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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

I don't know how they get to those 45 days. It looks like Italy is stabilizing, growth factor for the last 4 days is 1.01x, pretty much flat, yet still 3,500 new cases daily. So it looks like Italy reached its peak in new daily cases 15 days after passing 1,000 cases total. (Which seems to be the point where governments go into full distancing measures) Of course the total active cases will continue to grow for another 2 weeks at least.

It's probably because they're thinking moderate social distancing will be enough, instead of a full lockown. Otherwise it would take just a few weeks + lingering cases as some people continue to get infected from domestic undetected cases and the asymptomatic.

I hope Italy is sensible and starts lifting the lockdown in each province as they go, say, 18 - 21 days without new cases. At least some parts of the country can continue functioning like in China, else the recession would be... well, really bad.



 

 

 

 

 

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donathos said:
I've been hearing about the problem of not having enough ventilators for a while, now.

That... seems like a thing to address? I mean, I don't know the business of producing ventilators. Perhaps they are exclusively handcrafted by Nepalese monks from adolescent unicorn's horns. Perhaps. But in the lead-up to the crushing spikes we're all anticipating (especially since folks are still crowding open restaurants, beaches, bars, theme parks, etc.), perhaps we can put in an order or two. Seems to me that since we've had this whole "industrial revolution" thing, we know a thing or two about mass production. So why not get to producing?

(And I'm certain it's not that easy, for any number of reasons, but at the same time: we turned car factories into tank factories, when we needed to.)

Our prime minster, just went on tv to talk about new meassures taken, and rules ect.

At one point, they mentioned that we originally had like 780 ventilators (of the advanced type) and they just got like 200 more (resently), and we're part of a joint project in europe to buy and assemble more ventilators (distrubuted amoung european countries), so this number is likely to rise in the near future.

So I expect, every other country in the world is probably also trying to get their hands on them these days.


Out of 977 infected in denmark (now), we apparently have 80 or so, that are hospitalised.
16 are under intensive care.
2 people require these advanced ventilators.

so its simple math.

980+ ventilators, and 2 needed by CoVid-19 patients.

As long as the spread rate doesnt drastically increase, apparently it should be fine here (in denmark).

*knock on wood*



SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Yeah france is going full on china mode, now.
They have people running around spraying and disinfecting everything too.

Denmark is also telling everyone to stay home unless its "needed" to head out (ei. food/medicine that sort of thing).
Also theres hand sanitiser before entering to super markets, and marked lines you need to stay at in cues when you go shopping.

Its scary if this really is just the start of the spread.
If peaks wont be hit for another 45 days.... damn.

I don't know how they get to those 45 days. It looks like Italy is stabilizing, growth factor for the last 4 days is 1.01x, pretty much flat, yet still 3,500 new cases daily. So it looks like Italy reached its peak in new daily cases 15 days after passing 1,000 cases total. (Which seems to be the point where governments go into full distancing measures) Of course the total active cases will continue to grow for another 2 weeks at least./

In China the daily new cases (first) peaked on Feb 4 (3,800 new cases that day), while the active case load peaked on Feb 17. The data is a bit messy for China though since they had a huge backlog on testing. On Feb 4, China had 23K active cases, taking March 15th for the growth peak in Italy, 21K cases. China peaked at 58K active cases on Feb 17, Italy won't be far behind that number. It's all pretty similar so far. Anyway with the limited data available, Italy's active case load will probably peak around March 28th at around 52K, 29 days after passing the 1,000 total cases.

Of course if the new cases go up again in the next few days in Italy, all the math changes again.

And the grim realization is that when you get the growth rate under control, your active case load is still set to increase by 2.5x. And in China, still 6x more people died after Februari 4th (first growth peak) than up to Februari 4th. Math is not friendly here because if that copies over, almost 12K more deaths can happen in Italy :(

It's possible this is true. It's also possible that they simply don't have the resources/time/personnel to perform any more tests per day, and therefore the number is artificially capped. 



haxxiy said:
SvennoJ said:

I don't know how they get to those 45 days. It looks like Italy is stabilizing, growth factor for the last 4 days is 1.01x, pretty much flat, yet still 3,500 new cases daily. So it looks like Italy reached its peak in new daily cases 15 days after passing 1,000 cases total. (Which seems to be the point where governments go into full distancing measures) Of course the total active cases will continue to grow for another 2 weeks at least.

It's probably because they're thinking moderate social distancing will be enough, instead of a full lockown. Otherwise it would take just a few weeks + lingering cases as some people continue to get infected from domestic undetected cases and the asymptomatic.

I hope Italy is sensible and starts lifting the lockdown in each province as they go, say, 18 - 21 days without new cases. At least some parts of the country can continue functioning like in China, else the recession would be... well, really bad.

China is still getting new cases, it's not going to stop. Total lock down won't be necessary when the numbers get under control, but social distancing will need to be maintained until a vaccine or cure is ready. How moderate will be effective enough remains to be seen.



Nautilus said:
jason1637 said:

Well in the US most people who get the flu recovered. So far most people who got coronavirus have died

Most people who got COVID-19 recovered...

Finished cases 74 people recovered and 99 died.



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jason1637 said:
Nautilus said:

Most people who got COVID-19 recovered...

Finished cases 74 people recovered and 99 died.

Total cases of corona virus(the official numbers at least) is 196k cases, 80k recovered and 8k death.

How is that most people?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

SvennoJ said:

haxxiy said:

China is still getting new cases, it's not going to stop. Total lock down won't be necessary when the numbers get under control, but social distancing will need to be maintained until a vaccine or cure is ready. How moderate will be effective enough remains to be seen.

China had literally 1 non-imported case today. It can be done.



 

 

 

 

 

jason1637 said:
Nautilus said:

Most people who got COVID-19 recovered...

Finished cases 74 people recovered and 99 died.

To be fair "Coronavirus update live" site doesnt always show 100% accurate numbers.

In denmark it shows "1" person recovered, but its actually alot higher (in the papers/tv theres been interviews with people recovered).
Its just we dont keep track of those numbers, and or hand them out.  I assume its just the site lacking the current info in that reguard.



Nautilus said:
jason1637 said:

Finished cases 74 people recovered and 99 died.

Total cases of corona virus(the official numbers at least) is 196k cases, 80k recovered and 8k death.

How is that most people?

We were talking about American numbers.



John2290 said:
haxxiy said:

China had literally 1 non-imported case today. It can be done.

And you expect the virus to just stop? It would take the entire world, every last person to stand in place, 15 feet away from each other for 27 days to get it to stop. 

Well, that's exactly what happens when a virus infects less than one person for every new case, and eventually the last person fully recovers. SARS disappeared like that, no vaccines needed.

A month of lockdown everywhere that has the virus would be ideal.