate representation of the real death rate of this virus. They've done incredibly broad testing on their population, and their mortality for it is around 0.6%. This, of course, is still magnitudes higher than the flu, but it's also far from the percentages we see thrown around in the media.

There is another factor in there: how much the health system is overloaded. COVID-19 has around 20% extreme cases, which needs intensive care. If treated properly because enough resources (like breathing machines) are available, than the mortality rate can be low. If the health system is run over by cases the mortality spikes. In countries like Italy and in Wuhan we see up to 5% mortality (other regions of China also had around 0.5%-0.7% mortality).

Another problem is long term effects. There is indication that more serious cases leave permanent damage to the lungs.

Italy's mortality rate is similar to other countries adjusted by age, the deteced cases there are just that old.

And yes, some permanent damage to the lungs is what happens to almost everyone who has to contend with a month of pneumonia. Injuries leave scars, even at the cellular level.

Edit - yay for DP?



 

 

 

 

 

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Angelus said:
I think we can look to South Korea for a more accurate representation of the real death rate of this virus. They've done incredibly broad testing on their population, and their mortality for it is around 0.6%. This, of course, is still magnitudes higher than the flu, but it's also far from the percentages we see thrown around in the media.

I think we need more than one country for some real stats. Not because of the number of cases in South Korea but because not every country has the same health system. I would guess that South Korea will be one of the better countries to let people survive. USA as example could be already worse. The worldwide average will be above South Korea for sure. Most cases in South Korea are also still active. Even if they would be at 0 new cases you would still have "a lot" more deaths the next weeks. 

And we should also not forget that you can use the same argument for the yearly flu of which we also don't know the real number of infected persons. So, if the death rate is "only" like 1% from this now then the death rate of the normal flu is also lower as proclaimed. in the end it will be still around the same factor just that both will have a lower death rate as mentioned. 

We have 5500 deaths right now and 150k known cases. Even if we have 550k cases already, the death rate is at 1% and that without all those already infected who will still die. So, even if we have already over a million infected and not 150k, the death rate could be still above 1%.

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 14 March 2020

crissindahouse said:
Angelus said:
I think we can look to South Korea for a more accurate representation of the real death rate of this virus. They've done incredibly broad testing on their population, and their mortality for it is around 0.6%. This, of course, is still magnitudes higher than the flu, but it's also far from the percentages we see thrown around in the media.

I think we need more than one country for some real stats. Not because of the number of cases in South Korea but because not every country has the same health system. I would guess that South Korea will be one of the better countries to let people survive. USA as example could be already worse. The worldwide average will be above South Korea for sure. Most cases in South Korea are also still active. Even if they would be at 0 new cases you would still have "a lot" more deaths the next weeks. 

And we should also not forget that you can use the same argument for the yearly flu of which we also don't know the real number of infected persons. So, if the death rate is "only" like 1% from this now then the death rate of the normal flu is also lower as proclaimed. in the end it will be still around the same factor just that both will have a lower death rate as mentioned. 

We have 5500 deaths right now and 150k known cases. Even if we have 550k cases already, the death rate is at 1% and that without all those already infected who will still die. So, even if we have already over a million infected and not 150k, the death rate could be still above 1%.

Perhaps 0.6% will end up being slightly lower than what we'll see on the whole, and I'm by no means saying that people shouldn't take this virus seriously, or that governments aren't right in taking precautions. My point is, when looking at a country that does wide sweeping testing, rather than other places where you can maybe only get tested under very specific circumstances, it's important to note the percentages go down quite significantly. 

It's the lack of proper response, poor testing protocols, and the ensuing panic by the general population, as a result of seeing fairly skewed statistics that result from this flawed testing process that is really enhancing the damage caused by this virus. At least that's how I see it atm.



vivster said:
SvennoJ said:

Did you read the link?

Myth: You're waaaay less likely to get this than the flu 

Not necessarily. To estimate how easily a virus spreads, scientists calculate its "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person, Live Science previously reported. Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. By comparison, the flu has an R0 of 1.3. 

Myth: The coronavirus is less deadly than the flu

So far, it appears the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu. However, there's still a lot of uncertainty around the mortality rate of the virus. The annual flu typically has a mortality rate of around 0.1% in the U.S. So far, there's a 0.05% mortality rate among those who caught the flu virus in the U.S. this year, according to the CDC.

In comparison, recent data suggests that COVID-19 has a mortality rate more than 20 times higher, of around 2.3%, according to a study published Feb. 18 by the China CDC Weekly. The death rate varied by different factors such as location and an individual's age, according to a previous Live Science report

But these numbers are continuously evolving and may not represent the actual mortality rate. It's not clear if the case counts in China are accurately documented, especially since they shifted the way they defined cases midway through, according to STAT News. There could be many mild or asymptomatic cases that weren't counted in the total sample size, they wrote. 


