Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

vivster said:

SvennoJ said:

Did you read the link?

Myth: You're waaaay less likely to get this than the flu 

Not necessarily. To estimate how easily a virus spreads, scientists calculate its "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person, Live Science previously reported. Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. By comparison, the flu has an R0 of 1.3. 

Myth: The coronavirus is less deadly than the flu

So far, it appears the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu. However, there's still a lot of uncertainty around the mortality rate of the virus. The annual flu typically has a mortality rate of around 0.1% in the U.S. So far, there's a 0.05% mortality rate among those who caught the flu virus in the U.S. this year, according to the CDC.

In comparison, recent data suggests that COVID-19 has a mortality rate more than 20 times higher, of around 2.3%, according to a study published Feb. 18 by the China CDC Weekly. The death rate varied by different factors such as location and an individual's age, according to a previous Live Science report. 

But these numbers are continuously evolving and may not represent the actual mortality rate. It's not clear if the case counts in China are accurately documented, especially since they shifted the way they defined cases midway through, according to STAT News. There could be many mild or asymptomatic cases that weren't counted in the total sample size, they wrote. 


There could be many more mild cases around that skew the current death rate estimates, but that won't make it any better, probably even worse, since that means it has spread far further already. The death rate also depends on the availability of respirators to keep people alive. The critical care rate is still very high. (9%)

I read the points and nothing of that was new information, nor has it any impact. If you read between the lines you can see that in the end it will be about as severe as a normal seasonal flu. The simple fact that it is so infectious alone makes any reported number a joke. The virus is already way more far spread, which means the actual death rate is way lower. And if you take into account who is actually dying from it, i.e. people who would've died from a normal flu just as well, it brings things into perspective.

It might be slightly more infectious than the flu, but that is easily made up by the fact that it's so much weaker.

A friend of our family is 97 years old, she has never ever seen anything close to this. Her chances of survival are very slim when she gets it but hey it's her time anyway right. My wife is also in the severe risk group although just in her forties. She can take the flu, get through regular pneumonia (2 months recovery), for this her outlook looks very grim if she catches it. Our parents are in their seventies (just my dad on my side, my mom lost the battle to alzheimers last year, luckily spared this on top), my wife's dad also has pre existing conditions for covid19. My kids will be fine, but it would be nice for them to grow up with their mother and grandfather.

Another family friend is scared as well since she's due to deliver a baby next week while the hospitals are getting frantic about covid19. My wife's niece is due in 6 months, hopefully things are down to normal by then but obgyn visits might be better to put on hold for now.

So maybe that brings things a bit into perspective for you.


It's probably far more widespread in the USA right now since tests still cost $3,000, maybe from next week we'll see another spike

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a coronavirus aid package that would provide free testing and paid sick leave. If it passes the Senate next week it would provide paid sick and family leave for 2 weeks for those affected by the virus


The response is unprecedented in all of modern history. I'm glad governments are finally listening to the experts and not reading between the lines.