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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:

Deaths / Total detected cases varies wildly per country

Italy 7.7%
Iran 5.7%
China 4.0%
UK 3.6%
Spain 3.4%
France 2.2%
USA 2.0%
Netherlands 1.7%
South Korea 1.0%
Switzerland 0.8%
Denmark 0.4%
Germany 0.2%

Germany seems best at detecting cases and/or keeping people alive so far. The timing is also different of course. China is hardly detecting new cases anymore but still has 3200 serious/critical cases marker. Italy is still climbing fast with now 3 times the active cases as are left in China. You would think Germany and the UK are not far different in timing yet a totally different ratio.

Very hard to say anything about how many cases there really are.

Guess part of it, is how well your healthcare system works?

I heard a explaination for italy high number is:
1) they are currently overwhelmed.... too many sick people. Without enough supplies/beds/doc+nurses things go bad.
2) higher % of older people (one of the highest in the world)
3) its common for 2-3 generations of a family to live in the same house.  So the young get it, and infect the elderly to a higher degree.

Yeah it could be partly a cultural thing with the elderly living in nursing homes or on their own in Germany. Germany is also reporting very few (2) serious cases, maybe it's only/mainly spreading among the young in Germany? Or the classification is screwed up as 3 more died today without ever being listed as serious.

No wonder maximum efforts are currently in force to socially distance people. There's simply no knowing how widespread it already is with all this conflicting data and limited actual testing.



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SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Guess part of it, is how well your healthcare system works?

I heard a explaination for italy high number is:
1) they are currently overwhelmed.... too many sick people. Without enough supplies/beds/doc+nurses things go bad.
2) higher % of older people (one of the highest in the world)
3) its common for 2-3 generations of a family to live in the same house.  So the young get it, and infect the elderly to a higher degree.

Yeah it could be partly a cultural thing with the elderly living in nursing homes or on their own in Germany. Germany is also reporting very few (2) serious cases, maybe it's only/mainly spreading among the young in Germany? Or the classification is screwed up as 3 more died today without ever being listed as serious.

No wonder maximum efforts are currently in force to socially distance people. There's simply no knowing how widespread it already is with all this conflicting data and limited actual testing.

Many countries aren't properly reporting them so that column isn't much of use. Germany's been at 2 since the first time I've taken a look on that table.

Some other candidates that are very likely not reporting all serious cases: Iran, Switzerland, USA, Sweden and probably a lot more.



John2290 said:
Lafiel said:

the lethal 2nd wave in the 1918 H1N1 pandemic (which we should avoid calling the "Spanish Flu") afaik mainly killed people in their 20s-40s as it often caused a cytokine storm that is much more drastic in people with good immunesystems (and it is hypothised, that older ppl may have had some immunity from a 1889 pandemic), leading to 92% of it's victims apparently being below the age of 65 - todays older population might have been more resistant to it even without all the possibilities of modern medicine

Why can't we call it the spanish flu?

We can. But it probably started in the US and troops participating in WW1 spread it into europe.



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424 new cases and 5 new deaths in New York State. 1374 total cases.

Edit: Governor Cuomo just said to expecr us to peak with the number of new cases in 45 days.



Peh said:

I can't say it any nicer, but the Trump administration is a piece of shit.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

They are willing to buy CureVac, a German company, which is working on a vaccines. The Trump administration wants the vaccine exclusive for the US. 

CureVac will share the vaccine with the world once it's ready.

JRPGfan said:
Peh said:

I can't say it any nicer, but the Trump administration is a piece of shit.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

They are willing to buy CureVac, a German company, which is working on a vaccines. The Trump administration wants the vaccine exclusive for the US. 

CureVac will share the vaccine with the world once it's ready.

Why not try to make a quick buck, on the death and suffering and fear of such, others have? *sarcasm*

This is the same thing with the quick testing methode the germans made, for CoVid-19.

Amercan didnt want to use it, because they cant profit off of it, so they attempted to make their own, and ran into issues with mass production and reliability. This caused delays to testing, and possibly ment higher spreads of it.