There could be many more mild cases around that skew the current death rate estimates, but that won't make it any better, probably even worse, since that means it has spread far further already. The death rate also depends on the availability of respirators to keep people alive. The critical care rate is still very high. (9%)

I read the points and nothing of that was new information, nor has it any impact. If you read between the lines you can see that in the end it will be about as severe as a normal seasonal flu. The simple fact that it is so infectious alone makes any reported number a joke. The virus is already way more far spread, which means the actual death rate is way lower. And if you take into account who is actually dying from it, i.e. people who would've died from a normal flu just as well, it brings things into perspective.

It might be slightly more infectious than the flu, but that is easily made up by the fact that it's so much weaker.

A friend of our family is 97 years old, she has never ever seen anything close to this. Her chances of survival are very slim when she gets it but hey it's her time anyway right. My wife is also in the severe risk group although just in her forties. She can take the flu, get through regular pneumonia (2 months recovery), for this her outlook looks very grim if she catches it. Our parents are in their seventies (just my dad on my side, my mom lost the battle to alzheimers last year, luckily spared this on top), my wife's dad also has pre existing conditions for covid19. My kids will be fine, but it would be nice for them to grow up with their mother and grandfather.

Another family friend is scared as well since she's due to deliver a baby next week while the hospitals are getting frantic about covid19. My wife's niece is due in 6 months, hopefully things are down to normal by then but obgyn visits might be better to put on hold for now.

So maybe that brings things a bit into perspective for you.


It's probably far more widespread in the USA right now since tests still cost $3,000, maybe from next week we'll see another spike

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a coronavirus aid package that would provide free testing and paid sick leave. If it passes the Senate next week it would provide
paid sick and family leave for 2 weeks for those affected by the virus


The response is unprecedented in all of modern history. I'm glad governments are finally listening to the experts and not reading between the lines.





959 Cases now in the Netherlands but people with mild symptoms will not be tested anymore :s.






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Mnementh said:
crissindahouse said:
149 countries with confirmed cases now. A few months ago it all started somewhere in China...

What shocks me is, how badly most countries reacted. Including western industry nations. China has contained the virus with great effort, but although western countries had weeks more time to understand what is happening, planning and enact measurements, many countries fell short. East asian countries reacted pretty well, that is why Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan do pretty good and South Korea had a super spreader but since working on containing it again and is seemingly successful. Spain will probably overtake South Korean case numbers this weekend, France, Germany and the US early next week. This could've been avoided, had the west reacted like Asia did.

Western democracies cant take some of the measures China has



jason1637 said:
Mnementh said:

What shocks me is, how badly most countries reacted. Including western industry nations. China has contained the virus with great effort, but although western countries had weeks more time to understand what is happening, planning and enact measurements, many countries fell short. East asian countries reacted pretty well, that is why Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan do pretty good and South Korea had a super spreader but since working on containing it again and is seemingly successful. Spain will probably overtake South Korean case numbers this weekend, France, Germany and the US early next week. This could've been avoided, had the west reacted like Asia did.

Western democracies cant take some of the measures China has

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-bought-the-west-time-with-the-coronavirus-the-west-squandered-it/ar-BB118VnD?li=AAggNb9



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John2290 said:
vivster said:

If I had to worry about my grandparents or parents every day then I wouldn't get to do anything else. There are lots of scary things on the planet that can kill anyone within a moment's notice. Weirdly those things didn't cause a panic, that's probably because they are a fact of life and people learned to deal with it. Also probably because they don't have sexy names like corona and get tracked as closely as royal couples.

Yep, I worry about me or my loved ones dying, but I do it realistically and not in a panic. I don't go out there demanding quarantines of anyone with a driver's license who could kill my mom in an accident. I don't send death threats to medical scientists because they haven't solved the actual biggest threat to human health, cancer. I take my chances with things that have a very low death probability so I don't overburden a health system that has already enough to do with real threats. Also, I take necessary hygiene precautions in every flu season and not just the ones with sexy names.

Dickheads, who want to scare people into a panic by trying to invoke death scenarios of their loved ones are doing so much more harm than any harmless flu virus ever could.

I hope to God you're right and the worst we can say about this in a few years is that we panicked and put a hitch in the economy for a time, It'll be great to look back on it laugh that nothing happened.

What do you think will happen? Even the absolute worst case scenario imaginable will be nothing but a footnote in history. Let's be crazy and assume the virus has a 10% death rate, which is more than 10 times of what it actually has. And let's assume it will infect every single human on earth, which is also more than ten times of what it will. So we're gonna lose 10% of the world's population, most of which will be people who wouldn't have survived for long anyway. Now what? You think that will bring some sort of collapse of society?

Maybe it would be different if the virus was aggressive against children and working adults, but it isn't. It's fun to panic but maybe stop once in a while and think about what you are actually scared of. If someone as idiotic and reckless as Trump can't hurt humanity, a little virus certainly won't.

Stress and anxiety are bad for your immune system and you know who loves weak immune systems. Which means intentionally stressing other people out is indirectly killing them even faster. Please don't try to kill more people.



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konnichiwa said:
959 Cases now in the Netherlands but people with mild symptoms will not be tested anymore :s.

Because they must stay at home as soon as anyone feels less than 100%, so you probably couldn’t even test them if you wanted to.



I got a sore throat and my nose is running a bit.