Chrizum said:
Peh said:

I can't say it any nicer, but the Trump administration is a piece of shit.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

They are willing to buy CureVac, a German company, which is working on a vaccines. The Trump administration wants the vaccine exclusive for the US. 

CureVac will share the vaccine with the world once it's ready.

Anyone who thinks Trump cares about anyone but himself and his rich friends at this point is deluding himself.

Didn't CureVac come out and state that report was false and that no offer was made, and that they had merely been invited to the White House to discuss vaccine development with the US' Coronavirus Task Force along with other companies also working on vaccines?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/16/german-company-curevac-says-no-offer-trump-coronavirus-vaccine/5062072002/

"By Monday, the White House had dismissed the charge, CureVac said it had no offer from the United States and the German government was meeting about the issue.

CureVac issued a news release on March 3 announcing that its CEO, Daniel Menichella, was invited to the White House to discuss vaccine development with Trump and members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, together with other companies working on vaccines."



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John2290 said:
Mnementh said:

We can. But it probably started in the US and troops participating in WW1 spread it into europe.

It was first reported in America yeah but it originated in China?

Hard to say. The chinese theory is based on lesser infection rates and the assumption they had natural immunity. But it can also be misreporting, the world wasn't as globalized back then can also be a reason or they had immunity from a similar strain. So there are different possible explanations.



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10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

jason1637 said:

424 new cases and 5 new deaths in New York State. 1374 total cases.

Edit: Governor Cuomo just said to expecr us to peak with the number of new cases in 45 days.

Uhoh, 45 days to peak expectsw a pretty high peak. But maybe it's worst case scenario.



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trunkswd said:
jason1637 said:

424 new cases and 5 new deaths in New York State. 1374 total cases.

Edit: Governor Cuomo just said to expecr us to peak with the number of new cases in 45 days.

45 days to peak?! So the beginning of May. I'm from New York and currently visiting family in Florida. 

Yeah seems like it. He did mention that if he can get NJ and Connecticut to agree to a lock down he will considernlocking down the state. His reasoning was that if he locks down the city people will go to Long Island,  if he locks down the state people will go to CT or NJ.



trunkswd said:
jason1637 said:

Yeah seems like it. He did mention that if he can get NJ and Connecticut to agree to a lock down he will considernlocking down the state. His reasoning was that if he locks down the city people will go to Long Island,  if he locks down the state people will go to CT or NJ.

There are way too many roads that go between NY and CT, and NY and NJ to lock people down from visiting other states. But yeah, if CT and NJ get locked down it might stop people from traveling. However, PA, MA and VT are all on the NY border as well. 

PA got shutdown yesterday. 



jason1637 said:

424 new cases and 5 new deaths in New York State. 1374 total cases.

Edit: Governor Cuomo just said to expecr us to peak with the number of new cases in 45 days.

45 days, that's half of the prediction for not doing anything at all. Total lock down shouldn't be longer than 2 weeks to peak (for the incubation period to run its course)

Big world, lots of different strategies. We'll know in a month which was the most successful, what was overkill and what was too little.


France is in total lock down, you need a special form to go outside.

Israel urges its citizens to remain home and go out only for “vital needs and services”. Shopping for food is allowed only if no delvery option is available. Parks, beaches and malls will be off-limits. People will be allowed to exercise outdoors for 10 minutes if nobody is nearby

Austria Vienna Airport’s traffic at bare minimum
rail transport down 70%
Restrictions already in place include:
- gatherings of more than five people are banned
- people are urged to self-isolate
- schools and shops selling non-essential goods are closed
- borders with Italy and Switzerland are closed
- no restrictions in place along the border with Germany which has, however, introduced its own border controls
- visitors from Britain, the Netherlands, Russia and Ukraine can enter only under certain conditions

Most other countries are closing schools, closing restaurants and banning gatherings over 50 people.

Some do less. Holland for example is keeping schools and day cares open for children of people with essential jobs. (From healthcare, to police, stores, transport, media, government). Probably not smart to have these people infecting each other through schools and day cares, just my 2 cents...


The world as a giant beta test for what to do after the initial wave is slowed down :/